Stronger sterling

GBP:  Last month saw some fairly good CPI numbers, the headline rate falling to 2.4%. There were several one-off factors contributing to this, which are likely to unwind this month. The market expects an increase to 2.6%.  A reading stronger than this could offer some further support to sterling, which reached a 4 month high vs. the dollar yesterday.

USD:  At the same time that we are seeing nervousness regarding the prospects for the Fed to become less accommodating, inflation in the US has been moving lower. Market expects increase from 1.1% to 1.4% for the May data. Dollar will be sensitive to the data, softer data pushing dollar lower ahead of Fed meeting tomorrow.

EUR: The ZEW data can impact the euro as it is seen as a precursor to the other surveys.  The sentiment reading for Germany has been relatively steady of late, market expecting move higher from 8.9 to 9.5.

Idea of the Day             

Before the Fed meeting tomorrow evening, sterling provides some distraction. Cable made a 4 month high yesterday in relatively muted trade, with sterling the strongest performer on the majors so far this month (after the yen).  The currency has been helped by the better shine to some of the recent data, reducing expectations that the new Bank of England governor will start next month with an agenda to introduce more stimulus.  The risks to today’s inflation numbers are skewed to the upside as there were one-off factors (partly related to the timing of Easter) in last month’s data that pushed the headline rate lower than was expected.  A stronger reading could mean further sterling strength short-term, but the currency is unlikely to run away as the new governor is still an unknown for sterling, which warrants some caution.

Latest FX News

EUR:  Moving higher into the close yesterday on the back of comments from German Chancellor Merkel, which were not that significant, but managed to give the single currency a lift in otherwise quiet markets.  The move has been unwound in full during the Asia session, bringing EURUSD back towards the 1.33 level. Headlines stated that ECB President Draghi was open to non-standard measures also pushing EUR lower early on.

GBP:  As mentioned above, sterling has been doing fairly well in a quiet fashion, making a 4 month high vs. the USD yesterday. 

AUD: The minutes to the last meeting of the RBA showed the central bank discussing the scope for a further weakening of the exchange rate. This knocked the Aussie lower by some 40 pips, trading briefly below the 0.95 level as European markets open.

JPY: Wedge pattern forming on the daily chart for USDJPY suggesting break one way or the other from the diminishing volatility of recent days.  Data overnight showed industrial production rising 0.9% for the final April data.