Asia stocks fall on U.S. data, Fed comments; Nikkei slides 0.27%

Asian stocks were mixed to lower on Friday after U.S. economic indicators stirred fears the world's largest economy is facing building headwinds that are slowing recovery.

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also pushed Asian shares lower as well.

During Asian trading on Friday, Australia's S&P/ASX200 was up 0.21%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index was down 0.27%. Hong Kong markets were closed on holiday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index fell to -5.2 in May from 1.3 in April. 

Analysts were expecting the index to improve to a reading of 2.4 in May. 

The Department of Labor said earlier Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 32,000 to 360,000 last week, well above expectations for an increase of 2,000 to 330,000.

Soft U.S. inflation data chipped into stock prices in Asia as well.

The country's consumer price index fell 0.4% in April from March, worse than expectations for a 0.2% decline, down for the second consecutive month.

Year-on-year inflation rates in the U.S. came to 1.1%, just shy of market expectations for a 1.3% reading and well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Meanwhile in the housing sector, the Commerce Department said the number of building permits issued in the U.S. rose 14.3% to 1.017 million units in April, well above expectations for a 6.2% increase to 945,000 units.

U.S. housing starts fell by 16.5% last month to 853,000 units, outpacing expectations for a decline of 4.9% to 973,000.

Weak data in the U.S. often pushes global stock prices up by stoking sentiments the Fed will keep stimulus measures in place, especially its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program, which floods the economy with cheap dollars, which weakens the greenback and keeps borrowing costs low, making stocks worldwide an attractive venue.

However, in the U.S. earlier, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams suggested that despite disappointing economic indicators in the U.S., monetary authorities may begin to scale back stimulus policies later this year.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, a known inflation hawk, added separately that the Fed should even consider scaling back the programs next month.

Meanwhile in Japan, the Economic and Social Research Institute reported that the country's core machinery orders rose 14.2% in March, the largest monthly pickup in eight years.

Analysts had expected Japan’s core machinery orders to rise 2.8% in March.

In Australia, top gainers included Aquila Resources, up 6.57%, and Imdex, up 6.21%, and Energy World Corporation, up 5.13%

In Australia, top decliners included WorleyParsons down 10.77%, Gryphon Minerals, down 8.70%, Kingsgate Consolidated, down 5.46%. 

European stock futures indicated a higher opening.

France's CAC 40 futures pointed to a gain of 0.10%, while Germany's DAX 30 futures pointed to a gain of 0.07%. Meanwhile in the U.K., FTSE 100 futures were up 0.09%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.17%, while the S&P 500 futures were up 0.15%.

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Forex - EUR/USD flat to higher on soft U.S. factory, inflation data

FTS - Forex Trading:- The euro brushed off weak eurozone growth data and rose against the greenback in Asian trading on Friday after a wave of disappointing output, inflation and other reports hit the wire one after the other in the U.S. on Thursday.

The numbers convinced investors that the Federal Reserve will go slow when it decides to scale back stimulus measures.

Monetary stimulus tools, such as low interest rates, dovish language and the Fed's monthly USD85 billion asset-purchasing program, weaken the dollar to spur recovery.

In Asian trading on Friday, EUR/USD was up 0.03% at 1.2882, up from a session low of 1.2878 and off from a high of 1.2890.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2844, Wednesday's low, and resistance at 1.3029, Tuesday's high.

In the U.S. earlier, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its manufacturing index fell to -5.2 in May from 1.3 in April. 

Analysts were expecting the index to improve to a reading of 2.4 in May, which fueled sentiments that loose policies at the Federal Reserve aren't going to wind down anytime soon as did disappointing numbers out of the labor market. 

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 32,000 to 360,000 last week, well above expectations for an increase of 2,000 to 330,000.

Soft inflation data took the steam out of the dollar as well.

The country's consumer price index fell 0.4% in April from March, worse than expectations for a 0.2% decline, down for the second consecutive month.

Year-on-year inflation rates in the U.S. came to 1.1%, just shy of market expectations for a 1.3% reading and well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Conflicting data out of the housing industry dampened the dollar as well.

The Commerce Department said the number of building permits issued in the U.S. rose 14.3% to 1.017 million units in April, well above expectations for a 6.2% increase to 945,000 units.

U.S. housing starts, however, fell by 16.5% last month to 853,000 units, outpacing expectations for a decline of 4.9% to 973,000.

Thursday's data came in wake of soft industrial output and producer-price reports released on Wednesday.

The dollar saw some support on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials earlier.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams suggested earlier that despite hit-or-miss economic indicators, monetary authorities may begin to scale back the program later this year.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, a known inflation hawk, added separately that the Fed should consider scaling back the program next month.

Still, the dollar remained weak against the single currency on sentiments that policy shifts will come very gradually in the U.S.

In Europe, meanwhile, the eurozone said its consumer price index rose 1.2% on year in April, in line with expectations.

A separate report revealed that the eurozone posted a record trade surplus in March as imports fell 1% from February, while exports grew 2.8%.

The euro, meanwhile, was down against the pound and down against the yen, with EUR/GBP trading down 0.02% at 0.8434, and EUR/JPYtrading down 0.13% at 131.57.

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Flash: EUR/USD may be on the verge of sharper falls - TDS

FTS Forex Trading (Lagos, Nigeria) - The broader trend in the big US dollar remains geared towards more strength, says Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at TD Securities.

Shaun notes: "We think EUR/USD may be on the verge of another significant move lower. Fundamentals support the outlook for a stronger USD at least in the medium-term. Technicals suggest that the move lower that we are anticipating over the next 12-18 months may come a bit quicker and be a little more pronounced than our current forecast profile suggests."

From a technical perspective, Shaun notes two important issues: "Firstly, for the first time since last October, the 40-day moving average is poised to cross (below, in this instance) the 200-day moving average. We consider the 40- and 200-day MA crosses to be important directional guides for EUR/USD. In the past few years, the crossovers have been reliable directional indicators."

"We think short EUR positions are warranted now on modest EUR gains back through the 1.30 area or on a clear break of support in the upper 1.27 area" Shaun concludes.

EUR/USD May 17 at 00:00 GMT

1.2882/84 (0.00%)

H1.2892 L 1.2878 

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2750	1.2782	1.2814	1.2915	1.2947	1.2980

Trend Index[?]	OB/OS Index[?]
Data updated on May 16 a 23:45 GMT (15-minute timeframe)
Slightly Bullish	Neutral

• 1D
• 1M
• 3M
• 1Y

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Forex Trading Signal for 17 May 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

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EUR/USD

Down Trend :

 (1) SELL

E/P: 1.28816

T/P: 1.28500

S/L: 1.29116

(2) BUY

E/P: 1.28865

T/P: 1.29000

S/L: 1.28565

GBP/USD

Up Trend:

(1) BUY

E/P: 1.52661

T/P: 1.53000

S/L: 1.52261

(2) BUY

E/P: 1.52781

T/P: 1.53000

S/L: 1.52400

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U.S stocks dip on Fed comments, weak data; Dow falls 0.28%

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday after Federal Reserve officials suggested monetary stimulus tools could begin to unwind later this year despite spotty economic indicators.

At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 0.28%, the S&P 500 index ended down 0.50%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.18%.

The Fed is currently buying USD85 billion in assets from banks a month, a monetary stimulus tool known as quantitative easing that weakens the greenback and floods the economy with liquidity to spur recovery and job demand.

Stocks rise as a side effect to such policies, though Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams suggested earlier that despite hit-or-miss economic indicators, monetary authorities may begin to scale back the program later this year.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser added separately that the Fed should consider scaling back the program next month.

The news sent stocks dipping by wiping out earlier sentiments that weak indicators may convince the Fed to keep loose policies in play longer than expected.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index fell to -5.2 in May from 1.3 in April. 

Analysts were expecting the index to improve to a reading of 2.4 in May, which fueled earlier sentiments that loose policies at the Federal Reserve aren't going to wind down anytime soon as before comments out of the U.S. central banks suggested otherwise. 

The Department of Labor said earlier Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 32,000 to 360,000 last week, well above expectations for an increase of 2,000 to 330,000.

Soft inflation data took the steam out of the dollar as well.

The country's consumer price index fell 0.4% in April from March, worse than expectations for a 0.2% decline, down for the second consecutive month.

Year-on-year inflation rates in the U.S. came to 1.1%, just shy of market expectations for a 1.3% reading and well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Spotty data out of the housing industry dampened spirits as well.

The Commerce Department said the number of building permits issued in the U.S. rose 14.3% to 1.017 million units in April, well above expectations for a 6.2% increase to 945,000 units.

U.S. housing starts fell by 16.5% last month to 853,000 units, outpacing expectations for a decline of 4.9% to 973,000.

Thursday's data came in wake of soft industrial output and producer-price reports released on Wednesday.

Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average performers included Cisco, up 12.64% on better-than-expected earings, Hewlett-Packard, up 1.91%, and UnitedHealth Group, up 0.84%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst performers included Walt Disney, down 1.79%, Wal-Mart, down 1.73%, and Home Depot, down 1.44%.

European indices, meanwhile, finished largely lower.

After the close of European trade, the EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.01%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.08%, while Germany's DAX 30 finished up 0.09%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 finished down 0.09%.

On Friday, the U.S. will release preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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Forex - Dollar slips on slew of disappointing economic indicators

FTS Forex Trading:- A second consecutive day of disappointing economic indicators in the U.S. and Europe sent the dollar falling against most major currencies on Thursday, mainly by stoking concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary stimulus tool in place for longer than once anticipated. 

Stimulus measures, such as the Fed's monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program, weaken the greenback by flooding the economy full of liquidity to keep interest rates low and encourage investing and hiring.

In U.S. trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was down 0.10% at 1.2875.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index fell to -5.2 in May from 1.3 in April. 

Analysts were expecting the index to improve to a reading of 2.4 in May, which fueled sentiments that loose policies at the Federal Reserve aren't going to wind down anytime soon as did disappointing numbers out of the labor market. 

The Department of Labor said earlier Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 32,000 to 360,000 last week, well above expectations for an increase of 2,000 to 330,000.

Soft inflation data took the steam out of the dollar as well.

The country's consumer price index fell 0.4% in April from March, worse than expectations for a 0.2% decline, down for the second consecutive month.

Year-on-year inflation rates in the U.S. came to 1.1%, just shy of market expectations for a 1.3% reading and well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Spotty data out of the housing industry dampened the dollar as well.

The Commerce Department said the number of building permits issued in the U.S. rose 14.3% to 1.017 million units in April, well above expectations for a 6.2% increase to 945,000 units.

U.S. housing starts fell by 16.5% last month to 853,000 units, outpacing expectations for a decline of 4.9% to 973,000.

Thursday's data came in wake of soft industrial output and producer-price reports released on Wednesday.

Soft indicators out of Europe, however, cushioned the dollar's losses by bolstering the greenback's use as a safe-haven due to its liquidity.

On Wednesday, official data revealed that the eurozone economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to March, a little more than analysts' calls for a 0.1% contraction.

Earlier Thursday, the eurozone said its consumer price index rose 1.2% on year in April, in line with expectations.

A separate report revealed that the eurozone posted a record trade surplus in March as imports fell 1% from February, while exports grew 2.8%.

The greenback, meanwhile, was down against the pound, with GBP/USDtrading up 0.21% at 1.5268.

The dollar erased earlier losses against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.03% at 102.28, and down against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading down 0.12% at 0.9636.

The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, mainly on fears cheaper commodities will cut into growth, withUSD/CAD up 0.29% at 1.0188, AUD/USD down 0.83% at 0.9816 andNZD/USD trading down 0.96% at 0.8161.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.01% at 83.90. 

On Friday, the U.S. will release preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Goes Negative – Dollar Slides

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for May dropped to -5.2. It was expected to rise from 1.3 to 2.5 points. This is a very early indicator of manufacturing, and therefore has a significant impact, even though manufacturing is definitely not the biggest sector in the US. The disappointing number joins a growing list of shortfalls in the last few days.

EUR/USD traded around 1.29 before the publication and it hit immediately afterwards. USD/JPY traded around 102.20 and is struggling to hold on to 102. GBP/USD is getting close to 1.53, and AUD/USD is making an attempt to recapture the 0.9850 line it lost earlier.

The forward looking new orders component plunged to -7.9 – the lowest since June 2012. The employment component fell to -8.7, which is the lowest since September 2009, and is quite worrying.

Expectations may have been a bit lower after the negative Empire State Manufacturing Indexreleased yesterday.

Earlier, the US reported mostly disappointing figures: jobless claims leaped from the lows of 328K to 360K, within the previous range. This sent the dollar lower across the board. In addition, CPI showed no inflationary pressures whatsoever, and housing figures were mixed.

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Dollar mixed vs. rivals after disappointing U.S. data

FTS Forex Trading:- The dollar remained lower against the euro and the yen on Thursday after a series of disappointing U.S. data releases dampened speculation over a possible near-term exit from the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program.

During U.S. morning trade, the dollar edged lower against the yen, withUSD/JPY slipping 0.29% to 101.95, off session highs of 102.69.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index fell to minus 5.2 in May from April’s reading of 1.3. Analysts had expected the index to improve to a reading of 2.4 in May. 

The data came after the Department of Labor said number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 360,000 last week, compared to expectations for an increase of 2,000 to 330,000.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in the U.S. fell 0.4% in April, compared to expectations for a 0.2% decline, down for the second consecutive month.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said the number of building permits issued in the U.S. rose 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted 1.017 million in April, above expectations for a 3.8% increase to 0.973 million units.

However, U.S. housing starts fell by 16.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted 0.853 million, compared to expectations for a decline of 6.4% to 0.973 million.

Earlier Thursday, official data showed that Japan’s economy expanded by a larger than forecast 0.9% in the first quarter, indicating that Japan’s new monetary easing measures are bolstering consumer spending.

The euro rebounded from almost six-week lows against the dollar, withEUR/USD adding 0.23% to 1.2917.

In the euro zone, official data confirmed that consumer price inflation fell 0.1% in April from the previous month, with the annual rate of inflation slowing to 1.2% from 1.7% in March.

A separate report showed that the euro zone posted a record trade surplus in March as imports fell 1% from February, while exports grew 2.8%.

On Wednesday, data showed that the euro zone economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to March bringing the annualized rate of decline to 0.9%.

The dollar was lower against the pound and the Swiss franc, withGBP/USD gaining 0.45% to 0.9600 and USD/CHF declining 0.52% to trade at 0.9597.

The greenback was higher against its Australian, New Zealand and Canadian counterparts, with AUD/USD retreating 0.44% to 0.9854,NZD/USD dropping 0.55% to 0.8194 and USD/CAD edging 0.06% higher to 1.0164.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.30% to 83.65.

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