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Friday, 10 May 2013

Dollar Storm: Fresh Surge Confirms EUR/USD Break Under 1.30, AUD/USD Under Parity


The dollar storm comes in waves. After the recent round sent EUR/USD to struggle with 1.30 and AUD/USD to flirt with parity, a new wave now confirms the breaks, with EUR/USD reaching a low of 1.2963 at the time of writing, and AUD/USD falling to 0.9970.
USD/JPY continues advancing above 1.0170 (after breaking the April 2009 peak of 101.44). GBP/USD is under 1.5360, but could still be considered the relatively resilient pair in the storm of the past 24 hours.
1.2960 provides support for EUR/USD: the line worked in both directions many times in the past. Recently, it worked as a cushion on April 24th. Below this level, it would be the lowest since early April. For more, see the EUR/USD forecast.
Update: EUR/USD extends its falls and falls to 1.2940. GBP/USD also its relative resilience and is now down to 1.5317. USD/JPY is getting close to 1.02.
The recent surge came on the background of Ben Bernanke’s speech. The chairman of the Federal Reserve usually rocks the markets, but this time, he really didn’t say anything related to monetary.
Perhaps markets were waiting for Bernanke to get out of the way before the next surge.

Forex - EUR/USD drops on softer-than-expected Italian output numbers

Weaker-than-expected Italian industrial output data sent the euro falling against the dollar on Friday.

The liquid greenback also served as a safe-haven for investors tracking events at a G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/USD was down 0.75% at 1.2945, up from a session low of 1.2936 and off from a high of 1.3051.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2936, the earlier low, and resistance at 1.3194, Wednesday's high.

The euro softened after Italy reported that industrial output dropped 0.8% in March after contracting 0.9% in February.

Analysts were expecting a 0.2% contraction in output at the country's factories, mines and utilities.

Elsewhere on Friday, official data revealed that Germany's trade surplus narrowed less than expected in March, falling to EUR17.6 from a surplus of EUR17.7 billion the previous month. 

Analysts were expecting the trade surplus to narrow to EUR16.5 billion in March.

The dollar, meanwhile, saw support as a meeting of G7 finance ministers kicked off, with investors eagerly awaiting hints as to when monetary stimulus programs may unwind and when fiscal reforms may take place.

The dollar also enjoyed residual support stemming from Thursday's weekly data on jobless claims.

The Department of Labor reported Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week fell by 4,000 to 323,000, defying expectations for an increase of 8,000 to 335,000.

The news sparked demand for the dollar by fueling sentiments the Fed may closer to dismantling dollar-weakening stimulus programs, including its monthly USD85 billion bond-buying program.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. economy added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, up from 138,000 in March, whose figure was revised up from 88,000.

April's figures far outpaced analysts' forecasts for a 145,000 figure.

The euro, meanwhile, was up against the pound and up against the yen, with EUR/GBP trading up 0.09% at 0.8450, and EUR/JPY trading up 0.42% at 131.79.

In the U.K. earlier, official data revealed the trade deficit narrowed less than expected in March, coming in at GBP9.1 billion from a of GBP9.2 billion deficit the previous month. 

Analysts were expecting the trade deficit to narrow to GBP9.0 billion in March.

Dollar pushes higher vs. rivals ahead of G7 talks

The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the other major currencies on Friday, as Thursday's strong U.S. initial jobless claims data continued to support demand for the greenback, while markets eyed a meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads from the Group of Seven nations. 

During U.S. morning trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, withEUR/USD sliding 0.53% to 1.2972. 

The greenback remained broadly supported after the Department of Labor on Thursday said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 8,000 to 335,000.

The data, coming after last week’s stronger than expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, eased concerns over a slowdown in the labor market. 

Meanwhile, the euro weakened after official data showed that industrial production in Italy dropped 0.8% in March, more than the expected 0.2% decline, after a 0.9% fall the previous month. 

Earlier Friday, official data showed that Germany trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected in March, falling to EUR17.6 from a surplus of EUR17.7 billion the previous month. 

Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to EUR16.5 billion in March. 

The greenback was also higher against the pound, with GBP/USDretreating 0.61% to 1.5355. 

Official data earlier showed that the U.K. trade deficit narrowed less-than-expected in March, easing up to GBP9.1 billion from a deficit of GBP9.2 billion the previous month. 

Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to GBP9.0 billion in March. 

Elsewhere, the greenback was higher against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY jumping 1.15% to trade at 101.77, and withUSD/CHF rallying 0.93% to 0.9570. 

In Japan, official data showed that Japan's current account swung into a surplus of JPY0.34 trillion in Japan, from a deficit of JPY0.03 trillion the previous month. 

Analysts had expected the current account to rise to a surplus of JPY0.48 trillion in March. 

The greenback was higher against its Canadian, Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with USD/CAD climbing 0.52% to 1.0119,AUD/USD tumbling 0.99% to 0.9991 and NZD/USD plummeting 1.38% to 0.8275. 

Earlier Friday, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy meeting showed that policymakers lowered its inflation forecast following an interest rate cut this week. 

On May 7, the RBA lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record 2.75%. 

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.61% to 83.28. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on the federal budget balance. 

In addition, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads were to hold the first day of a two day summit meeting.

U.S. futures higher on positive jobless report; Dow Jones up 0.25%

U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open on Friday, as data showing that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since January 2008 eased concerns over the strength of the job market recovery in the world's first economy. 

Ahead of the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.25% increase, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.16% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.18% rise. 

On Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 8,000 to 335,000.

Jobless claims for the preceding week were revised up to 327,000 from a previously reported increase of 324,000.

The data, coming after last week’s stronger than expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, eased concerns over a slowdown in the labor market. 

Internet-linked companies were expected to be active, amid reports Yahoo! Chief Executive Officer Marissa Mayer is exploring whether to bid for the Hulu LLC streaming-TV service, sending shares in the company up 0.23% in pre-market trade. 

According to Bloomberg, Amazon.com, up 0.21% in early trading, has also expressed an interest in Hulu. 

Separately, Priceline.com saw shares plummet 2.75% in extended trading, after the U.S. online-travel agent forecast second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as international expansion exposes the company to economic swings in Europe. 

Financial stocks were also likely to be in focus, after JP Morgan was sued by California over claims that the biggest U.S. credit-card lender pursued lawsuits against defaulted borrowers based on insufficient evidence. 

Elsewhere, billionaire Carl Icahn, seeking to upend a USD24.4 billion buyout of Dell by its founder and Silver Lake Management, proposed an alternative that could have investors keep their stakes in the computer maker and get USD12 a share in cash. 

Other stocks in focus included Gold Fields, scheduled to report earnings later in the day. 

Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were higher. The EURO STOXX 50 climbed 0.61%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.51%, Germany's DAX advanced 0.59%, while Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.47%. 

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 0.47%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index surged 2.93%. 

Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on the federal budget balance.

Forex Trading Signal for 10 May 2013


                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

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EUR/USD
Down Trend :

 (1) SELL
E/P: 1.30720
T/P: 1.30400
S/L: 1.31000

 
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GBP/USD
Down Trend:

(1) SELL
E/P: 1.54829
T/P: 1.54300
S/L: 1.55200


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