Forex Daily Outlook June 4 2013

Trade Balance both in the US and Canada are the main events lined up.  Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Trade Balance, value the difference between imported and exported goods and services, -41.1B is due on the reported month from -38.8B on May.

Later in the US, Esther George, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President, is about to speak in Santa Fe.

Later on in the US, Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism, is likely to rise up to 50.2 points from 45.1 on May

In Canada, Trade Balance, value the difference in value between imported and exported goods, since Export demand and currency demand are linked, -0.4B is predicted now from 0.0B on May.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Producer Price Index (PPI), -0.2% is calculated now with no change from the last report.

For more on the Euro, read the Euro to dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Construction PMI, Survey to rate the quick react businesses conditions, such as employment, new orders, supplier deliveries and inventories, rise of  0.3 points is likely up to  49.7 points now.

Later in Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index (HPI), value the price change of homes that were financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), 0.2% is measured now from 1.1% on May.

Finally in Great Britain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index, 0.4% is due now.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), value all goods and services that were produced by the economy over the last quarter, 0.8% is likely now from 0.6% on the last time.

Later in Australia, Australian Industry Group (AIG) Services Index, 44.1 points are due to remain with no change from the last month.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Prices, is likely to remain 12.6% similar to the previous report

Read More

Asia stocks mixed; Nikkei rallies 2.9% as yen weakens

Asian stock markets were mixed during late Asian hours on Tuesday, with shares in Japan rallying sharply as traders continued to eye movements in the yen and in the Japanese government bond market. 

During late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 0.2%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index ended 0.2% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index surged 2.1% in volatile trade.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei rebounded from a loss of as much as 1% at the open as the yen retreated from a three-week high against the U.S. dollar.

USD/JPY hit a session high of 100.31, bouncing off the previous day’s three-week low of 98.85.

Japanese megabanks surged, with shares in the nation’s largest lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group jumping 7.5%, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuno Financial Group rallied 9% and 9.3% respectively.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the benchmark ASX/200 Index ended higher after the RBA held its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, broadly in line with market expectations.

In its accompanying rate statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said, “The inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand.”

The big four banks were mostly higher, with Australia's top lender, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia adding 0.5%, while National Australia Bank and ANZ Banking Group tacked on 1.3% and 0.4% apiece.

Elsewhere, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng swung between modest gains and losses amid ongoing uncertainty over China’s economic outlook, following the release of conflicting Chinese manufacturing data earlier in the week.

Looking ahead, European stock market futures pointed to a mildly higher open.

The EURO STOXX 50 futures pointed to a modest gain of 0.2% at the open, France’s CAC 40 futures added 0.3%, London’s FTSE 100 futures eased up 0.2%, while Germany's DAX futures pointed to a gain of 0.3% at the open.

Spain was to release official data on employment later in the trading day, while the U.S. was to produce a report on the trade balance.

Read More

Forex Trading Signal for 4th June 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

For more easy access,,,,,,Download our mobile application on your mobile :   Click Fxsignals 

EUR/USD

Down Trend :

 (1) BUY

E/P: 1.30500

T/P: 1.31000

S/L: 1.30100

 (2) SELL

E/P: 1.30587

T/P: 1.30200

S/L: 1.31000

GBP/USD

UP Trend:

(1) BUY

E/P: 1.52997

T/P: 1.53200

S/L: 1.52500

(2) SELL

E/P: 1.53129

T/P: 1.52900

S/L: 1.53500

NOTE: The above posted Signals are delayed 2 - 4 hours after it has been  generated.
Daily forex signals are sent ontime to only our subcribers.

To subcribe: click here

-->

Read More

ISM Manufacturing PMI Enters Contraction Zone: 49 Points – USD/JPY Loses 100

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49 points. This is a big disappointment. It was expected to remain almost unchanged after hitting 50.7 points last month, reflecting very slow growth. This is the first major hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The employment component is of special interest. The last time that the manufacturing PMI was under 50 was back in November 2012. The employment component hardly budged: 50.1 after 50.2 last month. This means static employment in the manufacturing sector.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY were pressured before the publication. USD/JPY crashed below 100 on the result. EUR/USD is on the rise following the publication, reconquering the 1.30 line.

• Also the Aussie reacts strongly to the news and rallies hard: over 150 pips so far today.
• Another update: Cable shows its able – GBP/USD extends gains
• EUR/USD highest in 4 weeks – Above 1.31. Spanish employment is important.

A big disappointment comes from the new orders component: it dropped 3.5 points from 52.2 to 48.8 points -a big shift from growth to contraction. Prices also dropped into contraction zone, falling to 49.5 points from 50 seen beforehand. This is another sign of looming deflation. Inventories rose by 2.5 points, but this isn’t a positive sign: more inventories now usually mean less growth later on.

It is important to remember that the manufacturing sector is only a small part of the economy: services is the vast majority of the US economy.

This disappointment reduces the chances of tapering QE, just after Williams provided a hint about tapering in the summer.

Earlier, Markit revised its manufacturing PMI for May to the upside: from 52 to 52.3 points. No change was expected. This joins upbeat figures for the UK, Spain, Italy, France and Germany. Chinese PMI dropped below 50 according to Markit.

Construction spending was expected to bounce back and rise by 1.1% after falling 1.7% last month, but it also disappointed with a rise of only 0.4%.

Read More

AUD/USD rallies hard – could this impact the RBA?

The Australian dollar is on a roll, extending gains after theweak US manufacturing PMI, and defying quite a few negative factors. The fall of US manufacturing into contraction zone according to ISM caused many to re-assess the chances for QE tapering. The news already triggered a fall of USD/JPY below 100.

It is already up 1.8% or over 150 pips and trading at 0.9750. This is a big one day move that stands out on the daily chart.

This big move comes on the eve of the RBA rate decision. The previous decision on May 7th resulted in a cut of the interest rate to 2.75%, a new post financial crisis low. This in turn, resulted in the Aussie crash of around 700 pips.

One of the reasons for the cut was the high value of the Aussie. This time, the consensus of economists is that the RBA will adopt a “wait and see” approach, especially as the A$ is weaker.

Could this surge change the minds of policymakers at the central bank? Probably not, but they could be wary of the recovery of the Aussie and send a warning message regarding its strength.

AUD/USD daily chart:

Read More

Cable shows its able – GBP/USD extends gains

The fall of the dollar after the terrible US manufacturing PMI continues in a determined fashion. The reduced chances of QE tapering push the dollar lower.

GBP/USD broke above the 1.53 level and already peaked at 1.5374 before making a limited retreat to 1.5354 at the time of writing.

In the case of the British pound, a parallel figure in the UK looks much better for a change: manufacturing PMI in the UK switched from contraction to growth, making the opposite route that the US did.

The series of PMI releases in the UK continues. Tomorrow its the turn of construction. See how to trade the construction PMI with GBP/USD.

The next event is services PMI – this is the most important sector. The rate decision on Thursday is widely expected to be a non-event, as it is the last meeting led by outgoing governor Mervyn King.

For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD forecast. Here is cable in motion:

Read More

EUR/USD climbs to the highest in 4 weeks on dollar sell-off – Keep an eye on Spanish employment

The fallout from the terrible manufacturing PMI in the US continues. The dollar continues falling across the board, and this also allows euro/dollar to climb to levels last seen on May 9th.

While the euro-zone enjoyed better than expected manufacturing PMIs of its own, the pair was lower before the publication. In order for these gains to hold, European figures need to improve. The focus is on Spain.

EUR/USD already fell to 1.2954 earlier in the day, asfresh tapering talk weighed heavily on the pair. However, the tapering bets have been reduced after the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US fell to contraction zone: 49 points.

In the euro-zone, manufacturing PMI surprised by rising to 48.3 points. While the US still has an advantage, the gap is now only 0.7 points instead of 2.9 points seen in April.

Nevertheless, the US is still growing, while the euro-zone has been in a recession for three quarters.

EUR/USD climbed as high as 1.3106 before sliding a bit lower, to 1.3095 at the time of writing. 1.31 resistance still holds. The next level is 1.3160, followed by 1.32. Support is at 1.3050, followed by 1.30. For more levels, events and analysis, see the euro to USD forecast.

The next important publication from Europe comes from Spain: the number of unemployed people. Usually this figure is very depressing, but has a limited impact on the euro.

This time is different, as Spanish PM Rajoy has released a thick hint and asked to “watch the employment numbers on Tuesday”. A change in Spain, which has an unemployment rate of 27.2%, could keep the euro up.

Here is a live chart of EUR/USD:

Read More

Forex - Dollar weakens as U.S. factory data disappoints

The dollar fell on Monday after a widely-watched factory gauge in the U.S. contracted for the first time in six months in May.

Softer-than-expected indicators in the U.S. tend to weaken the dollar by stoking expectations that the Federal Reserve won't rush to scale back monetary stimulus programs.

Stimulus measures such as the Fed's monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program weaken the greenback to spur recovery.

In U.S. trading on Monday, EUR/USD was up 0.60% at 1.3074.

The Institute for Supply Management said earlier its U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.0 in May from 50.7 in April. 

Analysts were expecting an unchanged reading.

On the index, a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said monetary authorities will pay close attention to economic data when deciding plans for monetary stimulus measures.

Meanwhile in Europe, better-than-expected PMI data strengthened the euro and sent the dollar falling.

The eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved to 48.3 from 47.8 in April indicating that the slump in the manufacturing sector is easing, according to London-based Markit Economics.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.4 in May, beating market calls for a 49.0 reading.

The greenback, meanwhile, was down against the pound, with GBP/USDtrading up 0.80% at 1.5317.

The dollar was down against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.93% at 99.49, and down against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading down 0.91% at 0.9471.

The dollar was down against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD down 0.88% at 1.0277, AUD/USD up 1.90% at 0.9758 and NZD/USD trading up 1.73% at 0.8084.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.74% at 82.70.

On Tuesday, the U.S. will unveil data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Read More

Forex - Dollar slips lower vs. yen

The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday, following falls in Japanese equities after weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data.

USD/JPY hit 100.23 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.00.33, dipping 0.07%.

The pair was likely to find support at 100.00, and resistance at 101.27, Friday’s high.

Earlier Monday, data showed that China’s HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slid down to 49.2 in May, the lowest level since October 2012, from 49.6 in April. Japan’s Nikkei closed down 3.7% following the report.

The report came one day after official data showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index to rose to 50.8 in May from 50.6 in April.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program later this year. 

Elsewhere, the yen was lower against the euro, with EUR/JPY rising 0.21% to 130.77.

The Institute of Supply Management was to release data on manufacturing activity in the U.S. later Monday.

Read More