Gold extends gains as Ukraine unease grows

Gold prices edged up in U.S. trading on Monday after Ukrainian separatists over the weekend voted in favor of self rule, which bolstered the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.

The June contract settled down 0.01% at $1,287.60 on Friday.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, goldfutures for June delivery traded at 1,296.30 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, up 0.68%, up from a session low of $1,278.30 and off a high of $1,303.90.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,278.30 a troy ounce, the session low, and resistance at $1,314.70, last Wednesday's high.

Pro-Russian separatists claimed victory in a weekend referendum on self rule in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, which stirred concerns that the country is sliding closer to civil war.

The vote has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West, which has threatened to hit Russia with fresh sanctions.

Elsewhere, a rebounding euro weakened demand for the dollar, which also supported gold, as the greenback and the yellow metal tend to trade inversely with one another.

Last week, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, though the euro dropped after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank's governing council would feel comfortable with acting at its next meeting in June.

By Monday, the single currency found support, which gave gold room to climb.

On Monday, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said medium-term inflation outlook will take high priority when monetary authorities consider implementing fresh policy measures.

He said the ECB was considering a wide range of policy options but stopped short of indicating what the bank may decide.

He stressed the ECB won't ignore the euro's strength but added that the exchange rate is not a policy target.

Elsewhere Monday, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde renewed calls for more stimulus from the ECB, warning that persistently low inflation rates posed a serious threat to the European recovery.

Meanwhile, silver for July delivery was up 2.34% at $19.568 a troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery were up 2.09% at $3.148 a pound.

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Copper hits 3-week high ahead of China industrial output data

Copper prices rose to a three-week high on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key Chinese economic data to further gauge the health of the world’s second largest economy.

Copper hit a session high of $3.124 a pound earlier, the most since April 28. Prices added 0.67%, or 2.0 cents, on Friday to settle at $3.083 a pound.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,copper for July delivery advanced 1.26%, or 3.9 cents, to trade at $3.122 a pound during European morning hours.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.052 a pound, the low from May 9 and resistance at $3.138 a pound, the high from April 28.

Copper traders looked ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data scheduled for Tuesday, including reports on industrial production and retail sales.

Data released last week showed that China’s surplus widened to $18.45 billion in April from a surplus of $7.7 billion in March, compared to estimates for a surplus of $13.9 billion.

Exports climbed 0.9% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 1.7% decline and following a 6.6% drop in March. Imports rose 0.8%, compared to forecasts for a 2.3% decline and after plunging 11.3% in the previous month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery rose 0.22%, or $2.80, to trade at $1,290.40 a troy ounce, while silver for July delivery advanced 0.9%, or 17.2 cents, to trade at $19.29 an ounce.

Investors remained cautious after pro-Russian separatists claimed victory in a weekend referendum on self-rule in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, fuelling fears that the country is sliding closer to civil war. The vote has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West.

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European stocks mostly higher, eyes on Ukraine; Dax up 0.17%

European stocks were mostly higher on Monday, still supported by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's comments the week before, although concerns over ongoing tensions in Ukraine persisted.

European equities remained supported after ECB President Mario Draghi said last week that the bank is "comfortable" with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.During European morning trade, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.26%, while Germany’s DAXadded 0.17%.

The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold, as widely expected.

But investors remained cautious after pro-Russian separatists claimed victory in a weekend referendum on self-rule in eastern Ukraine, fuelling fears that the country is sliding closer to civil war. The vote has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West.

Financial stocks were mostly lower, as French lenders BNP Paribas (PARIS:BNPP) and Societe Generale (PARIS:SOGN) declined 0.66% and 0.35%, while Germany's Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBKGn) retreated 0.53%.

Among peripheral lenders however, Intesa Sanpaolo (MILAN:ISP) eased 0.08% and Unicredit (MILAN:CRDI) climbed 0.80% in Italy, while BBVA (MADRID:BBVA) fell 0.18% and Banco Santander (MADRID:SAN) rose 0.33% in Spain.

Elsewhere, Sky Deutschland (XETRA:SKYDn) surged 7.89% after British Sky Broadcasting Group (LONDON:BSY) said it is working on a deal valued at about €10 billion euros to acquire the company.

Adding to gains, Air France -KLM (PARIS:AIRF) rallied 1.89% after saying passenger numbers climbed 1.8% in April.

In London, commodity-heavy FTSE 100 added 0.17%, supported by gains in the mining sector.

Shares in Antofagasta (LONDON:ANTO) jumped 1.85% and Bhp Billiton (LONDON:BLT) advanced 1.94%, while rival companies Vedanta Resources (LONDON:VED) and Rio Tinto (LONDON:RIO) surged 2.67% and 2.78% respectively.

Meanwhile, BSkyB led losses on the index, down 2.58%, following reports Rupert Murdoch is seeking a deal to transform the country into a European satellite-TV giant while leaving his U.S.-based 21st Century Fox focused on entertainment programming.

In the financial sector, stocks were mostly lower. Lloyds Banking (LONDON:LLOY) edged down 0.24% and the Royal Bank of Scotland (LONDON:RBS) slipped 0.28%, while Barclays (LONDON:BARC) saw shares tumble 1.15%. HSBC Holdings (LONDON:HSBA) overperformed on the other hand, rallying 1.13%.

In the U.S., equity markets pointed to a higher open. The Dow 30 futurespointed to a 0.15% gain, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.17% rise, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.25% increase.

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GBP/USD Outlook May 12-16

GBP/USD was volatile last week. After climbing very close to the key 1.70 level, the pair dropped sharply and closed the week with slight losses, at 1.6845. This week’s highlights are Employment Change and the BOE Inflation Report. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound climbed higher early in the week, thanks to astrong Services PMI. However, a weak Manufacturing Production release weighed on currency. In the US, Services PMI and Unemployment Claims were strong, but guarded optimism from Fed chair Janet Yellen limited gains by the US dollar.

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01. This indicator measures the change in retail sales in stores affiliated with the BRC. It helps analysts track retail sales, as the official Retail Sales publication will not be released until next week. The indicator has not impressed, posting two consecutive declines. The markets will be hoping for an improvement in the upcoming release.
2. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. Claimant Count Change is one of the most important economic indicators, and should be treated as a market-mover. The indicator continues to point to strong drops in unemployment, with a reading of -30.4 thousand, which was very close to the forecast. More of the same is expected in the April reading, with an estimate of -31.2 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% last month, well below the estimate of 7.2%. Another decline is expected, with the April estimate standing at 6.8%.
3. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 8:30. The BOE has maintained its QE level at 375 billion for almost two years. The markets are not expecting any change in May. This is an important gauge of consumer inflation, since higher labor costs usually are passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices for goods and services. The indicator has been moving higher throughout 2014, and hit 1.7% last month, just shy of the estimate of 1.8%. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 2.2%. We have not seen a reading above the 2.0% level since last July.
4. BOE Inflation Report: Wednesday, 9:30. This quarterly report is eagerly anticipated by the markets and can have a significant impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The report details the BOE’s forecast for economic growth and inflation over the next two years, and analyst will be combing through for hints as to the Bank’s future monetary policy.
5. CB Leading Index: Thursday, 9:00. The Leading Index is based on 7 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since much of the data has been previously released. The index posted a gain of 0.4% last month, and has posted gains in all but one reading since last July.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6879. The pair climbed to a high of 1.6996. GBP/USD then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 1.6832, as support held at 1.6823 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.6845.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.7375. This line marked the start of a sharp pound rally in March 2006, which saw the GBP/USD push above 2.11.

Next is 1.7180, which has served in a resistance since October 2008. This is followed by 1.6990, which is protecting the key psychological level of 1.70.

1.6823 continues to be busy. The line held steady as the pound dropped sharply late in the week. This line is a weak one, and could see more action early in the week.

1.6705 continues to provide strong support.

The round number of 1.6600 follows. It has remained intact since early April, when the pound started its current rally. 1.6475 is the next support level.

1.6343 saw some activity in early February but has provided strong support since that time.

The final support line for now is 1.6247.

I remain neutral on GBP/USD.

The pound had plenty of punch last week, but showed little change despite all the movement. The 1.70 level remains in place, but came close to falling last week. Employment data has been solid in both countries, and market sentiment remains positive for both the US and UK economies, as speculation mounts as to when the Fed and BOE will make a move and raise interest rates.

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EUR/USD Forecast May 12-16

EUR/USD had an exciting week, getting very close to 1.40 before crashing German ZEW Economic Sentiment, GDP data, Industrial production and final inflation figures are the major events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB did not touch the interest rates and Draghi read out only known mantras in the written statement and EUR/USD got closer to 1.40. But then came the bomb: a move in June is something “the ECB is comfortable with”. This sent the euro plunging down. Was this yet another trick to push the value of euro down? Learning from the second move down to a one month low, we can say that at least for now, the markets take Draghi seriously. Can this move continue? Let’s start.

Updates:

• May 12, 0:17: EURUSD: Weakens, Extends Bearish Momentum: EUR extended its weakness on Friday following through on the back of its Thursday losses. Support lies at the 1.3737...

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The major index of economic expectations for Germany fell for the fourth straight month in April to 43.2 following 46.6 in March, amid fears of escalation in the Ukraine conflict, while current conditions surged again to its highest level since July 2011 reaching 59.5 compared to 51.3 in March. Economic expectations for the Eurozone meanwhile edged down 0.3 point to 61.2 in April. Current conditions by contrast rose 6.2 points to -30.5. Economic Sentiment for Germany is expected to drop to 41.3, while economic climate for the Euro-area is predicted to edge up to 63.5.
2. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The German numbers have a significant contribution to the overall inflation numbers and the Germans certainly have a say regarding ECB moves. Germany initially reported a monthly drop of 0.2% in prices, with a small rise to 1.1%y/y figures. A confirmation of these numbers is expected now.
3. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. Industrial output in the euro-area increased by 0.2% in February, in line with market consensus. Expansion was driven by a 0.6% rise in intermediate goods and a 0.5% increase in non-durable consumer goods. Electronic components posted the strongest growth of 11.5%. The increase indicates that economic recovery in the Eurozone is building momentum. Industrial output is expected to decline 0.3% this time.
4. GDP figures: Thursday. Europe’s economy enjoyed growth in the last quarter of 2013. Eurozone GDP advanced by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, compared to 0.1% growth in the third. The rise was 0.5% higher than the same period in 2012. The fourth-quarter pick-up driven by a return to growth in France and Italy, expanding quarterly for the first time in two and a half years. France increased growth by 0.3% over the quarter, slightly stronger than expected, after a flat growth in the third quarter. Germany, the Eurozone’s largest and strongest economy, reported growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to strong exports. Italian GDP for the final quarter of 2013 inched by 0.1% following a 0.1% decline in the third quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations. The Eurozone is expected to expand by 0.4%, France by 0.4%, Germany is expected to climb 0.7% and Italy by 0.2%.
5. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. ECB monthly bulletin for April detailed the Governing Council’s decision to hold interest rate at the current low level after examining the latest developments in the euro area. The first-quarter readings suggested continued modest with stronger domestic demand. However, risks for euro area economic outlook remain persistent. Inflation remains at low levels with medium to long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. The Governing Council stated that all available monetary tools will be exercised if needed It will be interesting how worried the ECB really is after the talk about an imminent move.
6. Inflation data: Thursday, 9:00. According to the initial numbers for April, euro-zone inflation rose from the bottom, to 0.7% in inflation and 1% in core inflation. The mix of a low level of inflation but not the lowest seen raised the uncertainty towards the ECB decision. Officially, we expect a confirmation of these levels, but a downgrade cannot be ruled out.
7. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 6:45. French Non-Farm work force increased by 0.1% in the last quarter 2013 after a 0.1% fall in the third quarter. Analysts expected a further decline of 0.1% in the last quarter. French labor market is expected to contract by 0.1% this time.
8. Trade balance: Friday, 9:00. The euro zone’s trade surplus increased in February from a year earlier expanding to 15.0 billion euro, from 13.9 billion in January. The rise occurred amid stronger exports with imports remaining unchanged. Exports edged up 3% on the year, after a 1% rise in January, while imports were flat when from a year ago. The Eurozone is showing stronger domestic demand, which increases economic activity. Exports also continue to rise except for Greece. Germany, Europe’s locomotive, saw exports rising by 2.6% in February and imports up by 0.8%. The bloc’s second-largest economy, France, reported a 1.2% monthly increase in exports, with imports falling 7.3%. The euro zone’s trade surplus is expected to increase further reaching 17.3 billion euros.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar started the week with a swift move to the upside, making a clear break above the 1.3905 level (mentioned last week). An attempt to break above 1.40 failed and resulted in a downfall, with the pair closing below the 1.3785 support line.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.4105 provided support for the pair during August 2011. It is followed by 1.4055, which worked as a lower line in that period of time.

The all important round number of 1.40 is now even stronger after the pair was clearly rejected there in early May. Below, the 2014 high of 1.3964 will be closely watched.

The April peak of 1.3905 serves as minor resistance. It is followed by 1.3865 which capped the pair during the same time as well.

1.3830, which was a long serving 2013 peak comes back into the focus after capping the pair in March 2014 and serving as a clear separator several times. 1.3785 worked as support for the pair during April and served as resistance beforehand.

1.3740, which provided some support at the end of 2013 is now key support to the downside. The round number of 1.37, is another support line after capping the pair in December.

1.3650 provided support in December and worked as resistance in September 2013, and is also a significant line. Also the February rally fell short of this line. Below, 1.3560 worked as good support twice during February 2014.

The January 2014 low of 1.3515 provides minor support on the way down. 1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. It is now a key line on the downside.

Trending lines

Uptrend support accompanies the pair since late February and remains intact. Downtrend resistance was broken, but the pair fell back to range. The uptrend support line remains the more important line.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

Draghi’s “bomb” will probably continue sending ricochets. He made it clear that a move is imminent and markets certainly believe him. In theory, a lower value of the euro during May could push inflation higher, and this in turn can push back a move. However, given recent trends, inflation remains low and this will probably be confirmed once again.

In the US, the economy is not really accelerating, but continues growing steadily - enough to keep the QE tapering scheme running, and this leaves the euro to its vulnerabilities.

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USD/JPY Forecast May 12-16

The Japanese yen enjoyed the weakness of the greenback and USD/JPY dropped. Can it bounce from uptrend support?The main event of this busy week is the release of GDP for the first quarter. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The big fall in the USD gave a boost to the yen, which had a slow start to the week due to the holiday. Yellen’s soft words in two testimonies had little positive impact, but the pair managed to stabilize above the moderate uptrend support line. The focus now shifts to Japan.

Updates:

USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s balances have tipped negative as a result of the 2011 catastrophe. The country is importing energy. Nevertheless, the current account deficit remains small and it squeezed to 0.04 trillion yen in February. A wider deficit is likely now.
2. Bank Lending: Sunday, 23:50. Growth in bank lending is yet another measure of money expansion and inflation which the Bank of Japan targets. In March, the y/y rate of lending slid from 2.2% to 2.1%. A similar figure is likely for April.
3. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This PMI-like scale measures workers’ about their future expectations. In March, this indicator surprised with a jump from 53 to 57.9 points, indicating stronger growth. A significant drop is due now.
4. Machine Tool Orders: Monday, 6:00. This is the preliminary version for April. Year over year growth in the back end of the industry rose by 41.8%, a jump from 26.1% in March and certainly a positive sign. Similar strong growth is expected now. 
5. M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. The growth of money is eyed by the BOJ to see monetary expansion. A disappointing rise of 3.5% was seen in March, and a faster growth rate of around 4%, in line with previous months, is likely for April.
6. CGPI: Tuesday, 23:50. This Corporate Goods Price Index rose by 1.7% in March, slowing down. This measure of price growth at the corporate level is now expected to rise together with the sales tax hike.
7. GDP: Wednesday, 23:50. Japan disappointed in the last quarter of 2014 with a growth rate of only 0.2%, even slower than in the third quarter. A stronger rate is expected now for Q1. Note that this is the preliminary publication. Year over year, growth is expected to rise above 1%. The GDP deflation will also be eyed. It was negative last time, reflecting falling prices, and could turn positive now.
8. Tertiary Industry Activity: Wednesday, 23:50. The indicator measures services bought by companies. A disappointing drop of 1% was recorded for the month of February. A bounce back is expected for March, especially in light of the tax hike in April.
9. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 5:00. No less than 5000 households are surveyed by the government to measure the economic climate in Japan. After standing above 40 points for several months, this indicator disappointed and dropped below the round number in the past two months, reaching 37.5 points in March. Another fall is due for April.
10. Industrial Production: Friday, 4:30. The final version of industrial production for March is expected to confirm the gain of 0.3% reported in the initial publication. Note that this figure is quite volatile.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen began the week by holding onto the 102 level, but this not last too long. The pair eventually lost the line and dug lower, moving towards the 101.20 line mentioned last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom

The top line is the peak seen in the turn of the year: 105.44. This was challenged several times. Below, 104.80 capped the pair during January.

104.10, the high of April 2014 is currently a minor line, but should be watched. Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges.

102.74 was a stubborn peak during February and is the top line of the current trading range. 102.00 is a round number that supported the pair several times and is the botom of the range.

101.20 provided strong support for the pair during March 2014 and is the low line of support. 100.75 prevented the pair from falling lower during February and is the last backstop before the round number of 100.

100 is not just a round number but also worked as resistance several times in the past.

Moderate uptrend support

We can observe a moderate uptrend support line (thick black line) accompanying the pair since early March. We have seen a retest of this line once again.

I am bullish  on USD/JPY

The market wanted to sell the US dollar, and the Japanese yen is no exception. In Japan, monetary policy is probably going to remain unchanged, even if there still is a chance for more stimulus. After the big falls we have seen of late, the pair could stabilize. The “sell USD” attitude could change now.

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Forex Weekly Outlook May 12-16

We certainly had an exciting week in currency markets with interesting moves across the board. Will the momentum continue? US Federal Budget Balance, retail sales, inflation and employment data, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.

The US dollar began the week with a huge crash, triggering multi year highs in GBP and NZD. AUD/USD also enjoyed better prospects, Yellen managed to keep markets asleep, and then came Draghi. The ECB did not touch the interest rates and Draghi read out only known mantras in the written statement and EUR/USD got closer to 1.40. But then came the bomb: a move in June is something “the ECB is comfortable with”. More data is needed to confirm this, but the euro didn’t wait and plunged. Late in the week, GBP/USD erased its losses on disappointing data, the loonie reversed its gains on a poor jobs number and EUR/USD went into free-fall mode.

Updates:

1. US Federal Budget Balance: Monday, 18:00. US budget debt narrowed more than expected in in March, reaching $36.9 billion, following $193.5 billion posted in February. Analysts expected a more modest decline to $76.5 billion. The overall trend is positive with a rise in receipts led by 11% fiscal year-to-date increase in corporate taxes and a 7 percent increase in individual taxes and the spending side is coming down including a 6% decline in defense spending.  US Budget Balance is expected to reach a surplus of $112.6 billion.
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investor confidence continued to slide in April reaching 43.2 after posting 46.6 in March. Despite the strong recovery in the first quarter, the six month outlook survey revealed growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its possible effects on manufacturers and exporters in Germany. German investor confidence is expected to continue its downward trend towards 41.3.
3. US retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales surged to a 1-1/2 –year high of 1.1% in March indicating strong recovery in the US economy after a sluggish winter. The increase was evident in all sectors and followed a 0.7% gain in February. Meanwhile Core sales, excluding automobiles edged up 0.7%, the biggest rise in a year. These impressive figures raised new hopes for a boost in growth this year. U.S. retail sales are expected to climb 0.5%, while core sales are expected to increase 0.6%.
4. UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number people claiming jobless benefits in March declined by 30,400 reaching to 1.14 million after a 37,000 drop in the previous month, indicating an ongoing improvement in Britain’s labor market. The unemployment rate also improved to 6.9% from 7.2% in February. Average earnings in the three months to February increased by 1.7% compared with a year earlier. Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, hailed the “strong jobs numbers” as further evidence that the coalition government’s economic plan is working. The number of jobless aid seekers are expected to decline further by 31,200 pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.8%.
5. Mark Carney speaks: Wednesday, 9:30. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak in a press conference, together with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London. Carney stated in March that the Bank’s 2% inflation target became ‘dangerous distraction’ for the UK’s policymakers veiling the true progress made in the UK’s economy. Market volatility is expected. His speech comes on the background of increased talk of a boom in the UK.
6. US PPI: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices edged up 0.5% in March, posting their largest increase in nine months, amid a rise in the cost of food and trade services. The increase was well above market consensus following a 0.1% fall in February. The unexpected rise may be explained by weather related factors, but the wholesale inflation is expected to settle down in April. U.S. producer prices are expected to climb 0.2% this time.
7. BOJ governor Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 4:25. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Market volatility may occur is there is heightened uncertainty regarding the next move of the Bank: will he announce further monetary stimulus?
8. US inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in March, rising 0.2% after a 0.1% climb in the previous month, suggesting inflation is back. In the 12 months through March, consumer prices rose 1.5% after increasing 1.1% over the 12 months through February. Meanwhile, core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food components, also edged up 0.2% in March after rising 0.1% in the prior month. The central bank is expected to end the QE bond purchases later this year. Domestic demand and the labor markets are improving but a rate hike is not expected before the second half of 2015. U.S. consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3%, while core CPI is predicted to climb 0.2%.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for unemployment aid filed last week fell 26,000 to 319,000, indicating the setback seen in the Easter holiday was temporary and the US job market is regaining its strength. Despite the drop in the number of applications. The four-week average increased by 4,500, to a seasonally adjusted 324,750 due to temporary layoffs around the Easter holiday but it is far better than the 343,000 average for 2013. Jobless claims is expected to rise to 321,000.
10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region increased in April to 16.6 from 9.0 in March beating market forecast of a 9.6 reading. New orders edged up to 14.8, the highest level since October, from 5.7. The employment component improved to 6.9 from 1.7, but business conditions for the next six months fell to 26.6 from 35.4. Overall, the survey shows positive growth prospects for the US economy in the coming months. Factory activity in the Philadelphia area is anticipated to decline to13.9.
11. Fed Chair Yellen speaks: Thursday, 23:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC at the National Small Business Week. Yellen may talk about her latest testimony at the US congress. Market volatility is expected, even though she hasn’t said anything new recently.
12. US Building Permits: Friday, 12:30. US building permits fell by 2.4% in March reaching an annualized rate of 990,000.The reading suggests the pace of starts will increase further in the coming months. Single-family starts increased 0.2% compared to the previous year. Economists expect an acceleration in housing construction based on stronger household construction later this year and in 2015. US building permits are expected expand to an annualized rate of 1.01 million.
13. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. Consumer confidence strengthened in April to the highest level since July, rising to 82.6 compared to 80 in March. Improvement in the US labor market contributed to this rise. The reading was better than the 81.2 projected by analysts. Increased employment opportunities and better wages will continue to lift consumer spending as well as consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence is expected to improve further to 84.7.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

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Forex Signal for 12th May 2014

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

For more easy access,,,,,,Download our mobile application on your mobile :   Click Fxsignals 

EUR/USD

 Down Trend : 

 (1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.37820 

Take Profit: 1.37500

Stop Loss:   1.38200

 

GBP/USD

Down Trend:

(1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.68720 

Take Profit: 1.68420

Stop Loss:   1.69120

NOTE: The above posted Signals are delayed 2 - 4 hours after it has been  generated.
Daily forex signals are sent ontime to only our subcribers.

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Forex Signal for 9th May 2014

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)

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EUR/USD

 Down Trend : 

 (1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.38880 

Take Profit: 1.38480

Stop Loss:   1.39300

 

GBP/USD

Down Trend:

(1) SELL

Entry Point: 1.69430 

Take Profit: 1.698000

Stop Loss:   1.70000

NOTE: The above posted Signals are delayed 2 - 4 hours after it has been  generated.
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