5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs – Q4 2013

A predictable currency pair will make a convincing follow through after breaking a clear technical barrier, or hesitate and bounce off. A less predictable currency pair will trade choppily and frustrate the technical trader. Some currency pairs are consistent with their behavior, while others change over time.

Evens in markets, periods of the year and many other factors impact the various pairs. Here is an updated and ranked list of the 5 most predictable pairs for the last quarter of 2013, each with its special style.

Update: Here is the recent list for Q2 2014

1. EUR/GBP: Upon a breakout, the cross tends to run to a specific point and immediately mark the new trading range. Apart from range trading, it recently traded in a nice downtrend channel. The current trends in the euro-zone and in the UK are likely to continue and support the channel, making this cross attractive also in Q4. It’s worth looking also at round numbers on the opposite cross: GBP/EUR.
2. NZD/USD: The kiwi usually appears on the list, and this time it got upgraded. The higher volatility adds quite a few pips to the relatively predictable moves. The attempts of the central bank to verbally intervene are being ignored more than beforehand, and this makes trading somewhat more natural. Breakouts tend to be clear and strong.
3. EUR/USD: The world’s most popular pair had a nice technical behavior in Q3, creating both a double bottom and making a nice clear breakout above uptrend resistance. It certainly lived up to its No. 1 ranking in Q3, but things are likely to change in Q4 with more “moving parts” and uncertainty (especially around Germany)  than beforehand, that could create choppier trading. Nevertheless, this pair is still better than many others, with support and resistance lines working quite well. The pair remains better in range trading than in breakouts.
4. USD/CAD: This usually sleepy pair demonstrated nice downwards moves in Q3, making a nice break below uptrend support. It’s directional trade is not bad, but range trading needs improvement. It tends to respect old support and resistance lines and not necessarily more recent ones.
5. AUD/USD: The Aussie topped the list in the past but now only closes the list. It still trades in good trends, but tends to make a few more false breaks than beforehand. In Q4, it is likely to continue looking for a direction. Looking at the past, it has better chances to become more predictable during Q1.

Do you trade any of these pairs? Do you prefer others? What are the most predictable currency pairs in your opinion?

Who didn’t make it? The Swiss franc is still limited in movement due to the floor the SNB imposed under EUR/CHF. USD/JPY had a nice period of time, but it is now directionless and choppy. Two contradicting channels can be drawn on the charts.

GBP/USD had a good run, but it still remains “the currency of the devil” with too many nasty moves. Recently, the pound tends to work better with other currencies such as the euro, Aussie, kiwi and also the yen, but doesn’t behave well with the greenback.

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5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs – Q2 2014

A good currency pair will lose speed when approaching a clear line of resistance and support and then bounce back into range. If it has a strong momentum, this currency pair will pierce through the clear line and only leave dust behind them. We all like these pairs – the more predictable ones. Unfortunately, not all of them behave that way.

As central banks diverge in policy and currencies move, so does their behavior. Here is an updated and ranked list for for the most predictable currencies in Q2 2014, with details about each pair’s characteristics.

1. AUD/USD: After a big downfall in 2013 and a confusing time, the Aussie is back in shape and this is set to continue. The pair provides strong moves in both directions, with clear trends that are easy to see with textbook higher highs and higher lows. While the current direction of the pair could change, the behavior could remain clear, with lower lows and lower highs. In addition, the pair trades in clear channels.
2. EUR/USD: The world’s most popular currency pair is now in a good period: gradual rises are followed by sharper moves down, ranges are more respected and so are support and resistance lines. While trend lines are likely to remain problematic, euro/dollar does have a feature that pushes it up the list: the 1.40 line. This politically watched figure seems to be a line in the sand for the ECB, as we have seen several times and watching this line for a bounce or a break helps in assessing the trade for the pair.
3. NZD/USD: The rise of the kiwi is not a one way street, but this street is full with signs. The pair tends to rise to a new high, mark the top and then trade in range. The falls follow a similar pattern, with a mark at the bottom, which then turns into a double bottom. The range of pips is limited, but quite clear.
4. USD/JPY: Placing this major pair in the most predictable list is not the obvious thing, as dollar/yen had long periods of choppy, ugly behavior. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy between the loosening BOJ and the tightening Fed certainly provides more volatility and this comes with more predictability. When the pair is not trending, it trades in well defined trading ranges. While this isn’t everybody’s cup of tea, the clear behavior is certainly an opportunity for range traders.
5. USD/CAD: Volatility has risen in Q1 and predictability hasn’t really improved – it has trended in a choppy, unpredictable manner. However, there is a good chance that with a growing monetary policy divergence, we could get better range trading in this pair.

One major pair that is out of the list is GBP/USD: after a period of trending upwards, cable entered a nice consolidation phase, but lost its direction since then. As economic indicators point in different directions, this choppy period will probably last throughout the second quarter.

In addition, no cross made it to the list this time: major and minors were just better than EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and others.

Further reading: 50 Top Forex Twitter Accounts

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Gold edges higher but remains near 7-week low ahead of U.S. data

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, but held near a seven-week low as investors looked ahead to key U.S. data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.

Gold inches higher but holds near 7-week low ahead of U.S. ADP jobs report

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfor June delivery held in a tight range between $1,278.80 a troy ounce and $1,284.90 an ounce.

Gold last traded at $1,284.70 an ounce during European morning hours, up 0.37%, or $4.70. Prices fell to $1,277.40 an ounce on Tuesday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $1,280.00, down 0.3%, or $3.80.

Gold futures were likely to find support at $1,273.70 a troy ounce, the low from February 11 and resistance at $1,299.30, the high from March 31.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation in March later in the session. The report comes ahead of Friday's monthly government jobs report that is expected to show a gain of 197,000 new jobs in March.

The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders later Wednesday.

Comex gold prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as upbeat U.S. economic data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that there is still room for the central bank to help the economy and reiterated that the Fed’s commitment to economic stimulus will still be needed for some time.

Meanwhile, silver for May delivery jumped 0.91%, or 18.0 cents, to trade at $19.87 a troy ounce. Silver ended Tuesday’s session down 0.32%, or 6.4 cents, to settle at $19.68 an ounce.

Elsewhere on the Comex, copper for May delivery eased up 0.43%, or 1.3 cents, to trade at a three-week high of $3.053 a pound following an earthquake in Chile.

Chile is the world’s biggest producer of the red metal, providing almost a third of the world's supply.

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Spanish jobless claims fall by 16,600 in March

The number of unemployed people in Spain declined more than expected in March, easing concerns over the health of the euro zone’s fourth largest economy, official data showed on Wednesday.

Spanish jobless claims fall more than expected in March

In a report, Spain’s Employment Ministry said the number of unemployed people fell by a seasonally adjusted 16,600 last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 5,300. The number of unemployed people fell by 1,900 in February.

Following the release of the data, the euro held on to gains against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD inching up 0.11% to trade at 1.3808.

Meanwhile, European stock markets were higher after the open. Spain’sIBEX 35 climbed 0.25%, the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.3%, France’sCAC 40 rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX picked up 0.3%, while London’sFTSE 100 added 0.15%.

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Forex Trading Signal for 2nd April 2014

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

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Forex Signal for 2^nd  April  2014,,,,

EUR/USD

 Up Trend : 

 (1) BUY

Entry Point: 1.37920 

Take Profit: 1.38400

Stop Loss:   1.37600

 

GBP/USD

Down Trend:

(1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.66400 

Take Profit: 1.66000

Stop Loss:   1.66700

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Daily forex signals are sent ontime to only our subcribers.

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