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Monday, 8 July 2013
Forex - Dollar broadly higher as traders eye Fed minutes
In Asian trading Monday, EUR/USD fell 0.15% to 1.2852 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in comments before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee that euro area economic activity should recover over the course of this year.
Weakness in the euro could be a sign that traders are expecting some form of monetary easing from the ECB later this year. With Draghi pledging to keep interest rates low and expectations in place that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its USD85 billion-per-month stimulus program, upside for the euro against the greenback could be limited in the near-term.
USD/JPY inched up 0.04% to 101.04 after the Bank of Japan said that Japan’s M2 money supply rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.8% in June following a 3.5% increase in May. May’s figure was revised up from a 3.4% increase. Analysts expected a June increase of 3.4%.
GBP/USD dropped 0.18% to 1.4927 after rebounding from near four-month lows on Monday. In a report, Capital Economics said the U.K. economy could be in store for a period of "catch up" growth. In another report, BDO said U.K. business confidence and output both jumped to 13-month highs in June.
Later Tuesday, the U.K. delivers May industrial output data with analysts expecting an increase of 0.2% following a 0.1% rise in April.
USD/CHF rose 0.16% to 0.9653 while USD/CAD added 0.09% to 1.0571 as oil prices drifted lower. Investors kept an eye out towards the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting on Wednesday, hoping to gain further insight on the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
The Australian dollar remains under siege against the greenback asAUD/USD fell 0.25% to 0.9112. NZD/USD dropped 0.20% to 0.7786 while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.13% to 84.55.
Forex - USD/JPY rises, but more downside seen for yen
In Asian trading Tuesday, USD/JPY rose 0.21% to 101.21 after earlier trading as high as 101.12. The pair was likely to find resistance at 101.54, the earlier high, and support at 99.26, Wednesday's low.
Earlier Tuesday, the Bank of Japan said that Japan’s M2 money supply rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.8% in June following a 3.5% increase in May. May’s figure was revised up from a 3.4% increase. Analysts expected a June increase of 3.4%.
The yen remains the world’s worst-performing developed market currency this year even after a bout of strength in late May and some traders see rising U.S. interest rates as a possible catalyst to further depress the yen.
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys have risen nearly 80 basis points since the start of the year, but the Bank of Japan’s bond-buying efforts have kept Japanese government bond yields flat. The yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-years is about 180 basis points compared to an average of 110 basis points over the past year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Past periods of rising interest rates have enticed Japanese investors to buy dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. bonds or stocks, a scenario that leads to yen weakness.
That scenario could repeat because on Monday Goldman Sachs said yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys could hit 4% by 2016.
Elsewhere, EUR/JPY rose 0.10% to 130.11 while AUD/JPY fell 0.17% to 92.09.
Forex Trading Signal for 9th July 2013
Japan (Tokyo) United Kingdon (London) USA (New York)
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EUR/USD
UP Trend :
(1) BUY
E/P: 1.28580
T/P: 1.28900
S/L: 1.28100
GBP/USD
UP Trend:
(1) BUY
E/P: 1.49287
T/P: 1.49600
S/L: 1.48800
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Crude oil futures little changed near 14-month high
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in August traded at USD103.29 a barrel during European morning trade, up 0.1% on the day.
New York-traded oil prices held in a range between USD102.98 a barrel, the daily low and a session high of USD103.98, the strongest level since May 3, 2012.
Violent clashes between supporters and opponents of ousted President Mohamed Morsi left more than 30 people dead over the weekend, according to various reports.
Market players were concerned that the escalating violence would lead to the closure of the Suez Canal, which transports approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil a day from northern Africa to the U.S.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration identified the Suez Canal as one of seven “world oil transit chokepoints” and an “important transit corridor for world oil markets” in its 2012 Energy Outlook report.
Oil prices also drew support amid indications of an improving U.S. economic outlook.
The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists.
May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.
Oil traders have been paying close attention to readings on U.S. employment levels because they offer insight into the economic health of the world's largest crude oil consumer.
An improving economy is generally correlated with increased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for August delivery shed 0.15% to trade at USD107.56 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD4.27 a barrel.
The London-traded Brent contract rose to a session high of USD108.03 a barrel earlier in the day, the strongest level since April 3.
The gap between the contracts narrowed to the smallest level since December 2010 last week, amid an improving production outlook in the North Sea and indications of declining stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil futures.
European stocks sharply higher, eyes on E.Z. talks; Dax rallies 1.57%
During European morning trade, the EURO STOXX 50 surged 1.58%, France’s CAC 40 jumped 1.53%, while Germany’s DAX 30 rallied 1.57%.
Stocks remained supported after ECB President Draghi said last week that the bank expects to maintain interest rates at current or lower levels for an “extended” period of time.
Also in the euro zone, official data on Monday showed that Germany posted a smaller-than-expected trade surplus of EUR14.1 billion in May, as exports decreased by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis and imports fell by 2.6%. Analysts had expected a trade deficit of EUR17.5 billion.
Financial stocks were broadly higher, as French lenders BNP Paribas and Societe Generale climbed 0.43% and 0.91%, although Germany's Deutsche Bank dipped 0.04%.
Peripheral lenders added to gains, with Spanish banks BBVA and Banco Santander advancing 0.61% and 0.80% respectively, while Italy's Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo rose 0.66% and 0.71%.
Elsewhere, Novartis jumped 1.26% after saying a psoriasis treatment met all its primary and secondary endpoints in a phase-three study.
In London, FTSE 100 rallied -%, as U.K. lenders tracked their European counterparts higher.
Shares in the Royal Bank of Scotland climbed 0.40% and HSBC Holdings advanced 0.60%, while Lloyds Banking and Barclays surged 1.99% and 2.49%.
Bloomberg reported earlier that former Standard Chartered Chairman Mervyn Davies is working to assemble an investor group to bid for part of the U.K. government’s stake in Lloyds Banking.
Meanwhile, mining stocks were also broadly higher, as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton rose 0.08% and 1.53% respectively, while Anglo American jumped 1.19%.
In the U.S., equity markets pointed to a higher open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.29% rise, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.35% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.50% climb.
Later in the day, Germany was to produce official data on industrial production, while the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels.
In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi was to testify before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament in Brussels.
Gold edges higher, but gains capped by Fed stimulus outlook
Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would end its bond-buying program sooner-than-expected.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery traded at USD1,218.75 a troy ounce during European morning hours, up 0.5% on the day.
Comex gold prices held in a range between USD1,214.55 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of USD1,228.65 a troy ounce.
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,180.35 a troy ounce, the low from June 28 and a 34-month low and resistance at USD1,249.75, Friday’s session high.
Gold prices tumbled more than 2% on Friday after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists.
May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.
Gold prices are on track to post a loss of 27% on the year, the worst yearly decline since 1981, amid speculation the Fed will start to unwind its stimulus program by the year's end.
An exit from the stimulus would deal a heavy blow to gold, which has thrived on demand from investors who buy gold to hedge against the inflationary risks of loose monetary policies.
Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, for further hints regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery eased up 0.1% to trade at USD18.75 a troy ounce, while copper for September delivery added 0.2% to trade at USD3.072 a pound.
Asia stocks decline; Nikkei ends down 1.4% on stronger yen
During late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.9%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index ended 0.7% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed down 1.4%.
The Department of Labor said Friday the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists.
May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei reversed earlier gains to close lower as the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen, weighing on exporters.
USD/JPY fell to hit a session low of 100.92, moving off the previous session’s five-week high of 101.52. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas income at Japanese companies when repatriated, dampening the outlook for export earnings.
Toyota and Honda saw shares fall 1% and 2.1% respectively, while Sony and Sharp retreated 2% and 1.9% apiece.
Japanese megabanks were also lower, with shares in the nation’s largest lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group falling 1.3%, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group lost 1.9% and 1.4% respectively.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the benchmark ASX/200 Index ended lower as miners declined amid falling metal prices.
Newcrest Mining saw shares plunge 7.8%, Fortescue Metals Group fell 1.8%, while BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dropped 2.1% and 2%.
Elsewhere, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng tumbled, tracking heavy losses in mainland China markets.
The China banking sector were among the biggest losers on the index, with China Construction Bank shares falling 2.5%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China slumping 2.7% and China Minsheng Bank declining 1%.
Looking ahead, European stock market futures pointed to a lower open.
The EURO STOXX 50 futures pointed to a loss of 0.1% at the open, France’s CAC 40 futures dipped 0.1%, London’s FTSE 100 futures eased down 0.1%, while Germany's DAX futures pointed to a decline of 0.1% at the open.
Later in the day, Germany was to produce official data on industrial production, while the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels.
In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi was to testify before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament in Brussels.
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