European stocks remain mostly higher in thin trade; Dax up 0.25%

European stocks remained mostly higher in thin trade on Monday, after Friday's downbeat U.S. data fuelled fresh uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program. 

During European afternoon trade, the EURO STOXX 50 added 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.17%, while Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.25%. 

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs. 

The unemployment rate fell to a five year low of 6.7% from 7% in November, but this was due in part to people dropping out of the labor force. 

The surprisingly weak data tempered expectations that the Fed would cut its stimulus program again this month. The Fed cited a stronger labor market in its decision to cut its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December, reducing it to USD75 billion-a-month.

Financial stocks were broadly higher, as French lenders BNP Paribas and Societe Generale advanced 0.65% and 1.98%, while Germany's Deutsche Bank surged 3.52%. 

Among peripheral lenders, Spanish banks Banco Santander and BBVA rallied 0.88% and 2.23% respectively, while Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit gained 1.54% and 2.08%. 

Elsewhere, Alcatel-Lucent soared 4.75% amid reports the French network-equipment maker is in talks to sell its enterprise business to potential buyers. 

In London, FTSE 100 dipped 0.01%, weighed by losses in energy stocks. 
Tullow Oil led losses on the index, with shares plummeting 2.23%, while rival BP dropped 0.96. 

Meanwhile, mining stocks were mixed, as Glencore Xstrata and Polymetal lost 0.03% and 0.85%, while BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto rose 0.03% and 0.43%. 

In the financial sector, stocks remained broadly higher. HSBC Holdings added 0.16% and Lloyds Banking jumped 1.20%, while the Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays rallied 2.44% and 3.18% respectively. 

Adding to gains, Debenhams soared 5.09% after Sports Direct International acquired a 4.63% stake in the U.K. department store and said it wants to work with the company at an operational level. 

In the U.S., equity markets pointed to a lower open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.18% fall, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.28% loss, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.28% decline. 

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GBP/USD Outlook Jan.13-17

GBP/USD managed to post some gains last week, as the pair closed at 1.6481. This week’s highlights include CPI and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the UK, the Manufacturing and Construction PMIs dropped in the December releases. US employment numbers started off the week strongly, as ADP Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Claims looked sharp. However, NFP tumbled to 74 thousand, a two-year low,

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. CPI: Tuesday, 9:30.CPI is one of the most important economic indicators and can have a significant impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The index has been very steady, with the past two releases just above the 2.0% level. No change is expected in the December release.
2. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. Producer Price Index measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index has looked awful , posting four straight declines. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of -0.2%.
3. RPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. The Retail Price Index Input is important gauge of consumer inflation. The index has posted two straight readings of 2.6%, and little change is expected in the December release.
4. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 10:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators, but has only a minor impact on GBP/USD since most of the data has already been released. The index dropped to a gain of just 0.4% last month, a four-month low. Will the indicator rebound in the December release?
5. RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. This indicator measures the percentage of surveyors reporting property price increases. The index has been quite steady in recent readings, and more of the same is expected in the upcoming release.
6. 30-year Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. The average yield on 30-year bonds dropped to 3.61% in the November auction. The indicator is a useful gauge of investor confidence, but is unlikely to affect the movement of GBP/USD.
7. Retail Sales: Friday, 9:30. This key indicator helps track the level of consumer confidence in the UK. In November, Retail Sales bounced back from a decline and posted a gain of 0.3%, which matched the estimate. The markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with the estimate standing at 0.5%.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6411, which was also the low of the week. The pair touched a high of 1.6517, breaking above resistance at 1.6475 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.6481.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.6990, which is protecting the key 1.70 level. This line has remained intact since October 2008.

Next is resistance at 1.6705, which has held firm since May 2011. This is followed by the round number of 1.6600.

1.6475 continues to be busy and was breached four a fourth straight week. The line has switched to a support role as we begin the new week.

This is followed by 1.6343, which continues to be the first support line. It has some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels.

1.6247 continues to provide the pair with strong support. This was a key resistance line in October and November 2012.

1.6125 is the next support level. This line has held steady since late November.

The round number of 1.60, a key psychological barrier, is providing the pair with strong support.

The final support level for now is 1.5893, which last saw action in November.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

US employment numbers were a mix this week, throwing a January taper into doubt. At the same time, the fact that QE tapering is up and running could bolster confidence in the US economy and help the dollar. In the UK, PMIs remain strong but leveled off in December. Is this a signal that the hot UK economy has run out of steam? With the BOE firmly stating that it will not raise interest rates, the pound will need some strong data this week to maintain high levels against the US dollar.

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EUR/USD Forecast January 13-17

EUR/USD had an interesting week, in which it managed to emerge from the lows and end higher. Can it break out of range? Industrial Production, the ECB Monthly Bulletin and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

After the ECB left the rates unchanged for a second month in a row, Mario Draghi reassured that the central bank keeps track of money markets to prevent further damage to the euro and promised to deal with falling inflation in the Euro area without specifying the means of action. This hurt the euro, but the pair was later aided by news from the other side of the Atlantic. The US Non-Farm Payrolls badly disappointed with a gain of only 74K. The drop in the unemployment rate only marginally helped, and left a lot of confusion. What will be the next driver of the pair? Let’s start:

Updates:

• EURUSD: Temporary Corrective Rally In Progress (Elliott Wave): EURUSD moved higher on Friday which should not be a surprise as we know that after every five waves, a...
• Weak payrolls report may stop further tapering: Idea of the Day After the much weaker than expected US jobs report on Friday, the dollar is on the...

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00. Italian industrial production edged up more than expected in October, increasing 0.5% following a 0.2% gain in September. Consumer goods production increased 0.8% in October from September but energy products declined by 0.9%. Economists expected a more modest climb of 0.3%. On a yearly base, Italy’s industrial production dropped 0.5% in October from the same month a year earlier, posting the 26th consecutive monthly decline. Nevertheless, October’s fall was significantly lower than the 2.9% decline in the prior month. Another gain of 0.6% is expected now.
2.  French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45.  France’s consumer prices index, remained unchanged in November following a decline of 0.1% a month earlier. On a yearly base, the inflation rate increased by 0.7. Economists expected a modest rise of 0.1%. Food prices increased by 0.1%, manufactured goods, also grew by 0.1%, however a 1.2% fall in transport and communication activities pulled down the total services’ costs by 0.1%. Likewise, energy prices declined by 0.6% on falling costs of petroleum products. French CPI is expected to reach 0.4%.
3.  Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. Euro zone industrial output edged down sharply in October, dropping 1.1% contrary to market forecast of a 0.4% gain. This decline was preceded by a 0.2% fall in September suggesting recovery is still a long way off. The Eurozone exited recession in the second quarter but came to a stand still in the third quarter. Downside risks continue to cloud the Eurozone’s recovery with high unemployment rate and low business confidence. The ECB cut rates in November in hope this move will aid growth. A gain of 1.6% is predicted this time.
4. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00. The euro zone trade surplus nearly doubled on a yearly base in October, aided by a modest rise in exports and a fall in imports, indicating an improvement in external economic activity, but weaker domestic demand. The trade surplus reached 17.2 billion euros ($23.62 billion) in October, compared with 9.6 billion euro surplus a year ago and following 12.4 billion euros in the previous month. This report showed an improvement in the weaker southern region with a 5% rise in exports from Greece and Spain and a 4% gain in Portugal. A smaller surplus of 16.7 billion euros is expected now.
5. German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. Inflation in Germany edged up 0.2% on a monthly bases in November after a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The rise was in line with market consensus. The main reason behind the low inflation is the falling prices of mineral oil products, down 6.5%, while food prices advanced 3.2%. The average inflation for the twelve months back was 1.1%, below the 1.5% average in November 2012. Another rise to 0.4% is predicted this time.
6. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00.  The European Central Bank stated in monthly bulletin on December that it would continue to monitor market rates and will not allow them to rise too much to aid economic recovery. The editorial of the bank’s bulletin was identical to its main policy statement, presented by ECB President Mario Draghi after the rate cut meeting. The ECB will continue its forward guidance policy as well as provide liquidity. This release will show what the ECB thinks about inflation and the lack of it, towards recent decision.
7. Inflation data: Thursday, 10:00. According to the preliminary release, consumer prices in the euro zone rose by a low rate of 0.8% in December, with core inflation falling to 0.7%. These numbers will probably be confirmed. Core inflation is lower than in October. October’s numbers triggered the rate cut.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar started the week with a rise, but it fell short of the 1.3675 line (mentioned last week). It then dropped to support at 1.3550, more than once. A late rally on the NFP fell short of the round 1.37 line and with a struggle around the 1.3675 line.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.4036 was a separator back in 2011, and awaits the pair if it breaks above 1.40. 1.3940 was a peak in September 2011, over two years ago, and is just before the round number of 1.40.

1.3832 was the 2013 peak (excluding the post-Christmas break). The failure of the pair to get close to this line for a second time might make it a top for a long time, despite the false break. 1.38 is a round number and also worked as a temporary cap during that period of time and also in October 2013.

1.3710 was the previous 2013 peak, and served as a clear separator. The pair needed a big trigger to break above this line, and when it lost it again, the fall was painful. 1.3675 capped the pair in December and also provided some support back in October. It also stalled a recovery in January 2014 and is a key line right now.

1.3615 worked as resistance in December, as an upper bound for the range. The line is becoming weaker now. Below, 1.3550 worked as support as January 2014 and also beforehand. It is a key line to the downside.

1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. The round number of 1.34 worked as resistance several times in 2013, and is strengthening now.

1.3320 worked as a double top in early September and it was crossed only with a Sunday gap. It remains a clear separator of ranges. It is followed by 1.3240, which capped the pair in April and also had a role in August. It worked as support in September.

1.3175 capped the pair during July 2013. 1.3100 is worked as temporary resistance in December 2012 and is becoming more important once again, after capping a recovery attempt in June and then in July and providing support in September.

Uptrend support convincingly broken

From early November, the pair trended higher, riding above an uptrend support line. As mentioned last week, it was hard for the pair to hold onto the line for too long. The break below was certainly painful.

I am neutral on EUR/USD

On one hand, Draghi indeed hurt the euro, and the danger of deflation is certainly present. This weighs on the euro. The ECB might have to act later in the year to support the system, and this could keep the euro depressed.

On the other hand, the steam ran out of the dollar due to the NFP. All other figures are positive, and the we still might see a positive revision and another dose of tapering in January, pushing EUR/USD lower. However, for the upcoming week, the headline NFP is set to counter any euro weakness.

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Forex Weekly Outlook Jan. 13-17

The US dollar had a tough week, mostly due to the surprisingly disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls. Will this set the trend for the rest of the month, or is it just temporary? US retail sales, PPI , inflation and employment data, Ben Bernanke’s speech and consumer sentiment are the main events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls posted a disappointingly small job gain of 74K in December, the lowest since October 2011. The unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.7%, mainly due to a 0.2% drop in the labor force participation rate. The unemployment rate becomes confusing. However, this release conflicts the recent flow of positive data from the US job market showing fewer layoffs and steady job gains, indicating a solid recovery. Therefore, the setback could be temporary or weather related due to winter storm Hercules. Will this reading prove false in the coming weeks? In the euro-zone, Draghi strengthened his forward guidance regarding rates, and this weighed on the euro, albeit temporarily. A big mover was the Canadian dollar, which fell to a 4 year low against the greenback. Let’s start,

Updates:

• Weak payrolls report may stop further tapering: Idea of the Day After the much weaker than expected US jobs report on Friday, the dollar is on the...

1. US Federal Budget Balance: Monday, 7:00. The Federal Government increased its budget deficit in November to $135.2 billion from $91.6 billion in October. The reading was better than the %142.6 billion projected by analysts. US budget balance improved in 2013 by 10.2% y/y, due to a rise in total revenues. Corporate income taxes edged up 44.1% y/y while Social Security receipts climbed 19.7% y/y. Individual income taxes advanced 2.7% y/y though excise taxes fell 5.3% y/y. Meanwhile expenditures fell 4.7% compared to 2012, led lower by a 10.0% y/y drop in defense spending. Income security payments dropped 5.0% y/y with the improvement in labor markets and Medicare payments fell 1.8% y/y. Interest payments also were off 16.2% y/y. To the upside this fiscal year, veterans benefits grew 6.9% y/y, Social Security outlays rose 5.2% y/y and outlays on health programs advanced 3.6% y/y. a surplus of $44.3 billion is expected this time.
2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. The UK’s consumer prices, fell to a four-year low of 2.1% in November, following 2.2% in the previous month, caused by a milder increase in food and energy prices. Analysts expect inflation would edge up in December due to an increase in energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding food and energy remained subdued below 2%. The Bank of England intends to keep annual inflation close to their 2% target, but the rate has been above this level since November 2009. Inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1%.
3. US Retail Sales: Tuesday 13:30. U.S. retail sales increased handsomely in November, climbing 0.7% amid a boost in automobile sales and a range of other goods. This strong performance was another sign for the Fed to start its tapering move and prompted analysts to raise their fourth quarter consumer-spending projections. The strong figure was preceded by a 0.6% gain in October. Meantime, core sales gained 0.4% after a 0.5% increase in the prior month. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.2% while core sales are expected to advance 0.4%.
4. US PPI: Wednesday, 13:30. U.S. Producer Price Index for finished goods dropped 0.1% in November, down for the third consecutive month, while economists expected a flat reading. Energy prices led this decline for the second month in a row. Core prices excluding energy and food products increased 0.1%. Over the last 12 months, PPI declined six times while the average gain was less than 0.1%, indicating weaker demand. A rise of 0.5% is anticipated this time.
5. Australian employment data: Thursday, 00:30.  Australian labor market beat expectations in Novemberwith the biggest job gain in seven months, adding 21,000 new positions instead of the 10,300 increase anticipated by analysts. This increase was preceded by a contraction of 700 jobs in October. However this nice gain did not stop unemployment from rising to 5.8%, as more people entered the labor force. This positive release came a day after General Motors announced it would stop its car production by the end of 2017, which will result in a 2,900 job loss as well as more in supporting industries. Nevertheless, Australian manufacturers are optimistic regarding future conditions in 2014. A job gain of 10,300 is expected while unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 5.8%.
6. US inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. consumer prices remained unchanged in November, held back by declines in gasoline and natural gas prices, while analysts expected a 0.1% rise. The low inflation including October’s reading of minus 0.1% does not go hand in hand with the general signs of improvement in the US market. Meanwhile, core CPI edged up 0.2% after increasing 0.1% in October posting the third consecutive increase averaging 1.7% over the past 12 months, a bit lower than the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. CPI is expected to reach 0.3% while core CPI is expected to increase 0.1%.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits edged down by 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, beating predictions for a 337,000 rise. The ongoing recovery process in the US job market continues with a steady job gain and fewer layoffs. The less volatile four-week average dropped 9,750 to 349,000. Job creation is picking up indicating economic activity is gaining momentum. Furthermore, the Q4 growth projections have largely improved amid a flow of positive data released in recent weeks. Another drop to 327,000 is expected now.
8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 15:00. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region increased mildly in December, reaching 7.0 after posting 6.5 in the previous month. However the reading was below the 1.0 points projected by analysts. Nevertheless, the index showed an expansion trend for seven straight months. The new orders index edged up to 15.4 from 11.8 in November, while the employment component climbed to 2.2 from 1.1 the prior month. The six-month business conditions index declined to a four-month low of 44.0 from 45.8 in November.  A rise to 8.8 is forecast.
9. Ben Bernanke speaks: Thursday, 16:10. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak in a live webcast event in Washington. Bernanke will be asked about the Federal Reserve past, present and future. This is the first appearance after the Non-Farm Payrolls. Market volatility may be expected.
10. US Building Permits: Friday, 13:30. The number of building permits issues in the U.S. declined to a seasonally adjusted 1.007 million in November  below market consensus of 0.990 million, remaining at their highest level since January 2008. Likewise, U.S. housing starts edged up 22.7% in November reaching a seasonally adjusted 1.091 million from 0.890 million in October, beating predictions for an increase to 0.950 million. The seasonally adjusted  building permits are expected to remain unchanged at 1.01 million.
11. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday 14:55. UoM’s index of preliminary consumer sentiment reading surged to 82.5 for December, following the final reading of 75.1 for November. This was the highest release since July, beating analyst forecasts for a reading of 76.2. The improvement occurred among households with incomes below $75,000 focusing mainly on future economic outlook for the year ahead. Current economic conditions jumped to 97.9 from 88.0 in November, beating expectations for a reading of 90, while its gauge of consumer expectations rose to 72.7 from 66.8, above the 68 expected. Another rise to 83.4 is expected this time.

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U.S. futures fall as nonfarm payrolls weigh; Dow Jones down 0.23%

U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Monday, ahead of fresh earnings reports later in the week, while Friday's disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data fuelled uncertainty over the strength of the U.S. job market's recovery. 


Ahead of the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.23% fall, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.39% decline, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.42% drop. 

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs. 

The unemployment rate fell to a five year low of 6.7% from 7% in November, but this was due in part to people dropping out of the labor force. 

The surprisingly weak data tempered expectations that the Fed would cut its stimulus program again this month. The Fed cited a stronger labor market in its decision to cut its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December, reducing it to USD75 billion-a-month. 

Financial stocks were likely to be active, after the Federal Reserve was said to be investigating whether traders at the world’s biggest banks rigged benchmark currency rates. Shares in Bank of America were still up 0.12% in pre-market trade. 

Meanwhile, Target was expected to remain in focus, after the discount retailer on Friday hiked its estimate of customers affected by as recent mass data breach to up to 110 million and said sales had been "meaningfully weaker than expected." 

Also in the retail sector, Gap said its yearly profit might hit the higher end of its guidance, while Abercrombie & Fitch rose its full-year earnings outlook, sending shares soaring over 11% on Friday. 

Elsewhere, Sanofi reportedly agreed to pay USD700 million for access to drugs developed by Massachusetts-based Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and a 12% stake in the biotechnology company. 

Among auto companies, General Motors slipped 0.25% in early trading after saying it is closer to issuing a dividend for the first time since suspending the payout in July 2008. 

Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were mostly higher. The EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.21%, France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.15%, Germany's DAX added 0.18%, while Britain's FTSE 100 dipped 0.01%. 

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index edged up 0.19%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index remained closed for a national holiday
.

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EUR/USD Jan. 13 – Steady After Recent Gains

EUR/USD has started the new week quietly, after some strong gains late last week. The pair has jumped close to a cent since Wednesday, as it trades in the mid-1.36 range in Monday’s European session. On Friday, Non-Farm Payrolls slumped to an eighteen-month low, but the Unemployment Rate improved sharply. It’s a very quiet start to the week, with just two releases on the schedule. In the Eurozone, Italian Industrial Production dropped to 0.3%, missing the estimate. The sole US release is the Federal Budget Balance.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD was steady in the Asian session, consolidating at 1.3675. The pair has edged lower in the European session.

Current range: 1.3525 to 1.3615.

Further levels in both directions: 

• Below: 1.3615, 1.3550, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240 and 1.3175.
• Above: 1.3675, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3832, 1.3940 and 1.4036.
• On the upside, 1.3675 is under strong pressure. 1.3710 follows.
• 1.3615 is providing support. 1.3550 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 9:00 Italian Industrial Production. Exp. 0.6%. Actual 0.3%.
• 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Exp. 44.3B.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Non-Farm Payrolls tumble: US employment data had a promising start in 2014, but Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls was a disaster, posting its lowest gain since May 2012. The key employment indicator dropped to just 74 thousand, down from 203 thousand a month earlier. This was nowhere near the estimate of 196 thousand.  Although the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%, this was due to a drop in the participation rate. The participation rate dropped to 62.8%, its lowest since 1978. This figure points to a worrying trend of a jobless US recovery.  
• Taper likely to continue despite weak NFP: Last week’s dismal Non-Farm Payrolls report may create some concern in the markets, but is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s path of tapering QE, which it started just this month. In December, outgoing Fed chair Bernard Bernanke strong hinted that the Fed planned to wind up QE by the end of 2014, reducing the asset-purchase program by increments of $10 billion at each meeting. The Fed next meets for a policy meeting on January 28, and the question is will the Fed reduce QE by another $10 billion, down to $65 billion each month. Most analysts feel that one bad employment report will not affect the taper schedule and we will see a reduction in QE at the next meeting.       
• ECB holds course: The first ECB rate announcement of 2014 was a non-event, as the central bank held the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.25%. Mario Draghi’s press conference did not make waves and move the currency markets, as has often been the case in the past. Draghi said that monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is needed to help the Eurozone economy recover, and that interest rates will likely remain at present or lower levels for the foreseeable future. If growth and inflation indicators continue to look weak, the ECB may have to take action at its next meeting in February.
• Portugal heads for bailout exit: Portugal is scheduled to end its bailout program in May, which saw the country receive a rescue package from the EU and the IMF which amounted to EUR 78 billion. Portuguese Treasury Minister Castelo Branco is hopeful that the country will be able to sell bonds through auctions before May. Until now, Portugal has been relying on banks to sell bonds. The end of the bailout should allow Portugal full access to debt markets. Ireland, which exited a bailout program in December, became the first Eurozone member to do so since the debt crisis which rocked the bloc in 2009.

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