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Sunday 31 March 2013

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 1 - 5

The euro was hovering above four-month lows against the dollar in subdued trade on Friday as lingering concerns over a bailout deal for Cyprus and political uncertainty in Italy saw investors shun the single currency.

EUR/USD hit a session low of 1.2794 on Friday, before settling at 1.2821, edging up 0.03% to end the week 0.28% lower.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2752, Wednesday's low and a four-month trough and resistance at 1.2890, the high of March 26.

Banks in Cyprus reopened for the first time in almost two weeks on Thursday with strict capital controls in place, having been closed since March 16 amid fears of a bank run while bailout talks were under way.

On Friday Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said that Cyprus has no intention of leaving the euro zone, saying "in no way will we experiment with the future of our country".

But investors remained wary that the bailout deal for Cyprus could set a precedent for future bailouts in larger euro zone states, with big bank depositors and senior bond holders forced to suffer losses.

Meanwhile, Italy saw borrowing costs edge higher amid growing doubts over whether a stable coalition government can be formed amid political deadlock.

The euro was little changed against the pound and the yen on Friday, with EUR/GBP inching up 0.04% to settle at 0.8440 and EUR/JPY easing up 0.10% to settle at 120.79.

The dollar remained supported following the release of better-than-expected U.S. data on consumer sentiment and personal sending.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index came in at 78.6, up sharply from the preliminary reading of 71.8, and above expectations for a reading of 72.5.

A separate report showed that personal-consumption expenditures in the U.S. rose 0.7% in February, the largest rise since September.

The data came one day after revised data showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.4% in the three months to December, lower than forecasts for a 0.5% expansion.

The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011, but was higher than initial estimates for growth of 0.1%.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing the outcome of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting. The bank is not widely expected make any changes to monetary policy despite uncertainty in the euro zone since its last meeting.

The U.S. is scheduled to release the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 1

Markets in Germany, Italy and France are to remain closed for Easter Monday.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, April 2

Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Spain is to produce government data on the change in the number of people unemployed, a leading indicator of economic health. Spain and Italy are to publish reports on manufacturing activity.

The euro zone is to publish official data on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc.

The U.S. is to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, April 3

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on ADP nonfarm payrolls, which outlines private sector job creation and leads government data by two days. The U.S. is also to produce official data on crude oil stockpiles, while the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. 

Thursday, April 4

Spain and Italy are to release data on service sector activity, while the euro zone is to produce revised data on service sector activity across the currency bloc. Meanwhile, Spain and France are to hold auctions of government debt.

The ECB is also to announce its benchmark interest rate and release its monetary policy statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, April 5

The euro zone is to release official data on retail sales and revised data on fourth quarter economic growth. Germany is to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average hourly earnings and the trade balance.
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