Forex Weekly Outlook October 14-18

The US dollar managed to gain against some currencies, as hope for a resolution to the political crisis outweighed fear of a US default for now. German economic sentiment, employment data in the UK and the US as well as US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are the highlight events of this week. There are many pending US figures awaiting the end of the government shutdown. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers coming up.

The ongoing battle between Democrats and Republicans continued last week reducing chances for a debt crisis resolution. An intervention by central banks cannot be ruled out. However minutes released from the last FOMC meeting revealed tapering decision was quite close. Many FOMC members suggested partial tapering in light of the strong economic data release a while back but recent releases before the meeting raised fresh concerns among the policy makers regarding tapering therefore a dominant majority decided not to taper the Fed’s monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Will a debt crisis resolution hoist the US economy back on track? Let’s Start

Updates:

1. UK inflation data: Tuesday 8:30. UK inflation fell to 2.7% in the year to August, from 2.8% in July. However prices move up quicker than salaries which increased 1.0% over the same period. The Bank refrains from raising interest rates despite elevated inflation, since unemployment rate is too high. Oil prices could further raise inflation, remaining stubbornly high. A further decline to 2.6% is expected now.
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German economic sentiment edged up to 49.6 from 42.0 in August, reaching the highest level since April 2010, beating market forecast for a rise to 46.0. This climb is a sign that German economy is strengthening further in light of the economic progress in the Euro-area. German economy picked up 0.7% in the second quarter, boosting investors’ hopes. A small drop to 49.2 is forecasted this time.
3. UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment rate: Wednesday, 8:30. Britain’s unemployment rate narrowed unexpectedly in July to 7.7% from 7.8% in the preceding month, as the number of jobless citizens dropped by 24,000 to 2.487 million, the lowest jobless rate since September-November 2012. This was another indicator of the renewed strength in UK’s job market. Investors project that the job market improvement will continue and that the BOE will raise rates in December 2014. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney estimated that about 750,000 jobs would need to be added over the next three years for unemployment to fall to 7%. The number of jobless Britons is expected to decline by 24,300, while unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 7.7%.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of people applying for U.S. unemployment benefits soared by 66,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 374,000. But the reading was skewed due to corrections in California and job cuts resulting from the government shutdown. However all in all the US labor market conditions are improving, despite recent volatility. A decline to 357,000 is expected now.
5. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region edged up to a 2-1/2-year high in September, reaching 22.3 from 9.3 in August. The reading was well above the 10.2 points anticipated by analysts. The gain occurred due to increase optimism about the near future. Respondents were also unusually optimistic, with the six-month business conditions index jumping to 58.2, the highest since September 2003, from 38.9 in August. A prior release from the Institute for Supply Management was also positive, showing the national factory sector grew at its fastest clip in more than two years in August. Philadelphia area manufacturing index is expected to decline to 15.4.
6. Chinese GDP: Friday, 2:00. The world’s no. 2 economy is expected to show stronger growth in Q3: 7.8%. Growth stood on 7.5% in Q2. While many have doubts about the quality of Chinese data, this figure is closely watched.
7. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Friday, 6:35. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. He will probably address the US shutdown and its possible effects on the Japanese economy. His words will cause volatility in the markets.