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Sunday 6 October 2013

Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: October 7 - 11


The dollar recovered from 20-month lows against the Swiss franc on Friday following reports that Switzerland’s banking regulators are investigating several Swiss banks amid allegations over currency market manipulation.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.9073, up 0.88% for the day, after falling as low as 0.8966 on Thursday, the lowest since February 2012. For the week, the pair ended 0.20% higher.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8966, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9135, the high of September 25.

The Swiss franc weakened after Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority said it was conducting investigations into several Swiss financial institutions in connection with the possible manipulation of foreign exchange rates.

The dollar looked likely to remain under pressure amid concerns that the first U.S. government shutdown for 17 years would derail the fragile economic recovery and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its stimulus program for longer.

Markets were also mulling over how the political impasse in Washington will impact on negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

House Republican Leader John Boehner said Friday the House will not vote on a budget bill without conditions and demanded spending cuts in exchange for raising the government's borrowing limit.

The shutdown meant that Friday’s scheduled release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September was postponed and no new date was given for the release of the data.

In the week ahead, investors will continued to closely monitor political developments in Washington. 

Delays in U.S. economic data releases look likely to fuel uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will hold off on any move to roll back its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Meanwhile, a speech by Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan and Swiss data on retail sales and inflation will be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Monday, October 7

The SNB is to release data on its foreign currency reserves. This data provides investors with an insight into the bank’s currency market operations.

Tuesday, October 8

Switzerland is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as a separate report on consumer price inflation.

Later Tuesday, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak, his comments will be closely watched.

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