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Sunday 16 June 2013

Forex - Weekly outlook: June 17 - 21

The yen ended the week sharply higher against the dollar and the euro on Friday as uncertainty over the future of central bank stimulus measures boosted safe haven inflows into the Japanese currency.

The yen rose to multi-month highs against the dollar and the euro during the week, following steep falls in Japanese equities after the Bank of Japan disappointed market expectations for measures to ease market volatility.

The BoJ’s lack of action, along with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its USD85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program, sparked a broad sell-off in risk assets.

The dollar was lower against the yen for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, with USD/JPY dropping 1.26% to settle at 94.17, and ended the week 3.8% lower, the largest weekly decline since July 2009.

EUR/JPY was down 1.50% to 125.66 at the close on Friday, ending the week 2.73% lower, the worst weekly performance since July 2012.

The euro pared losses against the dollar on Friday following a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data releases.

Data showed that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell unexpectedly in the current month after rising to the highest level in almost six years in May.

Separate reports showed that U.S. industrial production was flat in May, while the capacity utilization rate fell unexpectedly last month.

EUR/USD settled at 1.3342, up from session lows of 1.3296, still down 0.26% for the day.

The pound also trimmed losses against the greenback, with GBP/USDretreating from lows of 1.5616, to settle at 1.5702, just 0.10% lower for the day.

In the coming week, markets will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, as investors look to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for any indication on when the U.S. central bank may start to unwind its easing policies.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to release closely watched data on manufacturing and service sector activity and both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are to release the minutes of their latest policy meetings.

In addition, the Swiss National Bank is to announce its Libor rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 17

Japan is to release official data on tertiary industry activity, an important indicator of economic health. Australia is to produce a report on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

Canada is to produce government data on foreign securities purchases.
The U.S. is to publish the Empire state manufacturing index.

Also Monday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the first day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Tuesday, June 18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Bank of England policymakers are to testify on the inflationary and economic outlook before the U.K. Treasury Committee.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, housing starts and consumer price inflation.

Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers from the G8 group are to hold the second day of a two day summit in Northern Ireland.

Wednesday, June 19

Japan is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. 

New Zealand is to produce data on the current account, while Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.

The BoE is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

Canada is to release official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. The U.S. central bank is also to release its quarterly report on economic and inflation projections.

Thursday, June 20

New Zealand is to release data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

China is to release the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish its annual financial stability report, which assesses the stability of the country’s banking sector. The SNB is also to announce its Libor rate and hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity. France and Germany are also to publish individual reports. In addition, Germany is to produce data on producer price inflation.

The U.K. is to release official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as private sector data on industrial order expectations.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, in addition to data on existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, June 21

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future direction of monetary policy.

The U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing.

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer inflation and retail sales.
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