Thailand's army chief declares martial law, says not a coup

Thailand's armed forces declared martial law Tuesday, surprising markets and political players, but said they weren't staging a coup.

The nation is bitterly divided between supporters of the populist government and its conservative opponents, who have been massing on the streets for more than half a year in a bid to topple the administration.Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha issued a pair of statements and later appeared on television to say that martial law was necessary nationwide to address the worsening security situation.

"The army aims to keep peace and maintain the safety and security of the people of all sides," the army television channel said. "Please do not be alarmed, and carry on with business as usual. This isn't a coup."

More than 24 people have been killed in political violence since the current wave of protests began in November in a crisis that peaked earlier this month when the Constitutional Court removed Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister.

Acting Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan, couldn't be reached for comment. Since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, the army has executed 18 coups.

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Asian shares mostly higher, but Thai martial law weighs on SET

Asian shares showed some bounce on Tuesday, but Thailand's stock market fell and its currency weakened after the nation's armed forces declared martial law.

The SET remains one of Asia's best performers so far this year--up 7%. But martial may see foreign investors diverting money to Indonesia and India where the political situation is more stable.The SET 100 benchmark index dropped 1.6% in early trading after the Thai army chief said the military would impose martial law to address a worsening security situation. The country is bitterly divided between supporters of the populist government and their conservative rivals.

Elsewhere in Asia, most markets moved higher. Japan's Nikkei 225added 0.86% after having lost nearly 3% over the past four sessions.

Yahoo Japan Corp. (TOKYO:4689) was a major mover in Tokyo, surging 10% after the search portal announced it was scrapping plans to buy the mobile operations of eAccess and Willcom from Softbank Corp. (TOKYO:9984).

Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.72% and the Shanghai Compositeindex added 0.16%.

Overnight, U.S. stocks ended a lackluster session higher, mainly has bargain hunters continued to snap up nicely-priced technology stocks in a trading day void of major market-moving news.

The Dow 30 rose 0.12%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.38%, while the NASDAQ Composite Composite index rose 0.86%.

Bottom fishers snapped up technology and small-cap equities on Monday, the beneficiaries of exceptionally loose monetary policies since the 2008 downtown.

The Federal Reserve is expected to wind up its monthly bond-buying program later this year.

Markets kept an eye out towards Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its April policy meeting, with many investors opting to wait on the sidelines until they see a new weather vane that will indicate the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Charles Plosser and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley are to speak.

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Forex Signal for 20th May 2014

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

For more easy access,,,,,,Download our mobile application on your mobile :   Click Fxsignals 

EUR/USD

 Down Trend : 

 (1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.37110 

Take Profit: 1.36800

Stop Loss:   1.37500

 

GBP/USD

Down Trend:

(1) Sell

Entry Point: 1.68210 

Take Profit: 1.67800

Stop Loss:   1.68600

NOTE: The above posted Signals are delayed 2 - 4 hours after it has been  generated.
Daily forex signals are sent ontime to only our subcribers.

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GBP/USD Outlook May 19-23

GBP/USD had an uneventful week, posted slight losses. The pair closed the week just above the 1.68 line. The upcoming week is busy, highlighted by CPI and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British Claimant Count Change continues to improve, but fell short of the estimate. The BOE Inflation Report also weighed on the pound, as the central bank said that it had no plans to raise interest rates before 2015. In the US, Unemployment Claims plunged to a seven year low, while housing and manufacturing data was sharp. However, consumer confidence fell short of expectations.

Updates:

• May 19, 11:38: The yen picks up: The yen has been quietly appreciating over the past week and overnight has touched key levels on USDJPY and elsewhere....

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation, and is one of the most important economic indicators. The index continues to lose ground and dropped to 1.6% in March. The estimate for the upcoming release stands at 1.7%.
2. PPI Input: Tuesday, 8:30. PPI Input has hit a brick wall, producing only one gain since last August. The index came in at -0.6%, well of the estimate of -0.1%. The markets are expecting a brighter April, with the estimate standing at 0.0%.
3. RPI: Tuesday, 8:30. RPI includes housing starts, which is excluded from CPI. The index dipped to 2.5% in March, matching the forecast. The forecast for the upcoming release is 2.6%.
4. BOE Deputy Governor Charles Bean Speaks: Tuesday, 17:30. Bean will speak at an event in London. Analysts will be looking for any hints as to future monetary moves from the BOE.
5. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. Analysts closely monitor the voting breakdown of the MPC vote on QE, which is expected to be a unanimous 9-0 decision. A non-unanimous vote indicates some dissension by policymakers as to the desirable QE level.
6. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 8:30. This decision is also expected to be a unanimous decision. A split vote would likely feed speculation about a rate hike by the BOE, which could result in the pound moving higher.
7. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 8:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can affect the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator posted a paltry gain of just 0.1% last month, but that was good enough to beat the estimate of -0.4%. The markets are expecting some improvement in April, with an estimate of 0.4%.
8. Second Estimate GDP: Thursday, 8:30. Strong GDP releases continue to point to an improving UK economy. The indicator posted a 0.7% gain in Q1, matching the estimate. Little change is anticipated in Q2, with the estimate standing at 0.8%.
9. Preliminary Business Investment: Thursday, 8:30. This indicator, released each quarter, posted a strong gain of 2.6% in Q4 of 2013, its best reading since Q3 of 2012. However, this was short of the estimate of 2.6%. More of the same is expected for Q1, with the estimate standing at 2.3%.
10. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Thursday, 8:30. This release has posted two consecutive deficits, although the reading of GBP 4.9 billion last month, was much lower than the estimate of 8.9 billion. The markets are expecting the deficit to continue to shrink, with an estimate of GBP 3.6 billion.
11. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. This indicator is based on a survey of manufacturers and helps analysts track the health and direction of the manufacturing sector. The March reaching dropped sharply to -1 point, way off the estimate of 7 points. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 4 points.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6859. The pair touched a high of 1.6903, and then dropped to a low of 1.6731, as support remained firm at 1.6703 (discussed last week). GBP/USD then recovered late in the week, closing at 1.6803.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.7375. This line marked the start of a sharp pound rally in March 2006, which saw the GBP/USD push above 2.11.

Next is 1.7180, which has served in a resistance since October 2008. This is followed by 1.6990, which is protecting the key psychological level of 1.70.

1.6823 continues to be busy. The line was easily breached as the pair lost ground, and is currently a weak resistance line. It could see action early in the week.

1.6705 continues to provide support. GBP/USD approached this line last week before recovering. It could face pressure again this week if the pound loses ground.

The round number of 1.6600 follows. It has remained intact since early April, when the pound started its current rally. 1.6475 is the next support level.

1.6343 saw some activity in early February but has provided strong support since that time.

The final support line for now is 1.6247.

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EUR/USD Forecast May 19-23

EUR/USD had a second consecutive week of falls, but it managed to close above the lows and above uptrend support. Where is it headed next? Another busy week awaits the pair, with PMIs and the German IFO figure standing out. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The euro received no mercy from the ECB after Draghi’s statement about imminent action in June. More reports and comments from the Bank pushed the currency lower. In addition, the weak growth rate of 0.2% in Q2 certainly weighed on the common currency. German growth is not sufficient, and looking at the ZEW index, it is not necessarily that strong either. In the US, data remains generally positive, but far from outstanding. Let’s start:

Updates:

• May 19, 14:51: Chinese Deceleration Triggers Reversal: The sound of China cracking can be heard across the global financial system this morning. Numbers published over the weekend...
• May 19, 11:38: The yen picks up: The yen has been quietly appreciating over the past week and overnight has touched key levels on USDJPY and elsewhere....

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German Buba Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00. The German central bank forecasted a slowdown in growth during the second quarter after a pickup in the first three months of 2014. Growth in industrial orders has subsided  from the rise in the first two months and the cold weather conditions which partially affected the first quarter are expected also to squeeze the rate of growth in the second quarter. The Bundesbank forecasted a 1.7% annual growth in 2014 and 2.0% expansion in 2015.
2. German PPI: Tuesday, 6:00. Producer prices in Germany plunged 0.3% in March, contrary to analysts’ forecast of a 0.1% rise. Factory process fell 0.9% on the year. Lower energy prices were the main reason for the drop in prices. Excluding energy prices, the producer price index remained on the month and down only 0.3% on the year. This tame inflation is expected to remain in the coming months with a slight rise only later this year. Producer prices are expected to remain unchanged.
3. Current Account: Wednesday, 8:00 Current Account dropped to €21.9bn in February, following €25.3bn in January. The Italian Global Trade Balance for February was €2.62, sharply below January’s reading of €3.65bn. ECB president, Mario Draghi, argued that the Eurozone is not making sufficient progress in it’s ongoing battle against disinflation. Draghi may be forced to act if inflation remains subdued in fear of a deflation trend. Current Account is expected to improve to €24.2bn this time.
4. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to -8.7 in April, after posting -9.3 in the previous month. Improvement in the EU unemployment rate has contributed to this rise. Following these positive signs, retail sales as well as car sales have expanded. The ECB forecasted a 1.2% growth rate for the Eurozone in 2014 rising to 1.8% in 2016. Consumer sentiment  is predicted to rise further to -8.
5. Manufacturing and Services PMIs: Thursday. French manufacturing sector lost momentum in April, dropping to 50.9 from 52.1 in the previous month. Analysts’ expected the sector to reach 51.9. Meanwhile, the services also declined to 50.3 from 51.5 registered in March, while economists expected the reading to remain unchanged at 51.9. Germany’s manufacturing sector advanced for the first time this year in April reaching 54.2, beating estimates for a 53.7 reading. Meanwhile, the services sector also improved to 55.0 from 53.0 in March. Analysts expected a milder rise to 53.5.Both indicators remained above the 50 point line for the tenth and eleventh month in a row, respectively. Markit’s flash Eurozone Services PMI climbed to a 34-month high in April, reaching 53. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3, marking a 3-month high indicating a strong opening for the second quarter. French Manufacturing is expected to reach 51.1, while Services are predicted to drop to 50.3. German Manufacturing is predicted to decline to 54.0 while services are expected to improve to 54.8. The Eurozone Manufacturing is expected to drop to  53.2, while services are expected to decline to 53.0.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. German business confidence edged up unexpectedly in April, reaching 111.2 from 110.7 on March. German manufacturing and services activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2011 sustaining Germany’s position as the leading force in the Eurozone economy. The outlook for the economy remains mostly positive, but there are also risks such as trade uncertainty with Russia following the Ukraine crisis and slower activity in emerging markets. German business confidence is expected to reach 111.0.
7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. Belgian business confidence declined unexpectedly in April, dropping to -4.6 from -4.4 in March. Economists anticipated a rise to -2.3. Declines were registered across the board except for a modest rise in the manufacturing industry. Business confidence is likely to decline further to -4.7.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar began the week with some range trading above the 1.3740 line mentioned last week. It then fell sharply, and could never retake this line. Support was found at 1.3650, which is now stronger.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin from lower ground this time. The all important round number of 1.40 is now even stronger after the pair was clearly rejected there in early May. Below, the 2014 high of 1.3964 will be closely watched.

The April peak of 1.3905 serves as minor resistance. It is followed by 1.3865 which capped the pair during the same time as well.

1.3830, which was a long serving 2013 peak comes back into the focus after capping the pair in March 2014 and serving as a clear separator several times. 1.3785 worked as support for the pair during April and served as resistance beforehand.

1.3740, which provided some support at the end of 2013 is now key support to the downside. The round number of 1.37, is another support line after capping the pair in December.

1.3650 provided support in December and worked as resistance in September 2013, and is also a significant line, especially after the bounce in May. Also the February rally fell short of this line. Below, 1.3560 worked as good support twice during February 2014.

The January 2014 low of 1.3515 provides minor support on the way down. 1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. It is now a key line on the downside.

Trending lines

Uptrend support accompanies the pair since late February and remains intact. Downtrend resistance was broken, but the pair fell back to range. The uptrend support line remains the more important line. After a dip, the pair managed to retake the line, but it remains close.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The ECB wants a lower value of the euro and it is still unsatisfied. More pressure from the Draghi and co. is likely and also action seems more and more real and not a bluff. In addition, there are good reasons to act, with the recovery looking more fragile than beforehand, even in Germany. In the US, the lower yields weigh on the greenback, but economic growth and stronger inflation certainly keep the taper train firm on the track. All in all, a second attempt to break below uptrend support has better chances of succeeding now.

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