Forex Weekly Outlook August 26-30

Commodity currencies and the yen lost ground to the dollar, while European currencies remained relatively stable. The upcoming week features the second release of US GDP, durable goods orders and other data that will move markets in the last week of August. Will we see exaggerated strong end-of-month flows? Here is an outlook for the major market moving events.

Last week, The much anticipated FOMC minutes from July’s meeting introduced little novelty; with general support for Chairman Ben Bernanke’s plan of tapering asset purchases this fall, but without conclusive steps or deadlines. The members reiterated  the resolution to start tapering after a substantial pick-up in the economy. The Fed is anticipated to start reducing asset purchases in September, as long as no major surprises turn up in the data. Will the US economy continue to improves as projected? Let’s Start

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods excluding transportation were flat in June, following 0.5% gain in May. Orders for computers and electronic products, and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell, but unfilled orders rising by the most since December 2007. Other good news overshadowing core orders reading was a boost of 0.7% in durable goods orders, a hopeful sign for a pickup in economic growth. A rise of 0.6% is anticipated now.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. German Business Climate advanced in July to 106.2, from 105.9 in the preceding month, supported by the improvement in GDP and other stronger indicators. The Ifo Business Climate Index increased for the third consecutive time, suggesting business conditions are more positive than before.  A further increase to 107.1 is forecasted this time.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. Consumers sentiment declined in July to 80.3 from a revised 82.1 the previous month, amid higher borrowing costs and gasoline prices. The reading fell short of the estimate of 81.1. However, all in all, sentiment is pretty high; the labor market is improving and consumers spending increase and the housing market continues its climb. Another drop to 79.6 is projected now.
4. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Fewer contract to buy previously owned homes were signed in June due to rising mortgage rates. Pending home sales fell 0.4%, missing forecast of 110.9, following a 5.8% surge in the previous month. However the reading was better than the 1.1% decline projected by analysts. Nevertheless, analysts believe, a gradual climb in mortgages will not hurt growth in the housing market. A gain of 0.2%  is anticipated.
5. US Prelim GDP: Thursday, 12:30. According to the initial publication, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in Q2 2013. This came as a positive surprise, but the release contained huge revisions to previous data, so the data was hard to digest. This time, it will be easier: expectations are for a positive upgrade to 2.3%, on the background of trade figures, among others.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.  - The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased to 336K last week following a 5 ½- year low of 320K registered the preceding week. Analysts expected a smaller rose of 326K. Nevertheless the general trend suggests the US job market continues to recover with fewer layoffs and steady hiring. The four-week average, declined by 2,250 to 330,500, posting the sixth straight decline and the lowest for the average since November 2007. The number of claims is expected to decline to 329K.
7. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.2% in May from April, in line with forecasts raising hopes for a strong the second quarter figure. This was the fifth consecutive rise, following a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The Bank of Canada projected that the third-quarter annualized growth would soar to 3.8%, as the economy bounces back from the floods and strike.

*All times are GMT.