Pages

Develop a habit of reviewing and analyzing

Develop a habit of reviewing and analyzing your good and bad trades. Then you will have a much better sense of what will work best in your future trades.

Trading is always full of emotions

Because trading is always full of emotions, you must have a trading strategy which includes a set of rules you stick to. This will help protect you from yourself.

software which aims at predicting future trends

While there are a lot of companies who make money by selling software which aims at predicting future trends, the reality is that if this software really worked, these companies would not be giving the secret away.

Trade wisely

There are many beginners who make trades in any direction. While there is a possibility to make profits both on the upside and downside of a trade, trading in the direction of the trend will give you the best chances for success

Invest in a good Forex trading education

The market is always changing and it may be hard to understand and keep up with these changes unless you invest in a good Forex trading education

Wednesday, 26 June 2013

Durable goods orders exceed expectations – dollar higher


US durable goods orders rose by 0.7%. They were expected to rise by 3% and core orders were predicted to remain flat and they rose by 3.6%.
USD/JPY rose to 97.70 before dropping. EUR/USD is sliding towards 1.31.
This publication is not the most important figure on the calendar but every figure counts regarding the timing of tapering, which is a clear fact now after the recent dramatic Fed decision.
More figures will be released later in the day, with housing figures leading: the S&P Case Shiller HPI and the new home sales numbers. Also note the consumer confidence figure, which is expected to fall from the highs.
Update: EUR/USD fell off the 1.31 line in an extension to the falls. The S&P Case Shiller index exceeded expectations and rose by 12.1% year on year, better than 10.6% expected. The month over month rise was 1.7%. However, the official House Price Index dropped by 0.7%.
Update 2: Consumer confidence and new home sales exceeded expectations, giving another boost to the greenback.

Fed officials unable to return the genie back into the bottle


While two non-voting Federal Reserve Presidents did their best to try and calm investor’s nerves, the jawboning from Dallas’s Richard Fisher and Minneapolis’ Narayana Kocherlakota was unable to keep the S&P out of double-digit losses yesterday.
Although considered an ‘uber-hawk’ when it comes to monetary policy for the United States, Fisher made sure to distinguish tapering from tightening, and reiterated that an exit from accommodative policy actions is not appropriate just yet.
Kocherlakota echoed support for the continuation of expansionary monetary policy even after the end of quantitative easing, also adding that there was a “mis-perception in markets that the Fed has turned more hawkish.”  The S&P was able to move off the lows of the day, but still ended well into negative territory to finish the session.
The sentiment from ‘Meltdown Monday’ carried over into the beginning of the Asian session, where China saw another rocky start to the trading day with the Shanghai Composite down over 5% at one point.  The bleeding was then cauterized and Chinese equities caught a bid on rumors that the country’s central bank was going to be holding press conference after markets closed, with many hoping the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) would address liquidity concerns.  Unfortunately, for those hoping for a  fresh stimulus injection from the PBoC, the central bank’s official stated that current liquidity was ample, and that the seasonal factors affecting liquidity conditions would gradually disappear.  The comforting factor for markets was the bank’s pledge to manage liquidity in the financial sector in a flexible manner, so despite the PBoC not announcing anything in the way of new monetary policy measures, the Shanghai Composite managed to finish just down 0.2%, a stunning comeback compared to the earlier price action.
The optimistic sentiment engulfing global markets has lifted equities in Europe, picking up steam on comments from outgoing Bank of England (BoE) governor Mervyn King to the Treasury Committee that there was no chance of interest rates returning to normal levels anytime soon, as the global economic environment has not yet returned to normal market conditions.  The Stoxx, FTSE, and Dax are all in the green as we head into the North American cross, and well the Pound and Euro had both been gaining against the big dollar as risk appetite returns to favour and some of the froth comes off the latest USD rally, the durable goods numbers have seen the USD fight its way back.  After making a run into the mid-1.55s, selling pressure after the US economic data sent GBPUSD lower, while EURUSD was also unable to best initial resistance in the mid-1.31s, before turning lower as well.
Turning our attention to North America, Durable Goods orders in the United States for the month of May were released.  Expectations were for the headline reading to come in with a 3.0% from the previous month, but after stripping out transportation items, the core reading was forecast to come in flat from April.  The actual reading showed big ticket items increased by 3.6% over the month of May, driven mainly by demand for commercial jets and military equipment, with the core print hitting 0.7%.  The proxy for future business investment, orders for non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft), came in with a 1.1% increase after a similar 1.2% increase in the prior month, signaling that business confidence could be stabilizing.  The better-than-expected economic data has helped US equity futures continue to gain after their overnight levitation, with their performance indicating that equities will be able to erase a good portion of yesterday’s losses when trading gets underway.
The Loonie was stronger against the USD during the overnight session, but as we creep up to opening bell in North America, USDCAD is reversing earlier losses to trade essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close.  The DXY (Dollar Index) is stronger on the positive economic data out of the US, spiking higher to trade above 82.50.  Hydrocarbons have also been gaining ground so far this morning, as WTI puts in work above $95.50/barrel.  Metals are also managing to find some willing buyers, as Gold works its way to just under $1,290/ounce.
We still have a few more important economic releases yet to come today, with CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales south of the 49th parallel both being released at 10:00am EST.  New home sales are expected to build on the gains seen in April, with economists forecasting an annualized reading of 462k new single-family homes being sold in May.  Consumer Confidence as surveyed by the Conference Board is not expected to reiterate the positive sentiment in new home sales, and while still forecast to come in strong at 75.6, that would be lower than the 76.2 recorded in May.
With last week’s reaction to the Fed telegraphing how the tapering process might take form, expectations of an exodus from QE could push the market back to a regime whereby good economic news is good for markets and bad economic data is subsequently bad for risk appetite.  This could help insulate the Canadian dollar from the sharp losses experienced by other high-beta, growth related currencies, as the buy “North America” sentiment lifts both the big dollar and Canuck buck; to some extent we’ve seen this play out already, as currencies like the Brazilian Real and Australian Dollar are both down 11% since the beginning of May, while the CAD is only down 4%.

US data shines again – dollar extends gains


New home sales rose to 476K. They were expected to continue advancing from the strong 466K (revised from 454K originally reported)  last month to 462K this time. The previous data and the new data are both great.
The CB Consumer confidence jumped to 81.4 points, better than expected. It was predicted to slide from 76.2 to 75.2 points. This is the highest number in over 5 years.
EUR/USD slipped below 1.3080. USD/JPY is already at 97.85, extending gains from previous positive US surprises.
Also the Richmond Manufacturing Index came out better than predicted, turning positive: from -2 to +8 points, better than 0 that was estimated.
Earlier, durable goods orders came out better than expected, rising by 3.6%. House prices are also on the rise according to Case Shiller.
So far, the data has been positive, but the gains for the US dollar have been limited. This isn’t a one way street. One of the reasons for the slowing down of USD gains is that Fed officials are trying to put the genie back in the bottle regarding tapering. Their success is limited, but it is still felt.

Forex - AUD/USD edges higher, but gains limited


The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, but gains were limited as Tuesday's upbeat U.S. economic reports continued to support demand for the greenback. 

AUD/USD hit 0.9277 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9268, easing up 0.08%. 

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9148, the low of June 24 and a more than two-year low and resistance at 0.9557, the high of June 19. 

U.S. consumer confidence rose to highest level since January 2008 in the current month, data on Tuesday showed, while another report showed that U.S. new home sales rose to an almost five year high May.

A separate report showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in May.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that the bank could begin tapering asset purchases by the end of this year if the economy continues to pick up.

Separately, fears over a credit squeeze in China eased after the country’s central bank indicated Tuesday that it was acting to support financial institutions with liquidity. 

The Aussie was higher against the euro with EUR/AUD slipping 0.21%, to hit 1.4094. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release revised data on first quarter economic growth.

Asia stocks mixed as China liquidity fears persist; Nikkei down 1%


Asian stock markets were mixed on Wednesday, with most shares in the region turning lower as concerns over tight liquidity conditions in China persisted despite reassurance from the country’s central bank.

During late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 1.3%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index ended 1.6% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index ended down 1%.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng moved further away from a nine-month low hit earlier in the week after the People’s Bank of China said on Tuesday that it will guide interest rates to a “reasonable range”.

The PBOC also said that interbank liquidity overall is abundant and risk is largely under control.

The central bank added that it will continue to closely monitor liquidity changes and will make an effort to stabilize market expectations.

Hong Kong-listed shares of China Minsheng Bank rallied 6%, China Merchants Bank rose 4.5%, while Industrial & Commercial Bank of China added 4.6%.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the benchmark ASX/200 Index bounced off the previous session’s six-month low as global miners rebounded after a series of upbeat U.S. data releases on Tuesday reinforced the view that the economic recovery is on track.

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton saw shares jump 3.3% and 2.6% respectively, while Fortescue Metals Group rose 2.4%.

The big four banks were mostly higher, with National Australia Bank adding 1.9%, while ANZ Banking Group and Westpac Banking Group rose 1.7% and 2%. Commonwealth Banking Group tacked 1.8%.

Elsewhere, in Tokyo, the Nikkei turned lower in volatile trade as investors continued to eye movements in the yen and in the Japanese government bond market.

Some exporters saw their gains evaporate in afternoon trade, with Mazda down 1.1%, while Sharp lost 3.5%.

Looking ahead, European stock market futures pointed to a flat open.

The EURO STOXX 50 futures pointed to a loss of 0.1% at the open, France’s CAC 40 futures were little changed, London’s FTSE 100 futures indicated a loss of 0.1%, while Germany's DAX futures pointed to a flat open.

Finance ministers from the European Union were to hold talks in Brussels on Wednesday, while the U.S. was to release revised data on first quarter economic growth.