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Sunday 3 March 2013

Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: March 4 - 8

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Natural gas futures edged lower on Friday, as updated weather forecasts pointed to milder weather, weighing on near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked shifting weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on late-winter heating demand. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April declined 0.8% Friday to settle at USD3.458 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

On the week, natural gas prices rallied 3.6%, the second consecutive weekly advance, as forecasts for cooler weather in the near-term boosted prices earlier in the week.

Nymex natural gas prices rallied to a five-week high of USD3.552 per million British thermal units on Wednesday.

But prices were lower Friday as market players continued to monitor an uncertain U.S. weather outlook. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the temperature outlook for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. is cloudy. 

Meanwhile, private forecaster WSI Energycast said that a "period of warmth and cold across much of the U.S." is likely over the next 11-to-15 days. 

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Market analysts have warned that prices remain vulnerable in the near-term as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in February and March mean less than they do in January.

Concerns over bloated inventory levels were also likely to keep a lid on significant gains. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage fell by 171 billion cubic feet last week, compared to expectations for a drop of 167 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 106 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 118 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.299 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 16% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 120 billion cubic feet to 160 billion cubic feet. Inventories fell by 92 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 107 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for April delivery settled at USD90.92 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, losing 2.6% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for April delivery tumbled 5.35% over the week to settle at USD2.935 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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