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Sunday 24 March 2013

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 25 - 29

The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday as sentiment on the single currency was boosted by hopes for a resolution on an alternative bailout deal for Cyprus.

EUR/USD hit a session high of 1.3009 on Friday before settling at 1.2991, up 0.71% for the day and 0.36% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2878, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3076, the high of March 12.

The euro found support after Greece’s third largest lender Piraeus Bank agreed to acquire the Greek branches of Cyprus's banks to protect them from the crisis in Cyprus.

Meanwhile, political leaders in Cyprus prepared to pass legislation to needed to secure a EUR10 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund ahead of a Monday deadline.

A previous agreement that included a levy on deposits in Cypriot banks was rejected by the country's parliament on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook for the euro zone weighed after the Ifo Institute said Friday that its German business climate index slipped to 106.7 in March from 107.4 a month earlier. 

The data came one day after a report showed an unexpected contraction in the German manufacturing sector in March.

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will leave monetary policy unchanged in spite of recent signs that the U.S. recovery is gaining traction, citing concerns over high unemployment levels and risks from  tax increases and federal government spending cuts.

Speaking at the end of the bank’s two-day policy meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank may gradually wind down the pace of its bond buying, but only after the labor market shows signs of being on a more stable footing.

The euro was higher against the pound on Friday, with EUR/GBP rising to session highs of 0.8546 before settling at 0.8530, up 0.33% for the day, trimming the week’s losses to 0.53%.

Elsewhere, EUR/JPY rose to session highs of 123.46, before settling at 122.75, up 0.27% for the day and 0.55% lower for the week.

In the week ahead investors will be closely monitoring developments in Cyprus as a failure to reach a deal could see the country exit the euro zone.

Market participants will also be watching German data on retail sales on Tuesday amid concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone and an Italian government debt auction on Thursday.

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data including reports on durable goods orders, home sales and consumer confidence.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 25

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in London; his comments will be closely watched for any indication of the possible future direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, March 26

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release a flurry of economic data with government reports on durable goods orders and new home sales as well as a report on consumer confidence. 

Wednesday, March 27

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. In addition, Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

The U.S. is to produce industry data in pending home sales and a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 28

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on the change in the number of people employed.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and revised data on fourth quarter economic growth.  

Friday, March 29

Markets in Germany are to remain closed in observance of Good Friday.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal spending and expenditure and revised data form the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

GBP/USD Outlook March 25-29


The British pound enjoyed another strong week, gaining over one cent against the US dollar. GBP/USD pushed above the 1.52 level, closing at 1.5229. There are nine releases in the upcoming week, highlighted by Current Account. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The pound took advantage of positive British data late last week. Retail Sales jumped 2.1%, its sharpest rise since March 2010. As well, Public Sector Net Borrowing posted a much smaller deficit than expected.
GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  GBP USD Forecast Mar 25-29
  1. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Monday, 9:30. This important housing indicator has been fairly steady, but has fallen below the market estimate for the past three readings. The indicator dipped to 32.3 thousand in the February reading, well below the estimate of 34.2 thousand. The March estimate stands at 33.6 thousand.
  2. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 26th-29th. Analysts are interested in House Price indexes as higher house prices signify more acitivity in the housing market. The index recorded a modest gain of 0.2% in the Febuary release, and no change is expected in the March reading.
  3. Chancellor George Osborne Speaks: Tuesday, 10:00. Chancellor Osborne released the UK budget last week, and will testify before the Treasury Select Committee in London. Remarks by the Chancellor which are more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
  4. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 11:00. The indicator came in at 8 points in February, a steep drop from the January reading of 17 points. As well, this figure was well below the estimate of 15 points. The markets are expecting a rebound in March, with a forecast of 12 points. Will the indicator meet or beat the estimate?
  5. Current AccountWednesday, 9:30. Current Account is the highlight of this week. This is a key indicator, as a stronger reading indicates that foreigners are purchasing more British goods and services with pounds. The February reading saw a sharp reduction in the Current Account Deficit, which fell to 12.8 billion pounds. This beat the estimate of 14.1 billion pounds. The March forecast calls for a modest drop in the deficit, at 12.4 billion pounds.
  6. Final GDP: Wednesday, 9:30. Analysts are always interested in GDP releases, which measure the change in value of goods and services of the UK economy. Final GDP, which is released each quarter, jumped 0.9% in Q4, its sharpest increase since 2010. The markets are bracing for a much lower reading in March, with an estimate of -0.3%. Will the indicator stay in positive territory?
  7. GfK Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 00:01. Consumer Confidence has been mired deep in negative territory, signifying that the British consumer is very pessimistic about the economy’s prospects. The indicator has been pegged at -26 points for the past two readings, and the March estimate stands at -27 points.
  8. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Thursday, 9:30. This indicator is released on a quarterly basis. The survey polls bank and other lenders for their views of short-term credit conditions in the UK. If the indicator points to rising debt levels, this in turn is indicative that lenders are comfortable providing loans and consumers are borrowing and spending more.
  9. Index of Services: Thursday, 9:30. This third-tier indicator measures the change in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the government and private service sectors. The index dropped sharply from the February reading, posting a decline of 0.1%. The markets are expecting another weak release in March, with an estimate of -0.2%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5102. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5026, briefly breaching the support line of 1.5061 (discussed last week). The pair then rebounded, touching a high of 1.5247, before closing the week at 1.5229.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with resistance at 1.5750. This line saw a lot of activity in the first half of February, before the pound began its
recent slump. This is followed by resistance at 1.5648. Below, there is resistance at 1.5567. This  line has remained in place since mid-February. This is followed by resistance at 1.5484. Next, there is resistance at 1.5406. Next, there is resistance is at 1.5282, whcih has not been tested since late February.
GBP/USD is receiving support at 1.5189. This line was in a resistance role last week, but the pair broke through as pushed higher. Next, there is support at 1.5061. This is followed by 1.5010, protecting the all important 1.50 level. We next encounter support at 1.4896, just below the round number of 1.49. Below is 1.4765, which has remained intact since June 2010. The finals support level for now is at 1.4665.
I remain bearish on GBP/USD.
The pound enjoyed another strong week, but let’s not forget that the GBP/USD has plunged about 10 cents since the beginning of the year. The UK economy continues to sputter, in contrast to the US, which has posted some solid numbers of late. Given the sharp contrast in the prospects for the two economies, the pound will have a tough time making more gains against the dollar.
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Forex Trading Signals for 22nd March 2013



                                                                                


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EUR/USD
Trading Range:   1.29900 - 1.28800
Down Trend : SELL
E/P: 1.29054
T/P: 1.28700
S/L: 1.29600

GBP/USD
Trading Range: Trading Range:   1.51070 - 1.50000
Up Trend: BUY
E/P: 1.51591
T/P: 1.52000
S/L: 1.51000
 
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USD/JPY
Trading Range: Trading Range:   95.700 - 94.000
Down Trend : SELL
E/P:  95.000
T/P: 94.500
S/L:  95.450

USD/CHF
Trading Range: Trading Range:   0.9350 - 0.9500
Up Trend : BUY
E/P: 0.9460
T/P: 0.95000
S/L: 0.99400




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