Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 11 - 15

The pound fell to fresh two-and-a-half-year lows against the dollar on Friday as stronger-than-forecast U.S. employment data fuelled hopes that the country’s economic recovery is gaining traction.

GBP/USD hit 1.4887, the pair’s lowest since July 1, before settling at 1.4912, down 0.69% for the day and 1.46% lower for the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.4725 and resistance at 1.5046, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs last month, blowing past expectations for an increase of 160,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, from 7.9% in January.

The robust data added to speculation over an earlier-than-expected end to the Federal Reserve’s easing program, bolstering demand for the dollar.

Sentiment on the pound remained weak amid concerns over the prospects for a triple-dip recession and the possibility of more easing by the Bank of England.

On Thursday, BoE policymakers voted to leave interest rates on hold at a record low 0.5% and keep the size of its asset purchase program unchanged at GBP375 billion.

Data on Tuesday showed that activity in the U.K. service sector rose to a five-month high in February, easing fears over a triple-dip recession.

However, concerns over the economic outlook for the U.K. persisted after data on Thursday showed that the U.K. construction sector contracted last month. The U.K.’s manufacturing sector also contracted unexpectedly in February.

The pound also ended the week lower against the euro, with EUR/GBPsettling at 0.8717, up 1.16% for the week.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales, industrial production and inflation to determine the strength of the economic recovery. Markets will also be eyeing U.K. data on manufacturing and industrial production.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, March 12

The U.K. is to release official data on manufacturing and industrial production, leading economic indicators, as well as data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, March 13

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as official data on import prices, business inventories and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 14

The U.S. is to release government data on producer price inflation, the leading indicator of consumer inflation and the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. The U.S. is also to release data on industrial production, the capacity utilization rate and manufacturing activity in New York state.

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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 11 - 15

The euro fell to its lowest level in three months against the dollar on Friday after official data showed that the U.S. economy added significantly more jobs than forecast in February.

EUR/USD hit a session low of 1.2956, the pair’s lowest since December 11 before settling at 1.2997, 0.85% lower for the day and down 0.29% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2928, the low of December 11 and resistance at 1.3100, the high of March 1.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs last month, blowing past expectations for an increase of 160,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, from 7.9% in January.

The robust data added to speculation over an earlier-than-expected end to the Federal Reserve’s easing program, bolstering demand for the dollar.

The single currency rallied more than 1% against the dollar on Thursday after less dovish than expected comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference.

Draghi said policymakers discussed a rate cut but the "prevailing consensus" was to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.

Draghi also said that there is evidence that economic weakness has extended into the early part of this year but added that the bank still sees a recovery later this year.

The euro shrugged off a one notch downgrade of Italy by Fitch’s ratings agency on Friday, citing inconclusive elections results and a deepening recession.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales, industrial production and inflation to determine the strength of the economic recovery. Markets will also be eyeing developments in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 11

In the euro zone, France is to produce government data on industrial production. 

Tuesday, March 12

The U.K. is to release official data on manufacturing and industrial production, leading economic indicators, as well as data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, March 13

The euro zone is to produce official data on industrial production, while Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, as well as official data on import prices, business inventories and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 14

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which looks at current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint. Meanwhile, European Union leaders are to hold the first day of a two day economic summit.

The U.S. is to release government data on producer price inflation, the leading indicator of consumer inflation and the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 15

EU leaders are to hold the second day of an economic summit in Brussels. Meanwhile, the euro zone is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which comprises the majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. The U.S. is also to release data on industrial production, the capacity utilization rate and manufacturing activity in New York state.

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Take Responsibility for Your Trades

by BabyPips.com FX-Men Team | BabyPips.com

With just about any endeavor in life, success doesn't come easy. There's no sure-fire way to be successful, but I am pretty sure that no one ever became a success without taking responsibility for their actions.

There are circumstances that happen outside the scope of our control. But how you react to them is not among them. You have control over your emotions, reactions, and decisions.

Most of us overlook this, especially when we trade. Instead of taking responsibility for a bad trade, we blame the market, our broker, charts, and sometimes even the cat outside the window. But aren't we the ones doing our homework and identifying market opportunities and risks? Determining our entries and exits? Our position sizing?

Everyone has the same market to trade, so if you're not doing well while the trader next to you is, you need to accept the fact it's you and not anyone/anything else holding you back. Trading isn't for irresponsible boys and girls, but for disciplined men and women.

So, why do some traders routinely turn to others when their trades go bad? The answer is simple: it's human nature. Shifting the blame to someone or something else relieves the individual of some psychological pain caused by a mistake or loss. Below are some examples. Tell me if they sound familiar to you.

Trader Joe: The Follower

Joe takes the same trades as some famous forex trade bloggers. Whenever he loses, he shrugs it off and says that the bloggers' strategies simply didn't work out or are faulty. He goes on and looks for other bloggers that might give him winning trade signals.

Trader Jack: The Almost Prophet

Jack regularly blames the market when his trades get stopped out. He thinks that his setups would have worked out if only the economic events turned out as he had expected. You can also hear him curse market players whenever a strong technical support or resistance gets broken.

Trader Sam: The Mechanical Trader

Sam uses EAs and other trading strategies found in forex forums. Like trader Joe, he thinks that all his losses are caused by faulty EAs and fake strategies. After a month of losses, he moves on and looks for other strategies instead of tweaking his current approaches.

What's common among the traders above is that they all refuse to acknowledge that they were ultimately the ones who took the trades. While there's nothing wrong with following another trader's trade, losing to a wildcard event, or using EAs, it can be damaging if they refuse to acknowledge their part in pulling the trigger and failing to do something before they lost their trades.

Don't avoid the pain of responsibility because that kind of pain is good. It lets you know when something is wrong, which will hopefully force you to adjust, adapt and avoid the mistake that caused the pain. The sooner you recognize your responsibility, the sooner you can admit to yourself that you still have work to do.

Put in the work, rely on your own efforts, and draw your own conclusions as to how you want to engage the market. There's nothing wrong with listening to other people's advice, but you--and only you--will make the final decision. Never let someone else make your decisions for you.

So, don't be afraid of your losses and mistakes--accept, own, and learn from them! Review and reflect on your performance through the most important trading task of trade journaling. Through this process, you'll make your own decisions and accept 100% responsibility for them. Only then will you be on the right track to becoming a good trader.

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