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Sunday 19 May 2013

Forex - Weekly outlook: May 20 - 24

The dollar rallied against the other major currencies on Friday, climbing above 103 per yen after data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in May, climbing to an almost six year high.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May, its highest level since 2007, from 76.4 in the preceding month, outstripping expectations for a reading of 78.0.

A separate report by the Conference Board showed that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in April, more than double the 0.2% increase expected by economists.

The robust data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program this year.

The data came after a series of economic data releases on Thursday raised doubts over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Official data showed that consumer price inflation and housing starts fell more-than-expected in April, while jobless claims posted the largest increase in six months.

The dollar rose to its highest level against the yen since October 2008, with USD/JPY advancing 0.90% to settle at 103.19, extending the week’s gains to 1.46%.

The dollar rose to six-week highs against the euro and the pound, withEUR/USD dropping 0.37% to settle at 1.2834, 1.20% lower for the week and GBP/USD falling 0.65% to settle at 1.5168, down 0.92% for the week.

The dollar hit a nine-month high against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHFup 0.79% to close at 0.9724, gaining 1.65% for the week.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell to a more than two-month lows against the greenback after official data showed that Canadian consumer inflation rose 0.4% year-on-year in April, the slowest rate of growth in more than three years.

The weak data sparked speculation that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates.

USD/CAD hit highs of 1.0312 the pair’s highest since March 8, before trimming gains to settle at 1.0276, 0.83% higher for the day and up 1.68% for the week.

The Australian dollar dropped to an 11-month low against the greenback on Friday, with AUD/USD settling at 0.9736 down 0.73% for the day and extending the week’s losses to 2.4%. The New Zealand dollar hit its lowest level since November, with NZD/USD down 1.07% to 0.8068 at the close, dropping 2.39% for the week.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, as well as testimony on the economic outlook and monetary policy by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Markets will also be watching the outcome of Wednesday’s Bank of Japan policy meeting and euro zone data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 20

The U.K. is to release private sector data on house price inflation.

Markets in Canada are to remain closed for the Victoria Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 21

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, which contain important insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. 

Australia is also to publish an index of leading economic indicators, while New Zealand is to produce official data on inflation expectations.

Germany is to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to produce government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as data on producer and retail price inflation.

Wednesday, May 22

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, a leading economic indicator.

Japan is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s monetary policy statement, which contains important insights into the economic outlook. The BoJ is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

The euro zone is to release data on the current account, while Italy and Germany are to hold government bond auctions. European Union leaders are to hold an economic summit in Brussels.

The Bank of England is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, which contain important insights into economic conditions from the banks perspective. 

The U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing, as well as a report on industrial order expectations.

The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

Canada is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, while the Fed is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the economy and monetary policy in Washington.

Thursday, May 23

China is to release the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index, a leading economic indicator.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity. Germany and France are to produce individual reports. Meanwhile, Spain is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

Later Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.K. is to publish official data on retail sales, as well as revised data on first quarter economic growth and a report on business investment.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, May 24

New Zealand is to publish official data on the trade balance.

The Ifo Institute is to release a closely watched report on German business climate, a leading economic indicator. Germany is also to release revised data on first quarter economic growth and the Gfk index of consumer climate.

The U.K. is to release industry data on mortgage approvals, an important indicator of demand in the housing market.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

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