US jobless claims slide to 346K – in line with expectations

Weekly jobless claims dropped to 346K in the week of June 22 2013. They were expected to slide from 355K last week (revised from 355K) to 347K this time. Continuing claims were predicted to remain almost unchanged at around 2.95 million. The drop under 3 million was an important advance in the economic situation. They suffered a small rise to 2.965 million now.

EUR/USD was steady around 1.3030 and USD/JPY held on to high ground at 98.20.

Personal spending rose by 0.3%, exactly as expected, but the figure for the previous month was revised to the downside: from -0.2% to -0.3%. Core PCE Price Index rose by 0.1% as expected and personal income surprised by rising 0.5%, more than 0.2% expected and this figure also enjoyed an upwards revision of the previous figure: from flat to +0.1%.

All in all, this bulk of data doesn’t contain big surprises: most figures are in line with predictions. The general picture of a slow and steady / frustrating growth continues.

Currencies aren’t moving too much. Next in the US: pending home sales at 14:00 GMT.

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EUR/USD June 27 – Under Pressure After Dovish Remarks from Draghi

EUR/USD is under pressure in Thursday trading, as the pair trades in the low-1.30 range. The pair lost more ground on Wednesday, after ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank’s monetary policy will remain loose. In the US, Final GDP was a disappointment, falling well below the estimate. Looking at Thursday’s releases, German Unemployment Change posted a sharp drop. Italian 10-year bonds continue to rise, and posted an average yield of 4.55% in the Thursday auction. In the US, there are two major releases – Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, touching a low of 1.3017 and consolidating around 1.3030. The pair is unchanged in the European session.

Current range: 1.3000 – 1.3050.

Further levels in both directions: 

• Below: 1.30, 1.2940, 1.2890, 1.2840, 1.28, 1.2750 and 1.27.
• Above: 1.3050, 1.31, 1.3160, 1.32, 1.3255, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3434, 1.3480
• The important level of 1.30 is providing weak support. 1.2940 is stronger.
• 1.3050 is a weak resistance line. This is followed by 1.31.

Euro remains under pressure after Draghi comments – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00 German Import Prices. Exp. -0.1%. Actual -0.4%.
• 7:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. 7K. Actual -12K. See how to trade this event with EUR/USD.
• 8:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Exp. 2.9%. Actual 2.9%.
• 8:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Exp. -0.8%. Actual -1.1%.
• 8:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Actual 49.1 points.
• 9:14 Italian 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 4.55%.
• Day 1 – EU Economic Summit.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 347K.
• 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Exp. 0.1%.
• 12:30 US Personal Spending. Exp. 0.3%.
• 12:30 US Personal Income. Exp. 0.2%.
• 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. 1.1%.
• 14:00 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks.
• 14:30 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks.
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. 89B.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• ECB’s Accommodative Stance to Continue: ECB President Mario Draghi spoke on Tuesday in Paris to the French parliament. Draghi reiterated that the ECB’s monetary policy would remain accommodative for now. He said that he expects the Eurozone to recover in the second half of 2013, but that the recovery would be “gradual but fragile”. The markets have heard these comments from Draghi and other ECB policymakers before, but based on the economic data we are seeing from the Eurozone, there is skepticism if the economy in Europe will indeed improve in the near future.
• Strong US Numbers Boost Dollar: US releases impressed the markets on Tuesday, with all three key releases looking sharp. Core Durable Goods rose 0.7%, easily surpassing the estimate of 0.0%. CB Consumer Confidence shot up to a multi-year high, at 81.4 points. The estimate stood at 75.2 points. New Home Sales came in at 476 thousand, well above the estimate of 462 thousand. Manufacturing data, often a sore spot, also looked good as the Richmond Manufacturing Index jumped to 8 points. All in all, it was an excellent day for the US, and the dollar responded by posting gains against the struggling euro. The news was not as good on Wednesday, as US GDP for Q1 rose 1.8%, well short of the 2.4% estimate. However, the markets shrugged of this weak reading and the dollar remains strong against the euro.
• Fed Backtracking on QE?: After Federal Reserve Chair Bernard Bernanke said last week that the Fed was planning to scale down QE, the US dollar surged. However, global stock markets, including those in the US, fell sharply on the news, and the Fed assigned two Federal Reserve Presidents to manage damage control. Dallas’ Richard Fisher declared that “tapering” should not be confused with “tightening” and said that the Fed was not exiting from its accommodative policy action just yet. Minneapolis’ Naraya Kocherlakota reiterated that the Fed was continuing with an expansionary monetary policy event if QE was terminated, and said that the Fed had not turned more hawkish. One could be forgiven for dismissing these statements as little more than linguistic acrobatics, and it’s questionable if the markets will be reassured by these statements, which were clearly aimed at calming nervous investors.
• German data shows improvement: Germany has long been considered the locomotive of Europe, but the number one economy in the Europe has had its share of trouble, as underscored by some weak economic releases. The week did not start off well, as German Ifo Business Climate, a key indicator, came in slightly below the estimate. However, there was better news as German Consumer Climate hit a six-year high. On Thursday, German Unemployment Claims posted a sharp drop of -12 thousand, well below the estimate of 7 thousand. These solid releases will have to continue if the Eurozone is to get back on the road to recovery.
• Greek government faces crisis: Greece is once again facing political turmoil as the smallest party in the governing coalition, the Democratic Left Party, quit on Friday. The reason was the government’s decision to close the state broadcaster as part of its plan to eliminate 15,000 public sector jobs by 2014, as mandated by the bailout agreement. The loss of the Democratic Left leaves the coalition with a razor-thin majority of just three seats. The timing of this crisis is particularly bad, as Greece is due to receive another installment of bailout funds next month. The troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) are playing down the crisis, saying that the bailout will proceed on schedule. If this proves not to be the case, we could see the euro run into some turbulence.

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UK data disappoints – GBP/USD Loses 1.53

GDP in Q1 2013 was expected to remain unchanged in the third and final revision of GDP, and stand at 0.3% and that’s exactly what happened. However, the year-on-year figure was revised to the downside: from a rise of 0.6% to only 0.3% – half. And, the current account  deficit for Q1 was predicted to squeeze from 13.6 billion pounds (revised from 14 billion initially reported) to 10.9 billion but it actually printed 14.5 billion. The wider deficit weighs on the pound.

GBP/USD remained in low ground towards the publication, trading at around 1.5320. It is now falling below 1.53, to a new post-Bernanke low.

Update: it fell as low as 1.5263 so far.

Business investment was expected to remain unchanged at a drop of 0.4%. It also disappointed with a drop of 1.9%.

The pound remained relatively strong in recent months, riding on some positive figures and withstanding periods of a stronger dollar. However, this week seems different, with the loss of 1.54 and now with the loss of 1.53. Cable is now at the lowest since June 5th, when it was surging towards 1.57.

The next significant support line stands at the round number of 1.52.

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U.S stocks rise on data, Fed comments on stimulus; Dow gains 0.77%

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday in a rally fueled by a double shot of better-than-expected economic indicators and comments from a high-ranking Federal Reserve official suggesting monetary stimulus programs will stay in place for now. 

At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.77%, the S&P 500 index ended up 0.62%, while the Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.76%.

The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose by 6.7% in May, well above expectations for a 1% gain.

The data sent stocks rising amid hopes the U.S. economy continues recovering, especially since housing, the sector that threw the country into recession and dampened recovery for years, is showing signs of improvement.

Elsewhere in the U.S., jobless claims fell in line with expectations last week, government data revealed.

The Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 9,000 to 346,000, in line with expectations for a drop of 10,000 to 345,000.

A separate report showed that U.S. personal spending was up 0.3% in May, in line with expectations.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said earlier that the U.S. central bank will keep monetary stimulus programs in place if economic recovery falters.

Stimulus programs such as the Fed's USD85 billion asset-purchasing programs known as quantitative easing push up stocks to spur the economy.

Dudley's comments coupled with better-than-expected data boosted spirits on Wall Street on the notion that stocks enjoy the support of improving fundamentals as well as Federal Reserve stimulus programs.

Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average performers included Hewlett-Packard, up 3.21%, Boeing, up 2.40%, and UnitedHealth Group, up 2.04%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst performers included Johnson & Johnson, down 0.31%, Coca-Cola, down 0.12%, and DuPont, which was up 0.09%.

European indices, meanwhile, finished higher.

After the close of European trade, the EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.66%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.97%, while Germany's DAX 30 finished up 0.63%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 finished up 1.26%.

On Friday, the U.S. will release a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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Forex - Dollar inches down on Fed comments, data supports

The dollar moved lower against most major currencies on Thursday after a key Federal Reserve official said stimulus programs will stay in place if the economy does not continue to improve. 

Suring U.S. pending home sales supported the dollar, though many investors avoided it to wait for fresh steering currents.

Monetary stimulus tools such as the Fed's monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program weaken the dollar to spur recovery.

In U.S. trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was up 0.22% at 1.3040.

The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose by 6.7% in May, well above expectations for a 1% gain.

Pending home sales rose 12.5% on a year over year basis last month, also above expectations for an 8.3% increase.

Elsewhere in the U.S., jobless claims fell in line with expectations last week, government data revealed.

The Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 9,000 to 346,000, in line with expectations for a drop of 10,000 to 345,000.

A separate report showed that U.S. personal spending was up 0.3% in May, in line with expectations.

The numbers supported the dollar somewhat though the currency traded lower on a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department said it revised down first quarter growth to an annualized 1.8% from an initial estimate for 2.4% growth.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said earlier Thursday that the U.S. central bank will keep monetary stimulus programs in place if economic recovery falters.

Dudley's comments and weaker-than expected economic growth figures stoked expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep stimulus programs in place for the coming months, which pushed the dollar lower Thursday.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD trading down 0.34% at 1.5263.

The pound came under pressure after revised data showed that the U.K. economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, down from a preliminary estimate of 0.6% growth. The quarterly growth rate remained unrevised at 0.3%.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.59% at 98.29, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading up 0.15% at 0.9448.

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.08% at 1.0477, AUD/USD up 0.01% at 0.9279 and NZD/USD trading down 0.04% at 0.7788.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.07% at 83.15.

On Friday, the U.S. will release a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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Forex - GBP/USD falls on U.K. growth data, U.S. home sales weigh

The pound weakened against the dollar on Thursday after the U.K. trimmed its first-quarter gross domestic product growth rate.

Better-than-expected pending home sales in the U.S. rekindled expectations that monetary stimulus programs will fade out soon and allow the greenback to strengthen over the long term.

Monetary stimulus tools such as the Federal Reserve's monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program weaken the dollar to spur recovery, and talk of their dismantling can strengthen the U.S. currency.

In U.S. trading on Thursday, GBP/USD was trading at 1.5261, down 0.35%, up from a session low of 1.5201 and off from a high of 1.5347.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.5201, the earlier low, and resistance at 1.5478, Tuesday's high.

The pound came under pressure after revised data showed that the U.K. economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, down from a preliminary estimate of 0.6% growth. The quarterly growth rate remained unrevised at 0.3%.

The dollar, meanwhile, saw support against the pound after the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose by 6.7% in May from April, well above expectations for a 1% gain.

Elsewhere in the U.S., jobless claims fell in line with expectations last week, government data revealed.

The Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 9,000 to 346,000, in line with expectations for a drop of 10,000 to 345,000.

A separate report showed that U.S. personal spending was up 0.3% in May, in line with expectations.

The pound, meanwhile, was down against the euro and up against the yen, with EUR/GBP trading up 0.63% at 0.8548 and GBP/JPY up 0.28% at 150.12.

On Friday, the U.S. will release a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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Forex - USD/CHF edges up to 3-1/2 week highs

The U.S. dollar edged up to three-and-a-half week highs against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as speculation over a possible near-term end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program continued to support demand for the greenback. 

USD/CHF hit 0.9452 during European morning trade, the pair's highest since June 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9442, adding 0.12%. 

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9373, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.9494, the high of June 5. 

Demand for the dollar remained supported by expectations that the Fed will start to unwind its asset purchase program later this year, despite a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the three months to March, below an earlier estimate of 2.4% growth. Economists had expected the rate of growth to remain unchanged at 2.4%. 

The Swissie was lower against the euro with EUR/CHF rising 0.29%, to hit 1.2306. 

Sentiment on the single currency remained fragile after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Wednesday that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and a report on pending home sales.

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Forex Trading Signal for 27th June 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

For more easy access,,,,,,Download our mobile application on your mobile :   Click Fxsignals 

EUR/USD

 Down Trend :

 (1) SELL

E/P: 1.30234

T/P: 1.29900

S/L: 1.30600

 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

GBP/USD

Down Trend:

(1) SELL

E/P: 1.53462

T/P: 1.53000

S/L: 1.53900

 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

USD/JPY

Down Trend:

(1) SELL

E/P: 97.729

T/P: 97.400

S/L: 98.200

 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

USD/CHF

Up Trend:

(1) BUY

E/P: 0.94181

T/P: 0.94400

S/L: 0.93700

NOTE: The above posted Signals are delayed 2 - 4 hours after it has been  generated.
Daily forex signals are sent ontime to only our subcribers.

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Forex - NZD/USD higher after mixed New Zealand data

The New Zealand dollar was higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, after the release of mixed New Zealand economic reports, although expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon begin scaling back its stimulus progam still supported the greenback. 

NZD/USD hit 0.7837 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7842, climbing 0.66%. 

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7718, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.7890, the high of June 20. 

Official data earlier showed that New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed unexpectedly in May, falling to NZD71 million from a surplus of NZD174 million the previous month. 

Analysts had expected the trade surplus to widen to NZD400 million last month. 

A separate report showed that the ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand rose to 50.1 this month, from a reading of 41.8 in May. 

The dollar remained supported by expectations that the Fed will start to unwind its asset purchase program later this year, despite a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the three months to March, below an earlier estimate of 2.4% growth. Economists had expected the rate of growth to remain unchanged at 2.4%. 

The kiwi was higher against the euro with EUR/NZD retreating 0.51%, to hit 1.6618. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and a report on pending home sales.

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Asia stocks rally as Fed fears ease; Nikkei ends up 3%

Asian stock markets rallied on Thursday to rebound from recent losses, after a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin to unwind its asset purchase program later this year.

Market sentiment got a further boost amid improvement in China’s strained money markets.

During late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 1%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index ended 1.7% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed up 3%.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the three months to March, below an earlier estimate of 2.4% growth. Economists had expected the rate of growth to remain unchanged at 2.4%.

The disappointing data eased fears the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei surged on hopes the Fed will maintain its bond purchases for longer.

USD/JPY rose to hit a session high of 98.10, compared to the previous day’s low of 97.22. A weaker yen increases the value of overseas income at Japanese companies when repatriated, boosting the outlook for export earnings.

Shares in automakers Toyota and Honda rallied 3.5% and 3.2% respectively, while Sony and Canon added 1.7% and 1.1% apiece.

Japanese megabanks were also higher, with shares in the nation’s largest lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group climbing 1.7%, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group tacked on 3% and 2.1% respectively.

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng moved further away from a nine-month low hit earlier in the week amid easing concerns over a credit crunch in the country’s banking sector.

The People’s Bank of China said earlier in the week that it will guide interest rates to a “reasonable range”.

Elsewhere, in Australia, the benchmark ASX/200 Index continued its bounce off a six-month low hit earlier in the week as global miners moved higher.

Fortescue Metals Group saw shares rise 2.3%, while gold miner Newcrest Mining surged 6.4%.

The big four banks were mostly higher, with National Australia Bank adding 1.8%, while ANZ Banking Group and Westpac Banking Group rose 2.4% and 2%. Commonwealth Banking Group tacked 2.8%.

Looking ahead, European stock market futures pointed to a flat open.

The EURO STOXX 50 futures pointed to a loss of 0.1% at the open, France’s CAC 40 futures were little changed, London’s FTSE 100 futures indicated a gain of 0.1%, while Germany's DAX futures pointed to a flat open.

The U.S. was to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and a report on pending home sales later Thursday, while Germany was to produce data on unemployment and import prices

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Forex - EUR/USD pushes higher, gains capped

The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Thursday, but gains were limited after the European Central Bank reiterated that an exit from exit from accommodative monetary policy remains distant.

EUR/USD hit 1.3088 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3030, rising 0.17%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2983, Wednesday’s low and a three-week low and resistance at 1.3086, Wednesday’s high.

The euro remained under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Wednesday that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its asset purchase program later this year, despite a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the three months to March, below an earlier estimate of 2.4% growth. Economists had expected the rate of growth to remain unchanged at 2.4%.

Elsewhere, the euro was fractionally higher against the pound, withEUR/GBP inching up 0.05% to 0.8498 and was stronger against the yen, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.47% to 127.76.

The U.S. was to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and a report on pending home sales later Thursday, while Germany was to produce data on unemployment and import prices.

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