USD/JPY Forecast May 12-16

The Japanese yen enjoyed the weakness of the greenback and USD/JPY dropped. Can it bounce from uptrend support?The main event of this busy week is the release of GDP for the first quarter. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The big fall in the USD gave a boost to the yen, which had a slow start to the week due to the holiday. Yellen’s soft words in two testimonies had little positive impact, but the pair managed to stabilize above the moderate uptrend support line. The focus now shifts to Japan.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s balances have tipped negative as a result of the 2011 catastrophe. The country is importing energy. Nevertheless, the current account deficit remains small and it squeezed to 0.04 trillion yen in February. A wider deficit is likely now.
2. Bank Lending: Sunday, 23:50. Growth in bank lending is yet another measure of money expansion and inflation which the Bank of Japan targets. In March, the y/y rate of lending slid from 2.2% to 2.1%. A similar figure is likely for April.
3. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This PMI-like scale measures workers’ about their future expectations. In March, this indicator surprised with a jump from 53 to 57.9 points, indicating stronger growth. A significant drop is due now.
4. Machine Tool Orders: Monday, 6:00. This is the preliminary version for April. Year over year growth in the back end of the industry rose by 41.8%, a jump from 26.1% in March and certainly a positive sign. Similar strong growth is expected now. 
5. M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. The growth of money is eyed by the BOJ to see monetary expansion. A disappointing rise of 3.5% was seen in March, and a faster growth rate of around 4%, in line with previous months, is likely for April.
6. CGPI: Tuesday, 23:50. This Corporate Goods Price Index rose by 1.7% in March, slowing down. This measure of price growth at the corporate level is now expected to rise together with the sales tax hike.
7. GDP: Wednesday, 23:50. Japan disappointed in the last quarter of 2014 with a growth rate of only 0.2%, even slower than in the third quarter. A stronger rate is expected now for Q1. Note that this is the preliminary publication. Year over year, growth is expected to rise above 1%. The GDP deflation will also be eyed. It was negative last time, reflecting falling prices, and could turn positive now.
8. Tertiary Industry Activity: Wednesday, 23:50. The indicator measures services bought by companies. A disappointing drop of 1% was recorded for the month of February. A bounce back is expected for March, especially in light of the tax hike in April.
9. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 5:00. No less than 5000 households are surveyed by the government to measure the economic climate in Japan. After standing above 40 points for several months, this indicator disappointed and dropped below the round number in the past two months, reaching 37.5 points in March. Another fall is due for April.
10. Industrial Production: Friday, 4:30. The final version of industrial production for March is expected to confirm the gain of 0.3% reported in the initial publication. Note that this figure is quite volatile.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen began the week by holding onto the 102 level, but this not last too long. The pair eventually lost the line and dug lower, moving towards the 101.20 line mentioned last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom

The top line is the peak seen in the turn of the year: 105.44. This was challenged several times. Below, 104.80 capped the pair during January.

104.10, the high of April 2014 is currently a minor line, but should be watched. Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges.

102.74 was a stubborn peak during February and is the top line of the current trading range. 102.00 is a round number that supported the pair several times and is the botom of the range.

101.20 provided strong support for the pair during March 2014 and is the low line of support. 100.75 prevented the pair from falling lower during February and is the last backstop before the round number of 100.

100 is not just a round number but also worked as resistance several times in the past.

Moderate uptrend support

We can observe a moderate uptrend support line (thick black line) accompanying the pair since early March. We have seen a retest of this line once again.

I am bullish  on USD/JPY

The market wanted to sell the US dollar, and the Japanese yen is no exception. In Japan, monetary policy is probably going to remain unchanged, even if there still is a chance for more stimulus. After the big falls we have seen of late, the pair could stabilize. The “sell USD” attitude could change now.