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Monday 8 July 2013

Gold edges higher, but gains capped by Fed stimulus outlook

Gold futures edged higher in rangebound trade on Monday, but gains were expected to remain limited amid concerns the Federal Reserve will start to taper off its bond-buying program by the end of this year.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would end its bond-buying program sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery traded at USD1,218.75 a troy ounce during European morning hours, up 0.5% on the day.

Comex gold prices held in a range between USD1,214.55 a troy ounce, the daily low and a session high of USD1,228.65 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,180.35 a troy ounce, the low from June 28 and a 34-month low and resistance at USD1,249.75, Friday’s session high.

Gold prices tumbled more than 2% on Friday after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. 

May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

Gold prices are on track to post a loss of 27% on the year, the worst yearly decline since 1981, amid speculation the Fed will start to unwind its stimulus program by the year's end.

An exit from the stimulus would deal a heavy blow to gold, which has thrived on demand from investors who buy gold to hedge against the inflationary risks of loose monetary policies. 

Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, for further hints regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery eased up 0.1% to trade at USD18.75 a troy ounce, while copper for September delivery added 0.2% to trade at USD3.072 a pound.

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