Forex - EUR/USD pushes higher amid EU talks

The euro pushed higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as sentiment improved after European Union leaders allowed certain countries to take more time to lower budget deficits, while discussions over a possible bailout package for Cyprus continued. 

EUR/USD hit 1.3098 during European afternoon trade, the pair's highest since March 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3101, climbing 0.74%. 

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2999, the session low and resistance at 1.3158, the high of February 28. 

The euro gained ground after EU leaders endorsed “structural” budgetary assessments, granting countries such as France, Spain and Portugal extra time to bring down deficits. 

Speaking at a meeting in Brussels, EU officials said balanced budgets remained the goal however, and there was no talk of large-scale spending programs or bond issues. 

Meanwhile, EU and International Monetary Fund officials continued to work on a package for Cyprus, with hopes of presenting the outline of a bailout programme to euro zone finance experts later in the day. 

In the U.S., the Empire State manufacturing index fell less-than-expected in March, ticking down to 9.2 from a reading of 10 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 8.4 this month. 

A separate report showed that core consumer price inflation, which excluded food and energy, rose 0.2% in February after a 0.3% increase the previous month, in line with expectations. 

Consumer price inflation rose 0.7% last month, more than the expected 0.5% increase, following a flat reading in January. 

The euro was also higher against the pound with EUR/GBP adding 0.16%, to hit 0.8638. 

Also Friday, official data showed that consumer price inflation in the euro zone remained unchanged at an annualized rated of 1.8% in February, in line with expectations. 

Core consumer price inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, also remained unchanged in the single currency bloc last month at 1.3%, as expected.

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U.S. stocks lower on profit taking after data; Dow Jones down 0.28%

U.S. stocks opened lower on Friday, despite the release of positive U.S. economic reports, as investors locked in profits following the recent stock rally thanks to fresh optimism over a strengthening U.S. economic recovery 

During early U.S. trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.28%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.30%, while the Nasdaq Composite index edged down 0.18%. 

Official data showed that U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in February, beating expectations for a 0.4% increase, after a 0.1% fall the previous month. 

In addition, the Empire State manufacturing index fell less-than-expected in March, ticking down to 9.2 from a reading of 10 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 8.4 this month. 

A separate report showed that core consumer price inflation, which excluded food and energy, rose 0.2% in February after a 0.3% increase the previous month, in line with expectations. 

Consumer price inflation rose 0.7% last month, more than the expected 0.5% increase, following a flat reading in January. 

Financial stocks were broadly lower, as shares in Citigroup retreated 0.97% and Goldman Sachs tumbled 1.36%, while JP Morgan plunged 2.92%. Bank of America overperformed on the other hand, rallying 2.56%. 

Bloomberg reported earlier that JPMorgan paid Achilles Macris USD31.8 million in the two years before the firm piled up at least USD6.2 billion of losses on a portfolio he oversaw, more than his boss Ina Drew and among the most at the bank. 

In addition, a Senate report outlined on Thursday JPMorgan's efforts to hide trading losses, which could ignite debate over whether the largest U.S. bank is too big to manage, adding pressure on CEO Jamie Dimon to surrender his role as chairman. 

Separately, media reports revealed that Morgan Stanley, up 0.39% at the U.S. open, could be sued by Singapore’s Hong Leong Finance in a New York court over claims it deceptively sold instruments designed to fail. 

Google added to losses, shedding 0.39%, after Samsung Electronics challenged the U.S. company on its home turf, as it premiered its latest flagship phone, the Galaxy S4, which sports a bigger display and unconventional features such as gesture controls. 

On the upside, Boeing gained 0.39% after the company expressed confidence that it could have its grounded 787 Dreamliner jets flying again in a matter of weeks. 

Boeing unveiled its proposed fix for the aircraft's battery system that should eliminate the risk of fire. 

Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were lower. The EURO STOXX 50 retreated 0.79%, France’s CAC 40 tumbled 0.92%, Germany's DAX declined 0.38%, while Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.72%. 

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index shed 0.38%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 1.45%. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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GBPUSD Making a Three Wave Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis)

This is a follow up on the article: GBPUSD Could Recover Back Above 1.5000 GBPUSD is in a sharp uptrend in the past two days, which was expected from a technical point of view after five waves down in red wave 5) of (3) followed by a broken trend-line.

Well, the current rally has an impulsive structure which means that the leg is part of a larger recovery which will probably prove corrective as we are tracking a blue wave 

Anyhow, even if a recovery will be corrective, we still need three waves up, labeled as A-B-C zig-zag formation, because we know that corrections are always structured with a minimum three legs.

Therefore, be aware of more upside after wave B pull-back, while market is trading above 1.4830 low. If we are correct, then pair could retrace even up to 1.5300.

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Forex Trading Signals for 15th March 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)


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BUY on the market: GBP/USD

BUY : 
Entry Point : 1.50875
Take Profit:   1.51075
Stop Loss:    1.50500

 2nd,,

BUY on GBP/USD : 

Entry Point : 1.50440
Take Profit:   1.51000
Stop Loss:    1.5000

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We will BUY on the market: EUR/USD
BUY: 
Entry Point : 1.30189

Take Profit:   1.30500
Stop Loss:    1.29800

2nd  BUY on the market,,,

BUY: 
Entry Point : 1.29854

Take Profit:   1.30200
Stop Loss:   1.29500

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U.S. futures steady, focus on data; Dow Jones down 0.01%

U.S. stock futures pointed to a steady open on Friday, as markets eyed the release of U.S. data, after a recent string of positive economic reports fuelled hopes for a strong U.S. recovery. 

Ahead of the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.01% dip, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.04% loss, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.06% gain.

On Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 332,000, last week compared to expectations for an increase of 8,000 to 350,000.

The unexpectedly strong data, together with recent stronger-than-forecast data on nonfarm payrolls and retail sales fuelled optimism over the durability of the U.S. economic recovery. 

Tech stocks were expected to be active, after Samsung Electronics challenged rival U.S. company Apple on its home turf, as the South Korean technology giant premiered its latest flagship phone, the Galaxy S4, which sports a bigger display and unconventional features such as gesture controls. 

Apple shares were up 0.73% in pre-market trade. 

Separately, IBM and EMC were said to be among the parties in talks to buy privately held database web hosting company SoftLayer Technologies, in a deal that could fetch over USD2 billion. 

Aircraft manufacturer Boeing was also likely to be in focus, after the company expressed confidence that it could have its grounded 787 Dreamliner jets flying again in a matter of weeks. 

In addition, Boeing unveiled its proposed fix for the aircraft's battery system that should eliminate the risk of fire. 

In the financial sector, Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan paid Achilles Macris USD31.8 million in the two years before the firm piled up at least USD6.2 billion of losses on a portfolio he oversaw, more than his boss Ina Drew and among the most at the bank. 

In addition, a Senate report outlined on Thursday JPMorgan's efforts to hide trading losses, which could ignite debate over whether the largest U.S. bank is too big to manage, adding pressure on CEO Jamie Dimon to surrender his role as chairman. 

The news sent shares in the U.S. lender tumbling 1.49% in early trading.

Separately, media reports revealed that Morgan Stanley could be sued by Singapore’s Hong Leong Finance in a New York court over claims it deceptively sold instruments designed to fail. 

Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were lower. The EURO STOXX 50 dropped 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.60%, Germany's DAX eased 0.08%, while Britain's FTSE 100 declined 0.42%. 

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index shed 0.38%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index jumped 1.45%. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to produce official data on consumer inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, followed by reports data on industrial production, and manufacturing activity in New York state.

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