Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: May 27 - 31

Natural gas futures ended Friday’s session lower, as investors sold contracts to lock in gains from an impressive rally that took prices to the highest level in more than three weeks.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in July shed 0.6% on Friday to settle the week at USD4.284 per million British thermal units.

Earlier in the session, Nymex gas prices rose to a session high of USD4.291 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since May 2.

The July contract rallied 5.25% on the week, the second consecutive weekly gain.

Natural gas futures have been well-supported in recent sessions, climbing almost 9% over the past two weeks, as updated weather forecasting models pointed to a wider swath of above-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S., boosting near-term cooling demand expectations. 

Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning.  

On Thursday, a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed natural gas supplies rose less-than-expected last week.

The EIA data showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 89 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 91 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 75 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 90 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.053 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 3.9% below the five-year average for this time of year. 

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 80 billion cubic feet to 103 billion cubic feet, compared to a 72 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 92 billion cubic feet.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for July delivery settled at USD93.84 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, falling 2.55% on the week. 

Meanwhile, heating oil for July delivery declined 2.8% over the week to settle at USD2.854 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

Nymex floor trading will remain closed on Monday, May 27 because of the Memorial Day holiday. All electronic transactions will be booked with May 28 trades for settlement.