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Develop a habit of reviewing and analyzing

Develop a habit of reviewing and analyzing your good and bad trades. Then you will have a much better sense of what will work best in your future trades.

Trading is always full of emotions

Because trading is always full of emotions, you must have a trading strategy which includes a set of rules you stick to. This will help protect you from yourself.

software which aims at predicting future trends

While there are a lot of companies who make money by selling software which aims at predicting future trends, the reality is that if this software really worked, these companies would not be giving the secret away.

Trade wisely

There are many beginners who make trades in any direction. While there is a possibility to make profits both on the upside and downside of a trade, trading in the direction of the trend will give you the best chances for success

Invest in a good Forex trading education

The market is always changing and it may be hard to understand and keep up with these changes unless you invest in a good Forex trading education

Sunday 3 March 2013

Forex Trading Signals for 4th March 2013



                                                                                

Japan (Tokyo)                               United Kingdon (London)                        USA (New York)


BONANZA !!!   BONANZA !!!    BONANZA !!!    BONANZA !!! 

We are offering to the first 100 people who will subscribe for our Forex signals for one month
Subscription Price: N 5,500 naira,     $40
Bonanza closing date:  8th March 2013.

Click to subscribe


BUY on the market: GBP/USD

BUY : 
Entry Point : 1.50352
Take Profit:   1.50552
Stop Loss:    1.5000

 2nd,,

Sell on GBP/USD : 

Entry Point : 1.50651
Take Profit:   1.50000
Stop Loss:    1.51000

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We will BUY on the market: EUR/USD
BUY
Entry Point : 1.30184
Take Profit:   1.30400
Stop Loss:    1.29900

2nd  SELL on the market,,,

SELL: 
Entry Point : 1.30244
Take Profit:   1.29900
Stop Loss:   1.30600

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PLEASE NOTE THAT THE DAILY SIGNALS IS SENT ON TIME TO OUR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.


For faster signals services and on time real analysis delivered to your email address and phone number
subscribe to our signals service, click here for more details

OPEN A FOREX TRADING ACCOUNT AND WITHDRAW YOUR PROFIT INTO YOUR NIGERIAN BANK ACCOUNT (NAIRA ACCOUNT).


Wish you all a successful forex trading. Always remember to use your stop loss to avoid much loss on your trading account,,,

One Love Brothers



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HIGH RISK INVESTMENT WARNING: Trading foreign exchange, contracts for differences, or spread bets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the forex market, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. We provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. We recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. 

Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: March 4 - 8

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Natural gas futures edged lower on Friday, as updated weather forecasts pointed to milder weather, weighing on near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked shifting weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on late-winter heating demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April declined 0.8% Friday to settle at USD3.458 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

On the week, natural gas prices rallied 3.6%, the second consecutive weekly advance, as forecasts for cooler weather in the near-term boosted prices earlier in the week.

Nymex natural gas prices rallied to a five-week high of USD3.552 per million British thermal units on Wednesday.

But prices were lower Friday as market players continued to monitor an uncertain U.S. weather outlook. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the temperature outlook for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. is cloudy. 

Meanwhile, private forecaster WSI Energycast said that a "period of warmth and cold across much of the U.S." is likely over the next 11-to-15 days. 

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Market analysts have warned that prices remain vulnerable in the near-term as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in February and March mean less than they do in January.

Concerns over bloated inventory levels were also likely to keep a lid on significant gains. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage fell by 171 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for a drop of 167 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 106 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 118 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.299 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 16% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 120 billion cubic feet to 160 billion cubic feet. Inventories fell by 92 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 107 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for April delivery settled at USD90.92 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, losing 2.6% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for April delivery tumbled 5.35% over the week to settle at USD2.935 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

7 Things No One Will Tell You About Forex Trading

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There are some aspects to trading that a lot of people don’t want to talk about. Especially, people trying to sell you expensive trading systems, some brokers, and other people who might have an interest in keeping some of the not-so-pretty parts of trading ‘under the covers’. Basically, not many other people in the mainstream Forex world are going to tell you many of the ‘ugly’ aspects of becoming a trader, so that’s a role I’ve decided to take on…
Today I want to share with you guys 7 things that no one ever told me when I began trading, and that I didn’t read on any Forex website. Indeed, the 7 points below are all things I figured out through good old trial and error, and in hopes of making your Forex trading journey a little smoother I’d like to share them with you now:

1: You don’t have to be exceptionally smart to trade successfully

Perhaps one of the biggest misconceptions that most people seem to have about professional traders is that they are ultra-smart Ivy-League math-wiz’s who have some super-human ability to make money in the markets. This is really not the case; in fact, many successful traders never even went to college or never finished, like myself, because being a successful trader takes a skill set that is not taught in most schools. In reality, being a successful trader is really more of a psychology-based skill than a technical or numbers-based skill like many people think. You don’t need a college degree to be a profitable trader, and you don’t need to understand calculus. What you really need is to make disciplined and patient trading a habit and a part of your daily trading routine.
So, don’t be overwhelmed by the endless amount of complicated trading systems and messy looking indicators that seem like something only Einstein could make sense of. You need to have emotional intelligence and the ability to control yourself in the presence of constant temptation, but you don’t need to be a mathematician, an economist or even a college graduate to be asuccessful forex trader.

2:  Humans are not naturally good at trading

Whilst it is true that some people are naturally a little better at trading than others, it’s also true that the habits and mindset we need to consistently pull money out of the markets is not something anyone is born with. Basically, we come pre-wired to suck at trading.
Evolution has had a lot more time to have an effect on our more primitive ‘fight or flight’ brain areas than our more advanced brain areas which have evolved much more recently and are the ones we need to be good traders. When we have our real money on the line in the markets, our brains basically behave as if someone or some animal is about to steal all the food we just worked really hard to kill and bring back to the cave. Thus, when we lose that food (money) we get emotional, because we know that we have to work to make that food back AND we are still hungry. Now, in the caveman days, our primitive brain areas would serve us well by urging us to go back out into the woods and hunt another animal…or we will starve.
Fast forward thousands of years and here we are in the 21st century sitting at our computers trying to multiply our hard-earned money (food) by pushing buttons. We have really only lived in the age of computers and modern-technology for about 50 years or so, and electronic trading on the internet is much newer than that. So, the point is that our brains are basically sending us signals as if we are cavemen while we are trading, and this is the reason why we immediately jump back into the market after a loss or why we take bigger risks after we hit a big winner. To overcome this, we have to use our most advanced brain areas like the prefrontal cortex, which are more recently evolved and more adapted to the tasks of planning and holding off near-term temptations for larger longer-term gains.
The point is that it takes a conscious effort to do this, you can’t just think you’re going to ‘run and gun’ in the markets and have no plan or no logic behind what you’re doing. If you do trade in this manner, like a lot of traders, there’s almost a 100% chance that you’ll be operating off of those fight-or-flight brain areas instead of your more highly evolved brain areas which require conscious effort and ‘work’ to make use of.

3: Pro Traders Don’t Think In % Returns

One of the biggest ‘secrets’ of trading is that percent returns don’t really matter. Think about it, if someone tells you they made “100% on their account last year”, what does that really mean? It is not actually a relevant measure of trading performance because it could mean some amateur trader got lucky a few times and turned his $300 dollar account into a $600 account, or it could mean a professional trader followed his plan to the T and banged out a nice return at year’s end, also doubling his account. The point is this…percents don’t actually mean anything in the trading world because they are relative to too many other variables. Let me explain…
Professional traders are not typically reporting annual performance to a group of share holders; rather they are trading for profit on a month-to-month basis. They withdrawal money regularly and live off the profits…therefore their account balance is probably not a reflection of the cumulative profits they have made for that year, because they’ve taken a lot of profits out of the account. Essentially, pro traders don’t track their account value by how much ‘percent’ it is up because they take money out of it and the balance will fluctuate dramatically from month to month depending on profits and losses that occur.
In reality account size and % returns are very arbitrary in professional retail trading, the most important thing is overall risk reward…as in how much you risked vs. how much you gained, and that would be the truest measure of performance and a more genuine benchmark to compare one trader to another. Thus, professional traders are always thinking in terms of risk reward; how much money did I risk last month and how much money did I make?

4: It takes time to become a successful trader

You probably aren’t going to hear this one from anyone in the mainstream Forex world either. Most brokers and people selling “magic-bullet” Forex trading systems really want you to think that trading is easy and that soon you’ll be pulling a full-time income out of the markets.
I am not here to discourage you, because you CAN make money in the markets, I personally know quite a few traders who do, including myself. But, the ones that I know who make money in the markets were willing to put in the hours of trial and error to get to the ‘other side’. They were willing to fix their trading problems which very often meant ‘fixing’ their own mental problems that were preventing them from making money in the markets.
I believe that anyone can be a successful trader if they are willing to work for it. But you have to consciously put in the effort to onlytrade when your edge is present and to not risk more than you should per trade, and for many traders doing these things consistently is almost impossible.
Trading is not for everyone; even if you manage to make a living in the markets, it’s not a 9 to 5 job and you never know for sure how much you will make any given month, some people don’t like this uncertainty, actually most people don’t. This is why some traders try to set goals to make an exact dollar amount each month. But that’s not how the market works…you’ve got to trade to the best of your ability and take what profits you can get. Some months you might make a lot of money and some months you might just breakeven or lose a little bit as a pro trader.

5: Successful Forex trading should be somewhat boring

You probably won’t hear that a consistently profitable trader’s job is boring, because everyone just assumes it’s super awesome and filled with sports cars and a fast life-style. That isn’t always the case.
As a natural result of doing the things that it takes to trade successfully, like being disciplined, patient, having a trading plan, etc, you aren’t going to experience the high highs and low lows that many amateur traders experience on the way to blowing out their trading accounts. Instead, a pro trader is rarely surprised by any result in the market; win, lose or draw; they were prepared for any outcome because they had a plan before they entered.
I am not saying that being a professional trader isn’t fun or an awesome job and lifestyle; I’m just saying it’s quite different from what you might think. It should essentially be a non-emotional event if you are doing it right, like going to work each day. You don’t get super emotional at work every day do you? Once you reach a level where you have eliminated the emotions from your trading and you don’t feel your heart rate increasing when you enter a trade and you don’t get angry after a loss, you will be on the right track.

6: The more you ‘need’ to make money in the markets, the harder it becomes

Perhaps the best way to explain why many traders lose money over the long-run in the markets is because they put too much pressure on themselves to make it. One thing you need to come to grips with early on in your trading career is that it’s YOUR fault if you are losing money, not your brokers, not your trading buddy who told you to “buy the EURUSD because I’m sure it’s going up”…it’s all your fault if you lose money. The only person you are really in competition with in the market is YOU and more specifically, the mental variables flying around inside your head.
For most traders, they come into the markets because they think it’s an easy way to make some fast money, quit their jobs and live on the beach. Unfortunately, the reality is quite a bit different. The reality of trading is that it’s essentially a big paradox. By that I mean, the more you want and need to make money in the markets the less likely you are to do so. Whilst it’s OK to be passionate and enthusiastic about trading, for most traders they simply let those feelings influence their trading decisions too much. When you are excited about a trade, you’re emotional about it…you don’t want to wait 2 years and see your account grow at a respectable pace, instead you want to make exponential gains each week and watch your trading account make you rich. But, again, these feelings are actually causing you to lose money in the markets. You are putting too much pressure and ‘need’ on yourself, and this causes you to try and ‘force’ money from the market by trading too much and risking too much.
Instead, you have to take what the market is offering you, and if it’s not offering any good trading opportunities for a few days, or even for a week or two….THEN IT’S NOT. Just accept that the market is not going to provide you with a high-probability / obvious trade setup every single day, if it did then everyone would be rich. You’ve got to understand what I am telling you here…which is that the real ‘work’ and skill of being a great trader lies in sitting on your hands and having  a very discerning eye and good timing for when to enter and when not to enter. Good traders also know that when in doubt, it’s always better to just not enter a trade.
You will make money faster by trading less frequently, because over the long-run your ability to use discretion in finding a high-probabiltiy price action trading strategy is going to get more and more refined and you’ll naturally filter out more and more potential trade setups, leaving behind the higher probability ones. But, until you have developed this discretionary trading skill to its fullest, you’ll have to err on the side of caution by not trading if you have any doubt about a particular setup.

 7: You Don’t Need Fancy Software or Multiple Trading Screen Setups

Most trading websites are not going to tell you that you really don’t need fancy trading software or multiple trading screen setups to be successful in the markets. The fact is, you don’t need this stuff, and you can actually trade very successfully just from your laptop and a free charting program like metatrader 4. I personally trade from my laptop most of the time as I am on the go a lot and I travel often.
The most important tool in your trading arsenal is you, or more specifically your brain, not trading software, indicators, or multi-screen trading rooms. If you can manage to conquer yourself and your own mental mistakes that are causing you to lose money in the markets, you will be about 80% closer to making consistent money in the market. If you combine that self-mastery with a high-probability trading strategy like price action, you will have everything you need to become a successful trader.

A Simple Plan To Dramatically Improve Your Trading

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Plans give you a “roadmap” of how to go about getting what you want in life. Not having a plan for something makes it harder, it doesn’t matter what it is. Even if you are planning a family vacation that should be full of enjoyment and relaxation, if you don’t have at least a basic guide as to what you will do each day, it’s probably going to end up being confusing, semi-chaotic and highlighted by fights and disagreements rather than fun and laughter. Planning makes everything simpler and easier to accomplish, and a simple plan can put even a complex or lofty goal within reach.
Today, I am going to lay out a simple plan that you can use to improve your trading. The only “catch” with this is whether or not you have the discipline to stick to it. Most people struggle with discipline in the markets, but simplifying your daily trading routine can make it easier to stay on track and remain disciplined. So, let’s discuss the various components of this simple plan that I’ve designed for you and then next week you can get started following it and see if your trading improves.
Note: The steps below are meant as a basic trading guide or plan to help struggling or beginning traders. If you are serious about using this plan, then you should follow it for at least two or three months and then tweak it as you see fit after that.

Step 1: Trade only major markets

The first step to this simple daily trading guide is to be sure you’re only analyzing some of the major markets. I like to stick to themajor forex currency pairs as well as spot Gold, Crude Oil and Dow. Here’s the symbols for the markets that I follow the most frequently and the ones you should follow for this simple trading plan:
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, XAUUSD, WTI, DJ30
That’s 12 markets, more than enough to focus on. If you’re in the USA and you can’t trade spot Gold, Crude or Dow then just focus on the currency pairs I’ve listed.
There really is no need to analyze 20 or 30 markets like many traders do. Besides, if something big happens that really moves the markets, it’s probably going to show up as a price action signal on one of the 12 markets I’ve listed above anyways. If you really want to simplify your daily trading routine, you should scale-back the markets you analyze so that you are just focused on a handful of major markets. The first step in this simple plan is to figure out the markets you will trade and make sure you’re not looking at more than 10 or 12 per day, the list that I use above is suitable for any currency trader to use.

Step 2: Clean up your charts and only trade daily charts

Next, it’s time to get your charts setup. Open the daily charts of the markets I’ve discussed above, or whichever 10 or 12 you want to follow. If you don’t know how to get your charts looking like mine, then read this metatrader 4 tutorial that I wrote, it will help you get all setup.
The second requirement for this simple trading plan is to only look at and trade the daily chart time frames, if you start looking at the 4 hour and 1 hour charts or below, you will have broken your discipline, and I can only vouch that this plan will work for you if you follow it to the T.

Step 3: Pick one setup to trade

This step is critical; you will only be trading one price action signal for this trading routine. Last week, I wrote an article on how to master your trading strategy, I suggest you go read that before implementing the plan I’m laying out in this article. Eventually, you can try learning different entry signals, but for the purpose of this simple trading plan I am designing for you this week, you should only trade one signal. If you start to see that you’ve stopped losing money each month and that your account is growing slowly but surely after using this plan for two or three months, then you can start implementing different entry signals. But, for now, I need you to understand that you have to narrow your focus, remove variables and reduce clutter from your mind and charts to really “turn the corner” in your trading, and the best way to start this process is learning to become a master of one setup at a time.

Step 4: Follow this money management plan

For purposes of simplicity and to show you the power of risk reward, all the trades that you take while following this plan will be set at a 1:2 risk reward. That means, your profit targets will be twice the dollar amount as your risk.
The way to place your stop loss properly is to use the surrounding market structure to figure out the most logical place to put it that gives the trade the best chance at working out but also is not too far away. What this basically means is that you should not place your stop an arbitrary level because you want to trade a certain position size…this is greed, and it will end up working against you in the end. You should have predetermined your 1R risk per trade (this is the dollar amount you risk per trade), then when you find a setup you want to trade you figure out the safest and most logical place to put the stop loss…then you adjust your position size so that you are only risking your predetermined dollar risk amount.
You will place your profit targets with the aim of getting a 2R reward on every trade; that just means two times your risk. However, in placing targets you do also need to consider the surrounding market structure; if a logical 2R reward is not realistically possible because a large key level is in the way, then you might have to reconsider taking the trade.
After you figure out the most logical stop placement you will then adjust your position size down or up to meet your predetermined dollar risk amount. If you need more help on this topic of position sizing, check out this article on risk reward and position sizing.

Step 5: Track your progress in a trading journal

The next part of this simple plan is to make sure you’re recording everything in your trading journal. If you do not have one you canget a trading journal here. Keeping a journal of all your trades is probably something that many traders forget about or that falls to the wayside after a few weeks…but you can’t let it. You NEED the track record created from keeping a journal to make trading feel more like a business and to bring more of a process into your trading routine. The actual process of entering your trades and journaling them will help to keep you disciplined because it reflects back to you your trading results. If your trading results show that you’ve made emotional trading errors like risking more than you knew you should per trade or entering stupid trades that you knew you shouldn’t have…you will see these things in your journal and hopefully you’ll stop doing them.
It’s easy to be lazy and gamble your money in the markets, but when you are forcing yourself to keep a journal of all your trades you will be a lot more aware and conscious of your behavior in the market. If your behavior is that of a gambler, you will then clearly be able to see that YOU are the problem with your trading and that you need to adopt the proper trading mindset to succeed. If your trading journal begins to show a pattern of consistency in following your risk management model and your trading strategy…it will be something you can proud of…few traders have a track record that they are confident in showing to other people or potential investors. You have to use the trading journal as a tool to reinforce positive trading habits and help eradicate negative ones, and you do this by forcing yourself to manually record your trades, think about them and analyze them.

Step 6: Follow the plan

Now, clearly the plan I’ve laid out today will not work if you don’t follow it. You need to be sure that if you commit to this plan you actually follow it. Give it at least two months, and then evaluate where you’re at. Maybe you’ve stopped losing money and are breaking even now, maybe you’ve made a nice profit each month, either way it’s an improvement over losing money each month, and that is the point of the simple plan I’ve laid out here today for you; to get you off the track of hemorrhaging money from your trading account and onto the track of slowly but surely becoming a profitable trader.

Step 7: Challenge yourself

Perhaps the best way to think about the guidelines I’ve laid out for you in today’s article, is that they are a challenge to yourself. Many people have trouble completing even the seemingly simplest tasks; reading a book from cover to cover in two weeks, getting to work on time or early each day, exercising three times a week consistently…whatever the task, it can be very hard for many people to stay focused on it long enough to see its benefits pay off. In trading, this trouble with focus and discipline is an even bigger problem than in most other things we do; because in trading your hard-earned money is on the line each day.
To end today’s lesson, I want you to do something if you’re really serious about following this simple plan that I’ve laid out here today. I want you to either print out this lesson and sign the bottom of it as a pledge that you will follow it, or write yourself a little “commitment” pledge and print it out and sign it. Hang this paper on your wall next to your trading desk or put it somewhere where you will see it each day before you trade. The first step to becoming a profitable trader is seeing if you have the discipline and patience to stick to a simple plan like this for two months. After two months, come back and leave me another comment on this article or drop me an email and tell me about your trading results.

How To Remove Your Fear Of Losing Money When You Place Trades

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If you’re going to be a trader, you’re going to lose money at some point, and in case you are still in the phase of trying to avoid all losing trades and searching for a “Holy-grail” trading system with a 75% strike rate, you should forget about all that right now. As cliché as it may sound, losing really is part of winning as a trader; the two are inseparable. If you don’t learn how to lose properly you will never make consistent money as a trader.
Reality check…ALL pro traders lose money, and they understand that it’s just part of the “game”. Sadly, for many traders, every trade is accompanied by atremendous FEAR of losing money and sometimes intense emotional attachment.
Some of the key reasons why traders become fearful about losing their money include the following:
1. They don’t understand that mathematically, over a series of trades, a trader can lose a majority of their trades and still be widely profitable, simple math proves this.
2. They are simply fearful of losing money in general.
3. They are trading positions that are too big (risking more than they really should be), causing fear, sleepless nights and huge emotional swings.
In the rest of this lesson I’m going to provide you with some insight into the fear of losing money in the markets and how to conquer it. This is some pretty powerful stuff so make sure you actually read the whole article and re-read it if you have to. What you learn here should give you the power to eliminate your fear of losing money in the markets and will help you develop into a confident and emotionally collected trader.

Fear of losing money can be a good, natural emotion, but we need to transform its focus.

Fear of losing money is a good emotion to have in many areas of life, if we did not have it there would be even more chaos in the world and in the markets. Humans are protective of their acquired wealth and property, and rightly so; they worked hard for it.
However, in trading, this natural energy to be defensive and emotional with money needs to be transformed and refocused into a different mental state…
Instead of being fearful of losing your money when trading, embrace the control you have on each trade; a trader has complete control over the risk management of every trade via stop losses and position sizing, [and for more advanced traders, derivatives and hedging mechanisms (not discussed here)]. These risk management tools are your way of being in control of your money/funds, and instead of being “fearful” about losing money, you should feel empowered and confident because you can predetermine how much you are comfortable with potentially losing BEFORE you enter a trade by using these tools.
However, just using these tools to control your risk per trade is not quite enough to totally remove the fear of losing.

Ask yourself some serious questions

If you feel fear or any emotion at all when you place a trade, you need to “slap” yourself in the face and ask yourself 3 big questions (and answer honestly):
1. Do I really have the knowledge and confidence to be trading with real money in the first place?
If you’re trading your hard-earned money in the markets but you don’t know what your trading edge is and you don’t have 100% confidence in your ability to analyze and trade the markets…you probably should not be trading. One of the biggest reasons traders become afraid to lose their money is because they aren’t confident in their own ability to trade! It seems silly I know, but it’s very true; many traders simply don’t have a trading strategy mastered, they don’t have a trading plan, trading journal, etc…they simply aren’t prepared to risk real money in the markets yet…thus they feel fear when they trade.

2. Am I trading a position size that’s too large for my personal risk profile / per-trade risk tolerance?
If you don’t know what your per-trade risk tolerance is, then you need to figure that out first. It’s basically just the dollar amount that you feel like you are 100% comfortable with potentially losing on any trade; because you CAN lose on any trade…remember that. You have to take into account your overall financial situation and then determine how much money you should realistically and honestly have at risk in the market on any one trade…be honest with yourself here. You’ve got to think of yourself as a risk manager and as someone who is managing funds, rather than just a small-time guy trying to get lucky; your trading mindset will directly influence your trading results.
3. Do I truly understand the math’s behind trading?
When I say the “maths behind trading” I am mainly referring to risk reward and how it relates to your overall winning percentage. For example, on a series of 20 trades, you are likely to lose at least 35 to 45% of the trades, and most traders who are successful lose anywhere from 40 to 50% of the time, some even up to 60% of the time. But, through the power of risk reward you can lose more than you win and still come out very profitable. We will expand on this below.

Embrace the belief that losing is OK

Losing is good if you’re cutting your losses quickly and understand that by doing so you’re simply preserving capital and that your winning trades will pay for your losing trades with profit left over. This is the power of your average risk reward ratio over a series of trades coming into play; we will see this in action below…
Even very profitable traders typically lose more than they win, to prove this point let’s take a look at a case study showing 14 trades with a just a 43% win rate. To be clear, that means you are losing 57% of the time and winning just 43% of the time. It can be hard to associate “losing” the majority of your trades with making money, but as I discussed in one of my recent articles, you don’t have to be right to make money trading.
This image shows us that profitable traders can lose more trades than they win and still come out very profitable over a series of trades. Thus, losing money on any one trade should not concern you:

Trust your strategy and Trust the maths

As we can see in the hypothetical track record above, the math shows us that even while losing 57% of our trades, if we let our winners run to around 2 to 1 or better and cut our losses at -1R or less, the profits will take care of themselves. It’s worth noting we included a couple of 1.5R winners, because sometimes it will make more sense to take a reward of slightly less than 2R, depending on market conditions. The average risk reward in this example was 1:1.75, and if you can aim for an average risk reward of around 1:1.5 or 1:2, over the long run you should come out ahead. The “secret” is keeping ALL your losers at 1R or less and ONLY trading when ourprice action trading edge is truly present.
If you follow an actual plan, losing is easier to accept, because at least you had a plan and a roadmap as to what you were trying to do; the brain then sees it as more logical and thus you’re less likely to experience apprehension or fear. The set and forget concept I always talk about will assist with training your brain into accepting losses. You will also avoid interfering with a lot of your trades which can produce unnecessary losses.

The “Sleepless night test”

Everything we said above is accurate and important, but there really is one simple “fear test” that I have found to be very effective for most traders. That test is simply to gauge how you feel at night before you go to bed while you have a trade on. If you find that you can’t stop thinking about your trade(s) or you are glued to your computer screen while you should be sleeping, you are still experiencing fear of losing. So here’s a very simple test for you:

One simple rule…if you can’t go to sleep at night feeling comfortable and at ease with the trade(s) you have on…
1) You’re either trading too big of a position size / risking too much at your stop level
2) Or, you have no idea what you’re doing and lack confidence in your trades

Conclusion:

Fears-are-storiesThe fear of losing money or of losing a trade can be crippling to a trader, causing them to miss out on high-probability trade setupssecond-guess themselves constantly and it can even cause them to be unable to sleep. Clearly, if we are to succeed at trading we have to conquer this fear. Conquering the fear of losing money and trades starts with acceptance; we have to first accept that we are going to lose money and have losing trades, even if we try to avoid them. Thus, there is no sense in “trying” to avoid losing trades, instead we have to learn to roll with them and contain them. We do this by following through with the concepts we discussed above, so let’s sum them up briefly:
• Mastering our price action trading strategy and “trusting” it: master it, own it and believe in it.
• Manage your money and employ solid risk management; this means cutting losses at 1R or less and aiming for a decent risk reward of about 1:2 on each trade. We also need to try and let some winners run to get larger risk rewards like 1:3, 1:4 or more.
• Trust the math: remember the example track record above and that even a 40% win rate can make very good money with an average risk reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5 or more.



Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 4 - 8

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The euro fell to two-and-a-half month lows against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday, as strong U.S. data fuelled expectations for an early end to the Federal Reserve’s easing program.

The euro fell below 1.30 against the dollar for the first time since December 11, with EUR/USD hitting a session low of 1.2967, before settling at 1.3018, down 0.29% for the day and 0.38% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2928, the low of December 11 and resistance at 1.3100, Friday’s high.

The dollar strengthened broadly on Friday after data showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace since June 2011 last month, while a separate report showed that U.S. consumer confidence rose in February.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2 from 53.1 in January, while the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 77.6, from a preliminary reading of 76.3.

The dollar also found support amid worries over U.S. spending cuts, known as the sequester, after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on a deficit reduction plan.

In the euro zone, revised data showed that manufacturing activity in the region contracted in February at the same pace as in January, with the manufacturing PMI unchanged at 47.8. 

The weak data added to speculation over a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday.
A separate report showed that the unemployment rate in the bloc rose to a record 11.9% in January. 

The single currency also remained under pressure amid concerns that that Italy would not be able to continue to implement structural reforms and austerity measures following inconclusive election results.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s ECB policy setting meeting. In addition, Friday’s data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 4

In the euro zone, Spain is to release government data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

Tuesday, March 5

The euro zone is to release final data on service sector activity, while Span and Italy are to release individual reports. The bloc is also to produce official data on retail sales.

In the U.S., the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, March 6

The euro zone is to release revised data on fourth quarter gross domestic product.

The U.S. is to publish data on ADP nonfarm payrolls, which leads government data on nonfarm payrolls by two days. The U.S. is also to release official data on factory orders and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 7

The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Germany is to produce official data on factory orders, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on the trade balance.

Friday, March 8

Germany is to release official data on industrial production, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate and data on average hourly earnings.