GBP/USD Outlook August 5-9

GBP/USD fell sharply but managed to recover most of the losses by the end of the week. The pair dropped one cent on the week, closing at 1.5290.This week’s market-movers include Services PMI, Manufacturing Production and the BOE Inflation Report. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound dropped for most of the week, as the US dollar got a boost from strong GDP and manufacturing numbers. The British Currency managed to turn around on Friday, as UK Construction PMI was excellent while US Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 

1. Halifax HPI: Monday, 5th-7th. This housing inflation index provides a snapshot of activity in the housing sector. The index has been posting gains, and registered a rise of 0.6% last month, beating the estimate of 0.4%. The forecast for the August release stands at 0.3%.
2. Services PMI: Monday, 8:30. This key index has been steadily rising, and came in at 56.9 points in July, easily beating the estimate of 54.6 points. The markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 57.4 points. If the index beats the forecast, we could see the pound post some gains.
3. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01. This retail sales indicator includes those shops which are part of the BRC (British Retail Consortium). The index posted a gain of 1.4% in July, and the markets are hoping for another respectable gain in the upcoming release.
4. Manufacturing Production: Tuesday, 8:30. This market-mover has not looked strong of late, posting two consecutive declines. The indicator dropped 0.8% last month, way off the estimate of 0.3%. The markets are expecting a sharp turnaround in the August release, with an estimate of a healthy 0.9% gain. Will the indicator meet or beat this rosy prediction?
5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 14:00. This indicator is released every month, helping analysts track official GDP, which is released once each quarter. The indicator has been very steady, with two straight readings of 0.6%.
6. BOE Inflation Report: Wednesday, 9:30. This key indicator provides the BOE’s forecast for economic growth and inflationary trends for the next two years. BOE Governor Mark Carney will host a press conference to discuss the report. We could see some volatility from GBP/USD, as both the report and Carney’s follow-up remarks could affect the movement of GBP/USD.
7. Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30. The UK continues to post monthly deficits. The July release came in at -8.5 billion pounds, edging above the estimate of -8.4 billion pounds. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of -8.4 billion pounds.
8. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 9:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators from a wide of array of sectors. However, it has limited impact since most of the indicators have already been released. The index has been very steady, with four of the past five readings coming in at 0.4%.

Live chart of GBP/USD: 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5391. The pair touched a high of 1.5413, but ran into trouble and dropped all the way to 1.5102, breaking past support at 1.5510 (discussed last week). GBP/USD pair bounced back on Friday, closing at 1.5290.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.5832 was busy in late January and has remained in place as a resistance line since February. 1.5752 was last breached in June, marking the peak of a rally by the pound which started in May.

1.5648 saw a lot of activity in June and continues to provide strong resistance. 1.5550 saw action in mid-June, as GBP/USD pushed past and climbed as high as the mid-1.5750 range.

1.5484 was breached in June, as the pound went on a sharp skid that saw it drop below the 1.49 line. 1.5350 was breached as the pair lost ground this week and finds itself in a resistance role.  April.

1.5258 is providing weak support to the pair. It saw action this week and could face more pressure if the dollar continues to improve.

1.5196 is the next line of support. It was easily breached as GBP/USD slid sharply, but remained in place at the  end of the week.

1.5110 was breached as the pair tested the 1.51 line. It has some breathing room as the pound pushed higher at the end of the week. 1.5000 is a critical support level. It has remained in place since early July.

1.4897 saw action early in July, and was breached when GBP/USD began its present rally which saw the pair climb as high as the mid-1.54 range. 1.4781 is the final support level for now. It has remained intact since June 2010.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

The pound had a rough week, and managed to avert sharp losses thanks to a superb Construction PMI release. The US economy is moving along nicely, although there are some hiccups along the way. This is in contrast to the UK economy, which is struggling. If we don’t see some excellent numbers this week, the pound could continue to lose ground.