Forex - EUR/USD falls on U.S. data, ongoing talk of ECB rate cut

The euro moved lower against the dollar on Wednesday after U.S. durable goods orders missed expectations, while ongoing talk that the European Central Bank may trim interest rates to kick-start recovery kept the single currency lower.

In U.S. trading on Wednesday, EUR/USD was down 0.06% at 1.2996, up from a session low of 1.2956 and off from a high of 1.3034.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2956, the earlier low, and resistance at 1.3084, Monday's high.

In the U.S. earlier, the Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods dropped 5.7% in March, well beyond expectations for a decline of 2.8%. 

Durable goods for February were revised down to a 4.3% gain from a previously reported 5.6% increase.

The news prompted many market participants to take up safe-haven dollar positions, though gains were muted by contrasting sentiments that the Federal Reserve won't rush to dismantle stimulus programs such as its monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program.

Monetary stimulus tools tend to weaken paper currencies as side effects.

Meanwhile in Europe, weeks of disappointing economic indicators have more and more investors speculating the ECB may consider cutting interest rates.

In Europe earlier, the Ifo index of German business climate fell to a four-month low of 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March.

Analysts had expected the index to tick down to 106.2.

The report came in wake of weaker-than-expected German and eurozone industrial production and service-sector output figures, which stoked expectations for the ECB to cut benchmark borrowing costs.

The euro, meanwhile, was down against the pound and down against the yen, with EUR/GBP trading down 0.10% at 0.8524, and EUR/JPYtrading down 0.09% at 129.21.

On Thursday, Spain is to publish official data on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to release a weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

-->

Read More

Dollar edges higher vs. euro, slips vs. yen

The dollar edged higher against the euro on Wednesday, but slipped against the yen after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in March.

During U.S. morning trade, the dollar inched up against the euro, withEUR/USD dipping 0.09% to 1.2990.

The euro recovered from two-week lows against the dollar earlier in the session as European equities climbed and peripheral euro zone bond yields fell amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates, while hopes that Italy will soon have a government also lent support.

Enrico Letta, deputy leader of the Democratic Party was named as Italy’s prime minister by President Giorgio Napolitano on Wednesday and pledged to form a coalition government to end two months of political deadlock.

But sentiment on the single currency remained fragile after a report showed that the Ifo index of German business climate fell to a four month low of 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March.

Analysts had expected the index to tick down to 106.2.

The data came one day after a report showed that Germany’s manufacturing and service sectors contracted in April.

Recent comments by ECB officials have indicated that the bank would consider cutting rates if economic data continued to deteriorate.

The dollar edged lower against the yen, with USD/JPY dipping 0.09% to 99.37, off session highs of 99.77.

The dollar erased gains against the yen after official data showed that U.S. durable goods orders dropped 5.7% in March, much worse than expectations for a decline of 2.8%. 

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, fell 1.4%, compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase. 

The dollar remained lower against the pound, with GBP/USD rising 0.21% to trade at 1.5270. 

Investors remained wary ahead of preliminary data on U.K. first quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, amid cautious optimism that the economy would narrowly avoid a triple-dip recession.

The dollar was higher against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF climbing 0.39% to 0.9485.

The greenback was mixed against its Australian, New Zealand and Canadian counterparts, with AUD/USD edging down 0.03% to 1.0258,NZD/USD advancing 0.55% to 0.8443 and USD/CAD inching up 0.09% to 1.0267.

The New Zealand dollar was boosted after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at 2.5% earlier and said they were likely to remain on hold for the rest of this year.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained under pressure after weaker-than-forecast first quarter inflation data sparked renewed speculation over further rate cuts in the coming months.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, dipped 0.03% to 83.13.

-->

Read More

U.S. stocks mixed after disappointing data; Dow Jones up 0.03%

U.S. stocks were mixed on Wednesday, after the release of disappointing U.S. durable goods orders data, while expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank continued. 

During early U.S. trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 0.03%, the S&P 500 index added 0.16%, while the Nasdaq Composite index dipped 0.02%. 

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders dropped 5.7% last month, worse than expectations for a decline of 2.8%. 

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, fell 1.4% in March, compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase. 

Stocks found support earlier, amid mounting speculation over a rate cut by the ECB after a report showed that the Ifo index of German business climate fell to a four month low of 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March.

The data came one day after a report showed that Germany’s manufacturing and service sectors contracted in April. 

Apple saw shares plummet 2.74% after the tech giant on Tuesday bowed to investors' demands to share more of its USD145 billion cash pile. 

The iPhone maker also posted its first quarterly profit decline in more than a decade after market close. Shares were still up 0.19% in pre-market trade. 

AT&T shares dove 4.79% after the company reported a net loss of cellphone subscribers in the first quarter. 

Adding to losses, OPKO Health slipped 0.14% after announcing the acquisition of Israel-based biopharmaceutical company Prolor Biotech in an all-stock deal valued at USD480 million to expand its portfolio of specialty drugs. 

On the upside, Virgin Media gained 0.49% after the cable operator reported a 54% rise in first quarter free cash flow and announced a series of major business deals. 

Elsewhere, Yum Brands saw shares surge 6.84% after reporting late Tuesday that quarterly profit fell less than market expectations, despite a sharp drop in sales in its top China market. 

Financial stocks were also broadly higher, with Goldman Sachs adding 0.17% and JP Morgan gaining 0.39%, while Citigroup and Bank of America climbed 0.60% and 0.83% respectively. 

Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were higher. The EURO STOXX 50 jumped 1.15%, France’s CAC 40 rallied 1.15%, Germany's DAX advanced 1.03%, while Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.37%. 

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped 1.73%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rallied 2.19%. 

Read More

More dollar gains ahead

USD:  The market is pretty good at shaking off errant numbers on the durable goods side, with the biggest data surprise over the past year only seeing at most 12-15 pips change in EURUSD in the subsequent half hour of trading. Market looks for partial reversal from headline gain of 5.7% in March.

EUR: The German IFO data will be a key focus for the euro today after the release of weaker PMI data for Germany yesterday.  There are real fears that Germany may contract in the first quarter and this release could further shape those expectations.

Market was looking for fall in headline from 106.7 to 106.2, but that would now be met with modest relief rally on the euro after yesterday’s data. Update: the actual result was 104.4 and the euro is falling.

Idea of the Day

There will be a strong focus on the data out of Germany today and expectations are increasing that the ECB will cut rates when it meets next week. Once again, we are seeing changing dynamics in FX markets, with the dollar’s move to a strong positive correlation to US data surprises having been falling more recently.

It seems that the weaker being seen beyond the shores of the US is having an increasing impact on dollar dynamics, as both Europe and China have a more disappointing growth outlook.  The other point to note is that we are seeing a familiar patter emerge, namely early year optimism leading to second quarter disappointment, something that has been seen for the previous two years (see “Growth and FX” for more).  If this pattern continues, it could spell further gains for the dollar in the coming weeks.

Latest FX News

JPY: There was a fairly dramatic turn-around for the yen during Tuesday, the safe haven bid gained after the weak China data soon disappearing towards the end of the day. Once again, the market is eying up an attack of the 100 level on USDJPY.

EUR:  Another one of those days on Tuesday when the single currency was fighting against the 1.30 area vs. the USD, with the firmer French PMI data wrong-footing the market ahead of the weaker German numbers.  Decent bids were found in the interbank market around the 1.2980, a level to watch today ahead of the IFO numbers.

GBP:  Sterling starting the European session steady around the1.5250 area vs. the USD. Passing interest with the fact that the Bank of England has announced an extension to its funding for lending scheme designed to advance more loans to companies and small businesses.

AUD: The central bank’s preferred measure of inflation fell to 2.2% (from 2.3%) against expectations for a small rise. Inflation data only comes out quarterly is a big deal for markets.  At present, this data strengthens the case for the RBA being able to lower rates further later this year and the Aussie nudged modestly lower as a result, briefly pushing below 1.0240 before recovering into the European open. 

-->

Read More

Forex Trading Signals for 24th April 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

For more easy access,,,,,,Download our mobile application on your mobile :   Click Fxsignals 

EUR/USD

Down Trend : SELL

(1) SELL

E/P: 1.30136

T/P: 1.29800

S/L: 1.30500

(2) SELL

E/P: 1.29877

T/P: 1.29600

S/L: 1.30200

-->

GBP/USD

down Trend: SELL

(1) SELL

E/P: 1.52400

T/P: 1.52100

S/L: 1.52900

(2) BUY

E/P: 1.52598

T/P: 1.52800

S/L: 1.52200

Read More

Dollar higher vs. euro after dismal U.S. durables data

The dollar regained ground against the euro on Wednesday after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in March, reinforcing concerns over the global economic outlook.

During European afternoon trade, EUR/USD hit an intra-day low of 1.2992, down from session highs of 1.3034.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders dropped 5.7% last month, worse than expectations for a decline of 2.8%. 

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, fell 1.4% in March, compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase. 

The euro recovered from two-week lows against the greenback earlier in the session as European equities climbed amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates, while hopes that Italy will soon have a government also lent support.

Earlier Wednesday, a report showed that the Ifo index of German business climate fell to a four month low of 104.4 in April from 106.7 in March.

Analysts had expected the index to tick down to 106.2.

The data came one day after a report showed that Germany’s manufacturing and service sectors contracted in April.

Recent comments by ECB officials have indicated that the bank would consider cutting rates if economic data continued to deteriorate.

The dollar trimmed gains against the yen, with USD/JPY inching up 0.05% to 99.49, off session highs of 99.77.

The dollar remained lower against the pound, with GBP/USD rising 0.17% to trade at 1.5264. 

Investors remained wary ahead of preliminary data on U.K. first quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, amid cautious optimism that the economy would narrowly avoid a triple-dip recession.

The dollar was steady close to two-week highs against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF easing up 0.11% to 0.9459.

The greenback was broadly lower against its Australian, New Zealand and Canadian counterparts, with AUD/USD rising 0.14% to 1.0276,NZD/USD advancing 0.68% to 0.8457 and USD/CAD inching up 0.03% to 1.0261.

The New Zealand dollar was boosted after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at 2.5% earlier and said they were likely to remain on hold for the rest of this year.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained under pressure after weaker-than-forecast first quarter inflation data sparked renewed speculation over further rate cuts in the coming months.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, dipped 0.01% to 83.14. 

-->

Read More