Forex Trading Signals for 5th November 2012

BUY on the market: GBP/USD
BUY : 
Entry Point : 1.60294
Take Profit:   1.60500
Stop Loss:    1.60000

 2nd,,

SELL on GBP/USD : 
Entry Point : 1.60505

Take Profit:   1.60300
Stop Loss:    1.60800
--> --> 


We will BUY on the market: EUR/USD
--> BUY : 
Entry Point : 1.28304

Take Profit:   1.28500
Stop Loss:    1.28000

2nd  SELL on the market,,,

SELL : 
Entry Point : 1.28649

Take Profit:  1.28300
Stop Loss:   1.29000

Wish you all a successful forex trading. Always remember to use your stop loss to avoid much loss on your trading account,,,

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EUR/USD Pair, a fall coming?

Near term EUR/USD outlook: last Friday the market was lower after breaking below the Bullish trend-line base of the possible triangle that had been forming since September, currently at 1.2960/75, now the Resistance.

This is seen as a Bearish sign and raises the potential for further Southside acceleration ahead

Note: from an Elliott Wave analyst’s perspective, the market may be within wave iii, from the 17 October high at 1.3135, of a larger wave 3, from the September high at 1.3165, see the numbering on daily chart below and adds to the potential for a further, downside acceleration ahead, the so called “3rd of 3rd” waves are often the most “explosive” part of a cycle). Nearby support is seen in the 1.2805/30, 200-Day MA and 1 October low, and the base of the Bearish channel since the September high at 1.2750/65.

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--> Strategy/position: Short from the 23rd of October sell at 1.2975, with potential for a further downside acceleration ahead and increased likelihood that a more major Top is in place, so would stay with that position. Used a close above the Bearish trend-line from the mid October high as a Stop and though it traded above temporarily early last week, it did nto closed above that mark, for now will continue to Stop above that trend-line, and making a small adjustment for the temp break above, currently at 1.2990/00.

Longer term outlook: looking for a multi-month period of ranging higher from the July low, before resuming the longer term decline. Expected a final, short-lived push above the September high at 1.3165 before completing a more important top, but given the nearer term bearish outlook, looks more like that Top is in place. This targets a eventual decline to the July low at 1.2045 and lower, the seasonal chart points sharply higher into the end of the year and raises some risk for another few months of choppy/volatility as part of a broader topping.

Strategy/position: with the likelihood increased that a more important top is in place, and correction since July is finally “complete”, would switch the longer term Neutral bias, from 31 July at 1.2300 back to the Bearish side here, currently at 1.2845.

Current: short 16 October at 1.2975, stop on close above Bear t-line from mid October now at 1.2990/00.
Last : short Oct 9th at 1.2870, stopped Oct 16th on close above 1.3020 (closed at 1.3050).

Longer term: Bearish bias 2 November at 1.2845, some risk for another month or 2 of a broader topping.
Last : Neutral 31 July at 1.2300 from Bearish 15 February at 1.3085, warned of few months of correcting.

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Hong Kong is the World’s Finance Center

Hong Kong has been chosen the world’s number one financial center for the second straight years, by the World Economic Forum.

The city shows strength in its business environment, infrastructure and favorable tax scheme, the organization said in a report.

“This year, Hong Kong not only maintains its position, but also manages to increase its relative score, thereby creating a wider gap between it and United States,” the WEF said in a report.

The United States, Britain, Singapore, Australia and Canada followed Hong Kong on the list this year. The top six remained unchanged from 2011, owing to slow global recovery and capital flows, the WEF said.

Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Sweden also made to the top ten this year.

Mainland Chinese shares lifted Hong Kong markets with their best daily performance in nearly a month on Thursday, boosted by stronger Chinese economic data and a report that more city governments were easing restrictions on the real estate sector.

The state-run China Securities Journal reported on Thursday that as many as six Chinese cities have made it easier to obtain funds for home purchases which will, in turn, bolster land sales, a major revenue source for local governments.

The Hang Seng Index went into the midday trading break 0.6 percent higher at 21,772.6, just shy of the year’s intra-day highs of 21,847.7. The China Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong rose 0.8 percent.

The CSI300 Index of the top Shanghai and Shenzhen listings jumped 2.1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.8 percent. Both indices are set for their respective best daily performance since October 9, outshining Asian peers on the day.

In Hong Kong, traders said some investors were rotating out of Hong Kong developers and into Chinese developers, with the worst seemingly over for the latter and some major Chinese developers reported positive third-quarter earnings.

On the other hand, some investors expect more policy curbs in Hong Kong could be in store because of greater capital inflows.

--> China Overseas Land & Investment reversed early losses to go into the midday break up 1.2 percent. China Resources Land was up 1.4 percent.

Hong Kong developers Cheung Kong Holdings was up 0.5 percent, while Henderson Land edged up 0.6 percent — both recovering from steep losses earlier this week after Hong Kong announced late last Friday demand-side home purchase curbs on the sector aimed at reducing foreign demand.

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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: November 4 - 9

Forexpros - The pound was lower against the broadly stronger U.S. dollar on Friday, after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted demand for the greenback, while uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. presidential elections also weighed.

GBP/USD hit 1.6174 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since October 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6020 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.46% for the week.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.5935, the low of October 24 and resistance at 1.6132, Friday’s high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts for an increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in September as more people re-entered the labor force. 

The stronger-than-expected data saw investor’s trim back expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for the greenback.

Demand for the greenback continued to be underpinned by uncertainty over the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections, with opinion polls indicating a dead heat between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Investors are concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

Market sentiment was also hit by ongoing uncertainty over when Spain may request a bailout and whether Greece can implement austerity measures in order to secure the next tranche of its bailout funding.

The pound was higher against the greenback earlier in the session after data showed that the U.K.’s construction purchasing managers’ index for October rose to 50.9 from 49.5 the previous month, beating expectations for a decline to 49.1.

The data added to hopes for a sustained economic recovery after official data in late October showed that the U.K. economy emerged from a recession in the third quarter.

On Thursday, a report showed that the U.K. manufacturing PMI fell to 47.5 in October from a reading of 48.4 in September, compared to expectations for a dip to 48.1.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections and looking ahead to policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

In addition, market participants will be awaiting any further developments in the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Forexpros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 4

The U.K. is to release data on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, November 6

--> The U.K. is to release official data on manufacturing and industrial production, leading indicators of economic health.

In the U.S, voting in the U.S. presidential elections is to take place.

Wednesday, November 7

The U.S. is to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 8

The U.K. is to publish official data on the trade balance, while the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 9

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 4 - 9

Forexpros - The euro fell to a one-month low against the broadly stronger U.S. dollar on Friday, as demand for the greenback was boosted by better-than-expected U.S. jobs data, while uncertainty over the U.S. presidential elections also weighed on market sentiment.

EUR/USD hit 1.2949 on Friday, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2832, 0.84% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2753, the low of September 11 and resistance at 1.2949, Friday’s high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts for an increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in September as more people re-entered the labor force. 

The stronger-than-expected data saw investor’s trim back expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for the greenback.

The dollar also found support amid uncertainty over the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections, with opinion polls indicating a dead heat between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Investors are concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

Sentiment on the single currency was hit by ongoing uncertainty over when Spain may request a bailout and whether Greece can implement austerity measures in order to secure the next tranche of its bailout funding.

Earlier Friday, a report showed that the final euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for October came in at 45.4, contracting for the 15th successive month as output and new orders fell.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections and looking ahead to policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

In addition, market participants will be awaiting any further developments in the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Forexpros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 4

The euro zone is to produce a report on investor confidence, an important indicator of economic health. Elsewhere, Spain is to publish official data on employment change, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on service sector activity.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, November 6

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

In the U.S, voting in the U.S. presidential elections is to take place.

Wednesday, November 7
-->
The euro zone is to produce official data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, while Germany is to produce official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 8

In the euro zone, the eurogroup of finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels to discuss financial issues in the bloc. In addition, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi to discuss the monetary policy decision.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 9

In the euro zone, France and Italy are to release official data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

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