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Thursday 7 November 2013

Forex - GBP/USD declines on strong U.S. GDP data

The pound declined against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as strong U.S. economic growth data sent the greenback broadly higher and after the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. 

GBP/USD hit 1.6010 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since Tuesday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6027, shedding 0.33%. 

Cable was likely to find support at 1.5903, the low of November 4 and resistance at 1.6144, the high of October 29. 

The dollar strengthened broadly after the Bureau of Economic Analysis said U.S. gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, beating expectations for growth of 2%. The U.S. economy grew by 2.5% in the previous quarter. 

The strong data fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its asset purchase program sooner-than-expected. 

Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 2 declined by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 336,000.

Analysts had expected U.S. jobless claims to fall by 10,000 to 335,000 last week from the previous week’s total of 345,000. 

Elsewhere, the Bqnk of England's monetary policy committee voted to leave rates on hold at 0.5% and made no changes to the GBP375 billion quantitative easing stimulus package.

The announcement came after economic data earlier this week added to indications that the recovery in the U.K. is deepening.

Sterling was higher against the euro with EUR/GBP retreating 0.71%, to hit 0.8344. 

The euro came under broad selling pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed that the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 0.25% from 0.5%, saying the decision was 'in line' with the ECB's forward guidance on interest rate policy from July.

The bank cut its marginal lending to 0.75% from 1% and left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 0.0%. 

Draghi reiterated that euro zone borrowing costs will remain at their present or lower levels until conditions improve, indicating that further rate cuts are still possible. 

The euro zone may experience "a prolonged period of low inflation", Draghi warned, followed by a gradual return back to the bank’s target of close to, but still below 2%. 

He said the decline in euro zone inflation in October was stronger than expected and added that inflation is expected to remain at low levels in the coming months.

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