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Monday, 4 November 2013

Forex - EUR/USD comes off 6-week lows, upside limited


The euro pulled away from six-week lows against the dollar on Monday after encouraging euro zone manufacturing data, but the shared currency failed to build on gains amid growing expectations for a rate cut from the European Central Bank.

EUR/USD recovered from 1.3442, the lowest since September 18, to hit 1.3510 during European afternoon trade, rising 0.14%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3441, the session low and resistance at 1.3570, the high of October 15.

The euro found support after data on Monday showed that euro zone manufacturing activity edged higher in October.

The euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.3 in October from a final reading of 51.1 in September, unchanged from a preliminary estimate.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 last month from 51.1 in September as new orders and production levels rose.

The euro looked likely to remain under pressure in the run-up the ECB’s monthly meeting on Thursday after data last week showing that euro zone inflation fell to a four year low in October sparked concerns that the bank may cut rates in order to safeguard the fragile economic recovery.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned after unexpectedly strong U.S. manufacturing data on Friday added to expectations that the Federal Reserve could start to taper its stimulus program as soon as next month.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Richard Fisher said Monday that the recent fiscal standoff in Washington counteracted the role of the Fed’s easy money policies in the economic recovery. The comments came during a speech in Sydney.

The euro was slightly higher against the yen, with EUR/JPY easing up 0.11% to 133.31. 

Elsewhere, the euro slipped lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP sliding 0.17% to 0.8456.

Sterling rose to session highs against the dollar and the euro on Monday after data showed that activity in the U.K. construction sector expanded at the fastest rate in six years in October.

The U.K. construction PMI rose to 59.4, the highest level since September 2007, from 58.9 in September. Economists had expected an unchanged reading.

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