GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 29-Oct. 3

The British pound ended the week with slight losses, as GBP/USD closed the week at 1.6234. This week’s key events are Current Account and PMI. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

It was an uneventful week for the handful of British releases, which met expectations. The US economy continued to post strong numbers, as New Home Sales beat the estimate and GDP sparkled with a 4.6% gain in Q2.

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. The BOE’s report regarding lending showed a net value of 3.5 billion pounds in July, well above the estimate of 2.4 billion. The estimate stands at 3.1 billion. More lending usually results in more spending.
2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Monday, 23:05. Consumer confidence remains low, despite an improved UK economy. The indicator came in at 1 point last month, and the forecast for the upcoming release stands at a flat zero points.
3. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. This housing inflation indicator helps track the level of activity in the housing sector. The index jumped 0.8% last month, easily beating the estimate of 0.1%. The markets are expecting another strong release, with an estimate of 0.6%.
4. Current Account: Thursday, 8:30. Current Account, released quarterly, is directly linked to currency demand, since foreigners must by pounds to pay for British exports. The deficit narrowed to 18.5 billion pounds in Q1, but this was higher than the estimate of 17.1 billion. A further reduction is expected in Q2, with an estimate of -16.9 billion.
5. Final GDP: Tuesday, 8:30. Final GDP, released each quarter, continues to post strong readings. The indicator gained 0.8% in Q1 and the same reading is expected in the upcoming release.
6. Preliminary Business Investment: Tuesday, 8:30. This indicator has moved higher for five consecutive quarters. In Q1, the indicator posted an impressive gain of 2.7%, beating the estimate of 2.3%. The estimate for Q2 stands at 2.1%.
7. External BOE MPC Member David Miles Speaks: Tuesday, 17:30. Miles will deliver remarks at an event in London. The markets will be looking for some clues as to the BOE’s future monetary policy.
8. Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. Manufacturing PMI has lost ground in recent releases. The August release dipped to 52.5 points, shy of the estimate of 55.1 points. More of the same is expected, with the estimate standing at 52.6 points.
9. External BOE MPC Member Kristin Forbes: Thursday, 17:30. Forbes will speak at an event in London. BOE policymakers often drop subtle hints regarding the BOE’s future monetary policy.
10. Construction PMI: Thursday, 8:30. The PMI remains at high levels and came in at 64.0 points last month, the indicator’s best showing since January.
11. Services PMI: Thursday, 8:30. This is the last of the PMIs for the week. The index climbed above the 60-point level last month for the first time in 2015, hitting 60.5 points. The estimate stands at 59.1 points.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6309 and touched a high of 1.6415. The pair then retracted and dropped to a low of 1.6234, dipping below support at 1.6250 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.6234.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start off with resistance at 1.6740. This line capped the pair on a recovery attempt in August and is currently high resistance.

1.6660 was a swing low in April and also in August.

1.6615 is the top of the current range after capping it in August. The bottom of the range is at 1.6535.

Below, we have 1.6465, which was the bottom in March. Further below, the round number of 1.64 is providing resistance.

1.6310, the next resistance line, was a cushion during January.

This is followed by support at 1.6250, the low seen in February. The line was breached for a second straight week and has switched to a resistance role.

1.6131 has remained intact since August 2011. At that time, the dollar posted an impressive rally which as GDP/USD dropped close to the 1.53 line.

1.6006 has held firm since October, and stands just above the psychologically important 1.60 level.

1.5909 was last tested in late October.

The final support line for now is 1.5746, which was important support in January.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

US and UK numbers have been solid, and the pound managed to hold its own against the dollar, which posted broad gains last week. With the Fed set to wean the economy off QE in October, there will be more focus on the timing of an interest rate hike. Both central banks are about to tighten, but which currency will have the upper hand?