GBP/USD Outlook March 10-14

GBP/USD showed downward movement but closed the week almost unchanged. The pair ended the week just above the 1.67 line. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Production and the Inflation Report Hearings. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British PMIs releases met expectations, and the BOE maintained interest rates, as was expected. In the US, the markets were pleased with strong employment data from Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls.

Updates:

• Mar 10, 14:59: GBP/USD trend confirmed by the ParabolicSAR signal and the Pivot channel direction: Good afternoon, dear traders. Today, Charles Bean, the vice president of the Bank of England will make a statement at...

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. BOE Deputy Governor Charles Bean Speaks: Monday, 14:15. Bean will speak at an event in Darlington. Remarks that are more bullish than expected are bullish for the British pound.
2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor:Tuesday, 00:01. This indicator measures retail sales in stores belonging to the BRC chain. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending and this indicator will be closely monitored by the markets. The January reading was excellent, with a surge of 3.9%.
3. Manufacturing Production: Tuesday, 9:30. Manufacturing Production is a key event which can move GDP/USD. The indicator posted a modest gain of 0.3% last month, and no change is expected in the upcoming release.
4. Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, 10:00. This event is one of the highlights of the week. Parliament’s Treasury Committee conducts the hearings, and BOE Governor Mark Carney and other policymakers will testify. With inflation running close to the BOE’s target of 2.0%, the markets will be following closely.
5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 15:00. This monthly indicator helps analysts track GDP, which is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator has looked very steady, with the previous release coming in at 0.8%. No major movement is expected in the upcoming release.
6. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 9:30. Trade Balance surprised last month with a smaller deficit than expected. The deficit narrowed to -7.7 billion pounds, bettering the estimate of -9.3 billion. The estimate for the February release stands at -8.7 billion.
7. BOE Quarterly Bulletin: Thursday, 00:01. This report contains market commentary and analysis. It is a minor release.
8. CB Leading Index: Friday, 10:00. The index is based on 7 economic indicators, but most of the data has been previously released, so it is unlikely to impact on GDP/USD.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.6734. The pair touched a low of 1.6640 before reversing directions and climbing to a high of 1.6786.  GBP/USD closed the week at 1.6710, just above support at 1.6705 (discussed last week).

Live chart of GBP/USD:

Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.7383. This line marked the start of a rally by the pound back in April 2006, which climbed as high as the 2.11 level.

1.7180 has served in a resistance role since October 2008.

1.6990 is next. This line has been protecting the key 1.70 level and has held firm since October 2008.

1.6823 held firm as the pound moved higher late in the week before retracting. This line has some breathing room as the pound trades just above the 1.67 line.

1.6705 continues to see action and was breached again this week. The pair ended the week just above this line, which could see more activity early in the week.

The round number of 1.6600 has some breathing room as the pound trades above the 1.67 line.

1.6475 remains a strong support line. 1.6343 is the next support level.

1.6247 is the final support line for now. It was a key resistance line in October and November 2012.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

The pound continues to trade at high levels, buoyed by the British economy, which continues to produce solid numbers. US employment numbers looked strong on Friday, and market sentiment remains positive about the US economy.