GBP/USD Outlook March 24-28

GBP/USD lost ground throughout the week, dropping about 160 points. The pair closed the week slightly below the 1.65 line. This week’s highlights are CPI, Retail Sales and Current Account. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British Claimant Count Change looked sharp but it wasn’t enough to prevent the pound from taking a nasty spill last week. In the US, the dollar surged after Janet Yellen’s comments that interest rate could rise early next year.

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 25th-28th. This house inflation indicator is an important gauge of activity in the UK housing market. The index posted a respectable gain of 0.6% last month, matching the forecast.
2.  CPI: Tuesday, 9:30. CPI is considered the most important inflation indicator and an unexpected reading can affect GBP/USD. The index dipped below the 2.0% level last month, the first time it has done so in over four years. CPI has been steadily dropping since mid-2o13, and this trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 1.7%.
3. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Tuesday, 9:30. This indicator has been steadily moving higher, pointing to increased activity in the housing sector as well as stronger consumer spending. The indicator hit a six-year high, jumping to 50.0 thousand last month. This beat the estimate of 47.9 thousand. The estimate for the upcoming release remains at 50.0 thousand.
4. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. This indicator looks at inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index has run into turbulence, posting 5 declines in the past 6 releases. The January reading posted a decline of -0.9%, missing the estimate of -0.4%. The markets are expecting a turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of +0.4%.
5. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30. The Retail Price Index includes housing costs, which are not covered by CPI. The index rose to 2.8% last month, edging above the estimate of 2.7%. The estimate for February stands at 2.6%.
6. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 11:00. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The indicator has been showing some strong movement, and jumped to 37 points in the previous release, up from 14 points a month earlier.
7. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending and often has an impact on the direction of GBP/USD. The indicator took a hit in February, posting a decline of 1.5%. This was lower than the estimate of -0.9%. Better news is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of +0.5%. Will the indicator meet or beat this prediction?
8. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:05. GfK continues to point to weak consumer confidence. The indicator has posted two straight releases of -7 points. Little change is expected in the upcoming release.
9. Current Account: Friday, 9:30. Current Account deficit ballooned to -20.7 billion pounds last month, up from -13.0 billion pounds a month earlier. The markets had expected a deficit of -13.8 billion. The markets are expecting a turnaround in the February release, with an estimate of -13.5 billion. Current Account is closely linked to currency demand, as a rising deficit indicates foreigners are purchasing smaller amounts of pounds.
10. Final GDP: Friday, 9:30. Final GDP, released each quarter, is always eagerly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator has been steady in recent releases, and the estimate for Q4 stands at 0.7%.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6641. The pair quickly touched a high of 1.6666 but it was all downhill from there. GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.6475, which is a support level (discussed last week) and closed the week at 1.6484.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.7180, which has served in a resistance role since October 2008.

1.6990 is next. This line is protecting the key psychological level of 1.70.

1.6823 held firm as the pound moved higher late in the week before retracting. This line has some breathing room as the pound trades just above the 1.67 line.

1.6705 has switched back to a resistance role, following the dollar’s strong move higher.

The round number of 1.6600 was easily broken as the pound fell sharply. It starts off the weak as a strong resistance line.

1.6475 was the low of the week. It is currently a weak support line, and could be tested early in the week.

1.6343 is the next support level. This line saw some activity in early February but has provided strong support since that time. The next support line is 1.6247.

1.6163 was a key resistance line in October and November 2012.

The round number of 1.60 is the final support level for now. This psychologically important level has remained firm since November.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

GBP/USD has hit a serious tailspin, and much will depend on British retail sales and CPI numbers this week.  The taper train continues to chug along in the US and this has helped the dollar. US employment numbers have generally been solid and market sentiment  with regard to the US dollar remains positive.