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Sunday 7 April 2013

Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 8 - 12

The pound rose to six-week highs against the dollar on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report sparked fears that the recovery in the U.S. labor market is running out of steam.

GBP/USD hit session highs of 1.5364, the pair’s highest since February 20 before settling at 1.5344, up 0.73% for the day, extending the week’s gains to 0.80%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5198, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.5507, the high of February 18.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February.

The report came after disappointing data on U.S. manufacturing and service sector activity and private sector job creation earlier in the week.

Sterling was higher against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 0.5% and the size of its asset purchase program unchanged at GBP375 million.

The decision came on the heels of data showing that the U.K. service sector expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in March, fuelling hopes that the economy will narrowly avoid a triple-dip recession.

The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.4 from a reading of 51.8 in February, compared to expectations for a decline to 51.5.

The report said that service sector growth looked likely to offset contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors, with PMI data pointing to overall economic growth of 0.1% in the first quarter.

Elsewhere, the pound was higher against the euro on Friday, withEUR/GBP slipping 0.21% to settle at 0.8474.

The single currency came under pressure after official data showed that retail sales in the euro zone fell 0.3% in February from the previous month and were 1.4% lower year-on-year. 

The weak data underscored concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook for the currency bloc. 

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said weak economic activity in the region had extended into the early part of this year, but added that a gradual recovery should take hold in the second half of the year.

The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold at 0.75%.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, amid speculation over when the central bank may begin to wind down its asset purchase program.

Market participants will also be watching U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday in an attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on the day.

Tuesday, April 9

The U.K. is to publish official data on manufacturing production and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, April 10

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give investors important insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. 

The U.S. is also to release government data on the federal budget balance.

Thursday, April 11 

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on import prices.

Friday, April 12

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on retail sale, producer price inflation and business inventories, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. 

Also Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.
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