Forex Trading Signals for 16th April 2013

                                                                                


Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)


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Forex Signal for 16 April 2013,,,,,,

EUR/USD

Down Trend : BUY

(1) SELL

E/P: 1.30527

T/P: 1.30300

S/L: 1.30900

(2) BUY

E/P: 1.30655

T/P: 1.30900

S/L: 1.30300

 

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GBP/USD

Down Trend: SELL

(1) Sell

E/P: 1.53083

T/P: 1.52800

S/L: 1.53400

(2) SELL

E/P: 1.53051

T/P: 1.52800

S/L: 1.53400

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U.S stocks drop on data, Boston explosions fuel selloff; Dow slips 1.79%

Weaker-than-expected growth and output data of China and in the U.S. sparked a massive selloff in global commodities markets that took U.S. equities down with them in a global risk-off trading session on Monday.

An explosion at the Boston Marathon spooked investors as well and added to the selloff.

At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 1.79%, the S&P 500 index plunged 2.30%, while the Nasdaq Composite index plummeted 2.38%.

Official data out of Beijing revealed that China's gross domestic product expanded by 7.7% year-on-year in the three months to March, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter and well below expectations for 8.0% growth.

Chinese industrial production, meanwhile, also failed to meet market expectations, which further fueled the risk-off trading session.

The Asian giant's industrial production grew 8.9% on-year in March, below market calls for 10.0% growth and also below a 9.9% reading in February.

Chinese retail sales, on the other hand, grew 12.6%, beating market consensus for a 12.5% reading as well as February's 12.3% rate, though the numbers did little to calm nerves.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index, a key gauge of economic health in New York State, fell to 3.1 in April from 9.2 the previous month, falling far short of market expectations for a decline to 7.0.

The news sparked a global risk-off trading session that punished risk-on assets likes stocks and commodities especially hard.

Monday's ultra-bearish data came a day in wake of disappointing indicators in the U.S.
In the U.S. on Friday, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index dropped to a 9-month low in April, falling to 72.3 from 78.6 in the previous month. 

Analysts were expecting the index to tick down to 78.5 this month. 

Also on Thursday, official data revealed that retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.4% in March, defying expectations for a 0.1% rise after a 1% increase the previous month. 

Core retail sales, which are stripped of volatile automobile sales, also dipped 0.4% last month after a 1% increase in February, missing similar expectations for a 0.1% rise. 

Meanwhile, two explosions that took place along the finish line of the Boston Marathon that killed 2 and injured 23 at the time of writing spooked investors as well, which further fueled the selloff.

Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average performers included Wal-Mart Stores, down 0.10%, Verizon Communications, down 0.39%, and Procter & Gamble, down 0.55%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst performers included Caterpillar, down 3.26%, Exxon Mobil, down 2.81%, and Walt Disney, down 2.76%.

European indices, meanwhile, finished lower.

After the close of European trade, the EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.50%, while Germany's DAX 30 finished down 0.41%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 fell 0.64%.

The U.S. on Tuesday is to publish official data on building permits, a key indicator of future construction activity and on housing starts. 

The U.S. is also to release data on its consumer price index, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

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Forex Analysis: GBP/USD Retreats from Key Resistance

GBP/USD (daily chart) as of April 15, 2013 has tentatively retreated from key resistance around the 1.5400 price region, which is also right around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the steep plunge from the 1.6300 area in the beginning of the year to the 1.4830 low in mid-March. The upside correction within the past month has been rather choppy and irregular, but resulted in a net rally of almost 600 pips to correct the plummet of more than 1500 pips in the prior two months.

After the double-test of the 1.5400 resistance area on Thursday and Friday of last week, price has turned to the downside today to respect the strong resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Major support currently resides around the 1.5250 area, which is also in the vicinity of the 50-day moving average. A breakdown below that level would give some indication of GBP/USD attempting a continuation of the entrenched bearish trend, with further downside objectives around 1.5000 and 1.4800. A move above 1.5400 would invalidate this indication and likely further the bullish correction that has been in place for the past month, towards the 1.5600 price region.

James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
City Index Group

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Forex - GBP/USD remains moderately lower after weak U.S. data

The pound remained moderately lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as market sentiment continued to be pressured by global growth concerns, although downbeat U.S. manufacturing data weighed on the greenback. 

GBP/USD hit 1.5305 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since April 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5321, slipping 0.13%. 

Cable was likely to find support at 1.5249, the low of April 9 and resistance at 1.5410, Thursday’s high and a seven-week high.

Market sentiment was hit after official data showed the Chinese economy expanded by 7.7% year-on-year in the three months to March, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter and undershooting expectations for 8.0% growth.

Separate reports showed that Chinese industrial production also came in below expectations in March, while retail sales rose just slightly more than forecast.

In the U.S., data showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to 3.1 in April, from a reading of 9.2 the previous month, compared to expectations for a decline to 7.0. 

Meanwhile, the pound remained somewhat supported after recent U.K. economic data fuelled hopes that the economy could avoid a triple-dip recession in the first quarter.

Sterling was steady against the euro, with EUR/GBP dipping 0.05% to 0.8540.

Also Monday, Eurostat said the euro zone posted a trade surplus of EUR12.0 billion in February, up from a revised surplus of EUR8.7 billion in January. Economists had expected a surplus of EUR9.9 billion in February. 

The report said exports rose 0.1% year-on-year in February, while imports fell by 2.1%.

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Dollar remains broadly higher as growth concerns dominate

The U.S. dollar remained broadly higher against the other major currencies on Monday, as concerns over the outlook for global economic growth continued to support safe haven demand, although U.S. manufacturing data capped the greenback's gains. 

During U.S. morning trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, withEUR/USD slipping 0.21% to 1.3085. 

Sentiment remained under pressure after official data showed that the Chinese economy expanded by 7.7% year-on-year in the three months to March, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter and undershooting expectations for 8.0% growth.

Separate reports showed that Chinese industrial production also came in below expectations, while retail sales rose slightly more than forecast.

The data reinforced concerns over the outlook for global growth after data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in March, the largest decline in nine months. 

Earlier Monday, Eurostat said the euro zone posted a trade surplus of EUR12.0 billion in February, up from a revised surplus of EUR8.7 billion in January. Economists had expected a surplus of EUR9.9 billion in February. 

The greenback was also higher against the pound, with GBP/USDedging down 0.18% to 1.5312. 

Elsewhere, the greenback was lower against the yen, with USD/JPYdeclining 0.38% to trade at 97.99, but higher against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF adding 0.28% to 0.9299. 

The greenback was higher against its Canadian, Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with USD/CAD climbing 0.70% to 1.0206,AUD/USD tumbling 1.02% to 1.0396 and NZD/USD plummeting 1.27% to 0.8479. 

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.16% to 82.35. 

In the U.S., data showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to 3.1 in April, from a reading of 9.2 the previous month, compared to expectations for a decline to 7.0.

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